United KingdomWTA WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Beatriz Haddad Maia #134Brazil0Maria Timofeeva #95Uzbekistan2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Tue 30 Jun 2026, 13:06 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions9–0100%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaria Timofeeva · 39 places

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Brazil

Former world No. 10, reached on June 12, 2023. Preferred surface was not stated in the reliable profile sources reviewed, but her standout headline stretch came on grass with Nottingham and Birmingham titles in 2022. Her 2026 season has included a protected-ranking return and a move to Carlos Martinez Comet.

Current ranking: #134
Peak ranking: #10 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Maria Timofeeva

Uzbekistan

Career high is No. 91, reached on June 15, 2026. Preferred surface was not stated in the reliable profile sources reviewed. Her clearest 2026 trajectory signal is the pair of WTA 125 titles in Makarska and Istanbul.

Current ranking: #95
Peak ranking: #91 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Jun 2026, 09:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Maria Timofeeva's dominant form (10-1 last 11 matches) and grass-court sharpness from qualifying contrast sharply with Beatriz Haddad Maia's 1-12 skid and 0-1 grass record in 2026.

Timofeeva won their only prior meeting and should control this match with her aggressive returning. The best betting angle is Timofeeva to win in straight sets, with the total games staying under 20.5.

Context

Haddad Maia's last 5 matches are all straight-set losses, winning an average of only 6.0 games per match.
- She has lost to players ranked 625, 527, 106, 67, and 47 in that span, showing the slump is not just against elite opponents.
- Her only win in the last 13 matches came against a player ranked 102, and even that required three sets.
Timofeeva's last 5 wins have all been in straight sets, with an average of 12.4 games won per match.
- She recently won WTA 125 titles in Makarska and Istanbul, beating top-100 players like Donna Vekic (No. 34) along the way.
- In Wimbledon qualifying, she dropped only one set across three matches, showing comfort on grass.
Timofeeva won 42% of return points in that match, while Haddad Maia managed only 32%.
- Timofeeva converted 38% of break points; Haddad Maia converted her only break chance but couldn't sustain pressure.
- The match was on hard court, but Timofeeva's flat groundstrokes and return aggression translate well to grass.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maria Timofeeva

1.36fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Timofeeva's dominant recent form (10-1 last 11, 5-0 last 5) and grass-court sharpness from qualifying contrast sharply with Haddad Maia's 1-12 recent skid and 0-1 grass record in 2026, making Timofeeva the clear favorite.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maria Timofeeva

1.44fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Timofeeva's recent first-set dominance and Haddad Maia's struggles align with the model's 68% estimate, but the odds imply a slightly higher probability, leaving minimal edge.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maria Timofeeva

