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Predictions graded

Kyrian Jacquet #136France3Vilius Gaubas #129Lithuania0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4 · 7-6Tue 30 Jun 2026, 13:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageVilius Gaubas · 7 places

Kyrian Jacquet

France

French right-hander born 11 May 2001. He reached a career-high No. 102 on 2 February 2026, and his listed finals record is strongest on hard courts. ATP Tour described his 2024 hamstring problem as a past setback during his 2025 rebound rather than a current Wimbledon issue.

Current ranking: #136
Peak ranking: #102 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Vilius Gaubas

Lithuania

Lithuanian right-hander born 29 December 2004 and coached by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez. He reached a career-high No. 101 on 2 March 2026, and his listed Challenger title and finals record is heavily clay-weighted. Tennis.com reported in April 2025 that heat and high bounce suit his game after years training in Alicante.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: #101 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jun 2026, 09:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Kyrian Jacquet's superior serve and 2-0 H2H edge, including a grass win, make him the favorite against Vilius Gaubas in their Wimbledon main-draw debuts.

Jacquet 3-1 set betting offers value at 3.80, while tiebreaks and over 36.5 games are likely in this competitive Bo5 matchup.

Context

Jacquet leads the head-to-head 2-0, winning 6-3 7-5 on grass in 2025 and 6-3 6-2 on clay in 2024.
- In the grass meeting, Jacquet won 84% of first-serve points compared to Gaubas' 61%, and 44% of return points to Gaubas' 34%.
- Jacquet broke serve five times across the two matches while facing only two breaks himself.
Jacquet is 6-2 on grass in 2026, with wins over Skatov (rank 172), Dimitrov (164), and Onclin (178).
- Gaubas is 3-0 on grass in 2026, but his wins came against Lajovic (153, in five sets), Searle (273), and Mmoh (192).
- Jacquet's only grass loss in his last seven was a three-set defeat to Searle, while Gaubas lost his last grass match before this run 6-4 6-0 to Damas (271).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kyrian Jacquet

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Jacquet's dominant H2H serve/return edge and stronger recent grass form give him a clear advantage in this Bo5 Wimbledon opener.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kyrian Jacquet

1.59fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.9%

0.0ppshort

Jacquet's strong first-set record and H2H pattern of early breaks support him taking the opener on grass.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Jacquet's dominant H2H serve/return edge and stronger recent grass form give him a clear advantage in this Bo5 Wimbledon opener.
- H2H: Jacquet leads 2-0, winning 6-3 7-5 on grass in 2025 and 6-3 6-2 on clay in 2024.
- H2H serve: Jacquet won 84% first-serve points vs Gaubas' 61%, and 44% return points vs 34%.
- Recent form: Jacquet 4-1 last 5 (all on grass), Gaubas 3-2 last 5 (mixed surfaces).
- Surface edge: Jacquet 6-2 on grass in 2026, Gaubas 3-0 but with weaker opposition.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKyrian JacquetEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Jacquet wins in straights, competitive sets and Bo5 format make over 36.5 games likely.
- Bo5 grass matches between similar-ranked players often exceed 36 games.
- Gaubas' last Bo5 went 47 games; Jacquet's recent grass wins were straight-set but tight (19, 13, 13 games).
- Both have break-point save rates around 60%, suggesting extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 36.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gaubas' competitiveness and Jacquet's lack of blowout wins suggest Gaubas will stay within 5.5 games.
- Gaubas' recent losses: 4-6 6-4 6-2 (16 games), 6-4 6-2 2-6 7-5 (21 games) – competitive even in defeat.
- Jacquet's wins often tight: 7-6 6-4, 7-6 6-4, 6-1 7-6.
- H2H margins: 6-3 7-5 (4 games), 6-3 6-2 (7 games) – Gaubas covered +5.5 in both.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostVilius Gaubas +5.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The Bo5 format and both players' ability to extend matches make over 3.5 sets a solid expectation.
- Bo5 matches on grass between players outside top 100 often go 4+ sets.
- Gaubas' last Bo5 went 5 sets; Jacquet has not played a Bo5 on grass recently.
- Both have deciding-set win rates above 50%, indicating resilience.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.59
The read
Jacquet's strong first-set record and H2H pattern of early breaks support him taking the opener on grass.
- Jacquet first-set win conversion: 81% career, Gaubas 85% career.
- Recent grass sets: Jacquet won first set in 4 of last 5 matches; Gaubas dropped first set in 2 of last 3 grass matches.
- H2H: Jacquet won first set in both meetings (6-3, 6-3).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKyrian JacquetEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent grass matches feature frequent tiebreaks, making at least one likely in this Bo5.
- Jacquet tiebreak win rate: 57% career, played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 grass matches.
- Gaubas tiebreak win rate: 48% career, played tiebreaks in 2 of last 3 grass matches.
- H2H: no tiebreaks in two meetings, but both are prone to tight sets on grass.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquet's high double-fault rate and Slam debut nerves should push combined double faults over 8.5.
- Jacquet double-fault rate: 4.5% (career 1239 DFs in 405 matches).
- Gaubas double-fault rate: 2.6% (career 589 DFs in 324 matches).
- Pressure of Bo5 Slam debut can increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Grass surface and Bo5 format should push combined aces over 18.5, though both are moderate servers.
- Jacquet ace rate: 4.8% (career 1342 aces in 405 matches).
- Gaubas ace rate: 3.3% (career 747 aces in 324 matches).
- Bo5 grass matches often produce 20+ aces combined.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 18.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-3 7-5Kyrian Jacquet#136vVilius Gaubas#129Jun 25, 2025

W6-3 6-2Kyrian Jacquet#136vVilius Gaubas#129Jul 30, 2024

2 total meetings

Kyrian Jacquet

10W 5L

7-6(5) 6-4 6-4#172Timofey Skatov

7-6(9) 6-4#227Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 7-6(3)#260Pedro Boscardin Dias

4-6 6-2 6-2#273Henry Searle

6-3 7-6(9)#164Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 2-0 ret.#469Mees Rottgering

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#178Gauthier Onclin

1-6 7-6(10) 6-4#123Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2 6-2#94Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-3#220Felix Gill

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#373Nerman Fatic

6-3 7-6(4)#226Lorenzo Giustino

2-6 6-4 6-0#226Lorenzo Giustino

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-1#136Arthur Gea

7-6(3) 6-2#315Jonas Forejtek

Vilius Gaubas

8W 7L

3-6 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-4#153Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 7-6#273Henry Searle

4-6 6-3 6-2#192Michael Mmoh

6-4 6-0#271Miguel Damas

4-6 6-4 6-2#172Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2 2-6 7-5#80Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz

4-6 6-3 6-4#236Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-4 6-1#889Federico Coria

3-6 6-4 6-3#334Petr Brunclik

6-3 2-6 6-1#231Frederico Ferreira Silva

6-4 6-2#117Leandro Riedi

6-3 6-4#4Felix Auger Aliassime

7-5 6-1#57Sebastian Baez

7-6(5) 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#150Rei Sakamoto