Liam Broady #210United Kingdom22 – 0Hayato Matsuoka #347Japan0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be tight, with both players' recent first sets averaging over 9.5 games.

• H2H first set went to a tiebreak (13 games).
• Broady's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
• Matsuoka's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches and their H2H history point to a competitive match with over 21.5 games.

• Their only H2H match had 28 games (6-7, 6-1, 6-2).
• Broady's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 games per match.
• Matsuoka's last 5 matches averaged 23.6 games per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Matsuoka is likely to keep the match close enough to cover the +3.5 game handicap, even in a loss.

• Matsuoka has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 losses.
• Broady's average winning margin in his last 5 wins is 4.2 games, but against similar-ranked opponents it's tighter.
• H2H match had a 4-game differential (28 total games), but Matsuoka won 10 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Even if Broady wins the first, the second set is likely to be closely contested, pushing the total over 9.5.

• H2H second set had 7 games, but Broady's recent second sets average 9.4 games.
• Matsuoka's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games.
• Both players have a tendency to play longer second sets after competitive openers.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' propensity for tiebreaks and their H2H history, at least one tiebreak is probable.

• H2H match featured a first-set tiebreak.
• Broady's career tiebreak win percentage is 50%, and he has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 15 matches.
• Matsuoka's tiebreak win percentage is 47%, and he has played tiebreaks in 4 of his last 15 matches.