United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Corentin Moutet #36France1Marcos Giron #86United States3

Sets 6-4 · 4-6 · 5-7 · 4-6Tue 30 Jun 2026, 14:45 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions4–450%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCorentin Moutet · 50 places

Corentin Moutet

France

Career-high No. 30 on 2026-04-20. His public profile lists Mikael Tillstrom as coach from 2026, and he reached a grass-court ATP final at Mallorca in 2025.

Current ranking: #36
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Marcos Giron

United States

Career-high No. 37 on 2024-08-05. Giron won his first ATP title on grass at Newport in July 2024 and reached Wimbledon's second round in each completed edition from 2021 through 2025.

Current ranking: #86
Peak ranking: #37 · 2024
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jun 2026, 08:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Moutet's 70% career grass win rate and superior return stats give him a narrow edge over Giron in a match expected to be tight and extended.

Back Moutet to win, over 38.5 total games, and a tiebreak to occur, with value in Moutet 3-1 set betting. Avoid the game handicap due to Giron's competitiveness.

Context

Lost to Shelbayh (rank 299) 7-5 6-4 on grass in June 2026.
- Lost to Davidovich Fokina (rank 25) 6-4 6-3 on grass in June 2026.
- Lost to Kyrgios (rank 900) 6-3 6-4 on grass in June 2026.
- Only win in last 5 was 7-6 6-4 7-6 over Mpetshi Perricard (rank 84).
Lost to Draper (rank 160) 6-4 7-6 on grass in June 2026.
- Lost to Choinski (rank 106) 7-5 6-7 7-6 on grass in June 2026.
- Also lost to Buse (rank 34) and Hijikata (rank 83) in recent grass matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Moutet's superior grass-court pedigree and slightly better return stats give him a narrow edge in a Bo5 format where his lefty serve and variety can disrupt Giron's rhythm.
- Moutet leads H2H on grass (no meetings) but won their only clay meeting; Giron won on hard. Grass is neutral.
- Moutet's career grass win% is 21-9 (70%) vs Giron's 31-24 (56%); Moutet's 2025 grass record was 9-4.
- Moutet's recent form: 2-3 in last 5, but both losses to top-25 players; Giron is 2-3 with losses to Draper (160) and Choinski (106).
- Moutet's return points won% (41%) edges Giron's (38%), and Moutet's break point convert rate (44%) is higher than Giron's (39%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCorentin MoutetEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With strong serving and limited return prowess, the first set is likely to be tight, exceeding 9.5 games.
- Both players have high hold rates: Moutet 66% first-serve win%, Giron 72%.
- Recent grass matches: Moutet's last set scores include 7-5, 6-4; Giron's include 7-5, 7-6.
- H2H first sets: 6-4, 6-4 – both over 9.5 games.
- Neither player is a dominant returner, so breaks are scarce early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With two solid servers and returners who don't dominate, expect at least four sets with tight scorelines, pushing total games over 38.5.
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Moutet 51% career, Giron 51% career; recent matches show multiple tiebreaks.
- Giron's last 5 matches: 3 went to deciding sets, 2 had tiebreaks; Moutet's last 5: 2 three-setters, 1 tiebreak.
- H2H matches: 3 sets both times, with one tiebreak; average games per match = 33.5, but Bo5 extends total.
- Both have break point save rates around 60%, indicating many holds and extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 38.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players and their history of tight matches suggest this will go at least four sets.
- Both players have shown resilience: Moutet's deciding set win% is 56%, Giron's is 47%.
- Giron's last 5 matches: 4 went to deciding sets; Moutet's last 5: 2 went to three sets (Bo3).
- H2H matches both went to three sets; Bo5 extends this pattern.
- Neither player is dominant enough to win in straight sets consistently.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Moutet's strong start tendency and Giron's recent slow openings on grass suggest Moutet will take the first set.
- Moutet's first-set win conversion is 82% career; he won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Giron lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including both grass matches this season.
- Moutet's win on first serve% (66%) and break point convert rate (44%) give him an early edge.
- In their only H2H on clay, Moutet won the first set 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonCorentin MoutetEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With two solid servers and limited return dominance, at least one tiebreak is highly likely in a Bo5 match.
- Both players have 51% career tiebreak win rates, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
- Giron's last 5 matches: 4 had at least one tiebreak; Moutet's last 5: 2 had tiebreaks.
- H2H: one match had a tiebreak; both players serve well enough to force breakers.
- Grass often produces tiebreaks due to quick holds.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moutet's propensity for double faults, especially in longer matches, combined with Giron's occasional lapses, should push the total over 8.5.
- Moutet's double fault rate is 4.0% (career), Giron's is 2.9%, but Moutet's is higher under pressure.
- In their H2H, Moutet had 6 double faults in 3 sets; Giron had 4.
- Bo5 match could see 4+ sets, increasing total double faults.
- Moutet's second-serve win% is only 50%, leading to more double faults in tight moments.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L4-6 6-3 6-4Corentin Moutet#36vMarcos Giron#86Mar 14, 2026

W6-4 6-7(7) 6-4Corentin Moutet#36vMarcos Giron#86Apr 27, 2021

2 total meetings

Corentin Moutet

4W 11L

7-5 6-4#299Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#84Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-4#900Nick Kyrgios

6-3 5-7 6-4 3-6 6-3#68Vit Kopriva

6-4 6-4#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#119Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 6-4#85Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-3 6-4#15Lorenzo Musetti

6-4 6-4#34Ignacio Buse

7-5 6-3#12Casper Ruud

6-4 6-1#125Alexandre Muller

4-6 6-3 6-4#94Marco Trungelliti

6-0 6-2#519Taha Baadi

6-1 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

Marcos Giron

5W 10L

6-4 7-6(5)#160Jack Draper

7-5 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#106Jan Choinski

3-6 7-6(3) 6-2#274Charles Broom

3-6 7-5 7-6(8)#34Ignacio Buse

7-5 6-7(4) 6-1#83Rinky Hijikata

7-5 2-6 6-1#297Daniel Evans

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5)#5Ben Shelton

7-6(3) 7-5#163Roberto Bautista Agut

7-5 6-2 6-4#99Yibing Wu

6-3 4-6 7-6(3)#5Ben Shelton

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#338Max Schoenhaus

6-3 6-2#285Sumit Nagal

7-5 6-4#60Marin Cilic

6-3 2-6 7-6(1)#66Roman Andres Burruchaga

6-2 3-6 6-4#70Aleksandar Kovacevic