1.44fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Timofeeva's strong second-set record and Haddad Maia's frequent second-set losses support a 65% estimate, but the odds overvalue this outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Timofeeva's dominant recent form (10-1 last 11, 5-0 last 5) and grass-court sharpness from qualifying contrast sharply with Haddad Maia's 1-12 recent skid and 0-1 grass record in 2026, making Timofeeva the clear favorite.
- Timofeeva is 3-1 on grass in 2026, including three straight wins at Wimbledon qualifying this week, while Haddad Maia is 0-1 on grass in 2026 and lost her only grass match 7-5 6-0 to Heather Watson.
- Timofeeva has won 10 of her last 11 matches overall, with the last 5 all wins, while Haddad Maia has lost 12 of her last 13 matches, with the last 5 all losses.
- Timofeeva won the only H2H meeting 7-6(7) 6-3 at the 2024 Australian Open on hard court, and her return-points-won rate (42%) and break-point conversion (38%) in that match were superior to Haddad Maia's (32% and 100% on one chance).
- Timofeeva's career grass win percentage is 3-4 (43%), but her current form and surface comfort are far stronger than Haddad Maia's 36-13 career grass record (73%) which is heavily backloaded to 2022 and earlier; Haddad Maia's 2025 grass was 4-4 and 2026 is 0-1.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been decided in straight sets with relatively few games, and Timofeeva's dominance suggests a quick match under 21.5 games.
- Timofeeva's last 5 wins have all been in straight sets with an average of 18.6 total games per match.
- Haddad Maia's last 5 losses have all been in straight sets with an average of 17.4 total games per match.
- The H2H match had 22 games, but current form suggests a more one-sided contest.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva's recent first-set scores and Haddad Maia's struggles suggest a set with fewer than 9.5 games is plausible, though not a lock.
- Timofeeva's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 (average 8.2 games).
- Haddad Maia's last 5 first sets: 5-7, 5-7, 1-6, 4-6, 3-6 (average 9.4 games).
- Grass often produces quicker sets, and Timofeeva's strong start could lead to a 6-3 or 6-4 set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva's second-set dominance and Haddad Maia's second-set collapses make under 9.5 games a reasonable outcome.
- Timofeeva's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, 6-1 (average 8.0 games).
- Haddad Maia's last 5 second sets: 5-7, 0-6, 2-6, 2-6, 2-6 (average 8.2 games).
- If Timofeeva wins the first set, she often closes out the second set efficiently.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent results overwhelmingly end in straight sets, making a 2-0 outcome highly likely.
- Timofeeva's last 10 wins have all been in straight sets.
- Haddad Maia's last 12 losses have all been in straight sets.
- The H2H match was a straight-set win for Timofeeva.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Timofeeva's straight-set dominance and Haddad Maia's inability to push matches to three sets make a 2-0 Timofeeva win the most likely set-betting outcome.
- Timofeeva has won 10 of her last 11 matches in straight sets.
- Haddad Maia has lost 12 of her last 13 matches in straight sets.
- Timofeeva's grass form and H2H win suggest she can control the match without dropping a set.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMaria Timofeeva 2-0Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Timofeeva's strong first-set record in recent matches and Haddad Maia's struggles to start matches make Timofeeva likely to take the opening set.
- Timofeeva has won the first set in 9 of her last 10 matches, including all three Wimbledon qualifying matches this week.
- Haddad Maia has lost the first set in 11 of her last 13 matches, including her only grass match this year.
- Timofeeva's first-set win conversion rate for her career is 89%, while Haddad Maia's is 87%, but current form heavily favors Timofeeva.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Timofeeva's ability to maintain pressure and close out sets, combined with Haddad Maia's tendency to fade in second sets recently, points to a Timofeeva second-set win.
- Timofeeva has won the second set in 8 of her last 10 completed matches, often closing out matches in straight sets.
- Haddad Maia has lost the second set in 10 of her last 13 matches, including a 6-0 second set in her only grass match this year.
- Timofeeva's serve and return numbers on grass this week show she is holding comfortably and breaking often, while Haddad Maia's recent matches show vulnerability on serve.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva's ability to break serve and Haddad Maia's poor form make a tiebreak unlikely in this match.
- Timofeeva's last 10 matches have had only one tiebreak.
- Haddad Maia's last 10 matches have had two tiebreaks, but she lost both.
- Timofeeva's strong serving and returning on grass this week suggest she can break serve without needing tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and with Timofeeva likely controlling rallies, total aces should stay low.
- Timofeeva's ace rate is 1.9% (career), and she averages about 1-2 aces per match.
- Haddad Maia's ace rate is 3.1% (career), but her recent form and low confidence may reduce her ace count.
- Grass can produce more aces, but neither player is a big server; combined aces likely under 6.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 6.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have above-average double-fault rates, and a combined total over 7.5 is plausible in a match where one player is under pressure.
- Timofeeva's double-fault rate is 5.4% (career), and Haddad Maia's is 5.0% (career).
- In a pressure match, both could commit several double faults; Haddad Maia's recent struggles may lead to more errors.
- Grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to lower bounce and faster conditions.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(7) 6-3Beatriz Haddad Maia#134vMaria Timofeeva#95Jan 19, 2024

1 total meetings

Beatriz Haddad Maia

3W 12L

7-5 7-5#625Sachia Vickery

7-5 6-0#527Heather Watson

1-6 7-6(4) 6-2#106Francesca Jones

6-4 6-2#67Shuai Zhang

6-3 6-2#47Diane Parry

7-6(6) 6-4#132Leolia Jeanjean

6-2 6-1#144Marina Bassols Ribera

6-7(6) 6-4 6-3#102Ashlyn Krueger

6-3 7-6(5)#151Andrea Lazaro Garcia

6-1 6-1#48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-0 6-4#21Maja Chwalinska

6-4 7-6(3)#233Francisca Jorge

6-3 6-2#51Zeynep Sonmez

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4#162Linda Fruhvirtova

6-1 6-7(5) 6-1#48Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Maria Timofeeva

13W 2L

3-6 6-2 6-1#527Heather Watson

6-4 6-2#145Veronika Podrez

6-1 6-4#183Whitney Osuigwe

7-5 6-2#75Renata Zarazua

6-2 6-3#104Darja Semenistaja

6-2 7-5#253Sara Sorribes Tormo

7-5 6-1#275Yasmine Kabbaj

6-4 6-3#352Lea Boskovic

6-3 6-2#237Erika Andreeva

2-6 6-0 6-4#232Maria Lourdes Carle

6-1 6-3#218Cadence Brace

6-4 6-2#34Donna Vekic

6-4 4-6 6-0#229Alice Tubello

7-6(2) 6-3#106Francesca Jones

6-4 6-3#648Adelina Lachinova

Beatriz Haddad Maia #134Brazil0Maria Timofeeva #95Uzbekistan2

Player Profiles

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Maria Timofeeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maria Timofeeva 2-0

Under 20.5

Maria Timofeeva

Maria Timofeeva

Maria Timofeeva

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Beatriz Haddad Maia (4.5) @ 1.80

Head-to-Head

Beatriz Haddad Maia

Maria Timofeeva