Amanda Anisimova #6United States22 – 0Lina Gjorcheska #223North Macedonia0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05

The read

Massive ranking and surface-fit edge for Anisimova, who has proven elite grass performance, against a player with almost no top-level grass experience.

• Anisimova is ranked No. 6, Gjorcheska No. 223.
• Anisimova was 2025 Wimbledon runner-up and has a 26-8 career grass record; Gjorcheska is 3-2 on grass with all wins in 2026 qualifying.
• Anisimova's recent form includes wins over top-50 opponents (Siegemund, Starodubtseva, Raducanu) and a close loss to No. 4 Pegula; Gjorcheska's best recent win is over No. 127 Bronzetti.
• Anisimova's career win percentage on grass is 76.5% vs Gjorcheska's 60% (small sample).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Anisimova's ability to dominate on serve and pressure Gjorcheska's weak second serve should lead to a relatively quick match with few games.

• Anisimova's last 5 wins averaged 17.2 games per match; Gjorcheska's last 5 losses averaged 17.6 games.
• In her three grass wins this year, Gjorcheska conceded only 3, 10, and 6 games, but those were against players ranked 127, 226, and 213.
• Anisimova's grass matches in 2025-2026 have averaged 20.5 games, but against lower-ranked opponents she often keeps it shorter (e.g., 6-1 6-3 vs Siegemund).
• Gjorcheska's serve stats (54% break point save, 43% second-serve win) suggest she will struggle to hold against Anisimova's return (48% break point convert).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Similar to the first set, Anisimova's pressure should lead to a short second set, but Gjorcheska's fighting spirit in recent matches adds uncertainty.

• Anisimova's last 5 second-set wins: 6-3, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 (average 7.4 games).
• Gjorcheska's last 5 second-set losses: 2-6, 3-6, 0-6, 2-6, 3-6 (average 7.6 games).
• In her grass wins, Gjorcheska's second sets were 6-2, 6-2, 6-4, but again against weak opponents.
• Anisimova's break-point conversion rate of 48% suggests she can capitalize on Gjorcheska's second-serve weakness.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11

The read

Anisimova's fast start tendency and Gjorcheska's vulnerability early in matches make a first-set win for the American highly probable.

• Anisimova has won the first set in 12 of her last 15 matches.
• Gjorcheska has lost the first set in 5 of her last 7 matches against top-200 opponents.
• Anisimova's career first-set win percentage is 84%.
• On grass, Anisimova's first-serve points won (64%) and return points won (46%) give her a strong early edge.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.11

The read

Anisimova's consistency and Gjorcheska's fading serve performance in second sets make another set win for the favorite likely.

• Anisimova has won the second set in 11 of her last 15 matches.
• Gjorcheska has lost the second set in 6 of her last 8 matches against top-250 opponents.
• Anisimova's deciding-set win rate is only 50%, but she rarely needs a third set against lower-ranked players.
• Gjorcheska's second-serve win rate drops to 43%, making her vulnerable late in matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

Anisimova's superior serve and return stats, combined with Gjorcheska's struggles against even moderate opposition, make a straight-sets win likely.

• Anisimova has won 7 of her last 10 completed matches in straight sets.
• Gjorcheska lost in straight sets in 4 of her last 7 completed matches against lower-ranked opponents.
• Anisimova's first-set win conversion is 84% career; Gjorcheska's is 87% but against much weaker competition.
• Gjorcheska has played three 3-set matches in her last 15, but all were against players ranked outside the top 200.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The skill gap and Anisimova's ability to break serve consistently make tiebreaks unlikely in this matchup.

• Anisimova's career tiebreak win rate is 54%, but she has played only 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
• Gjorcheska's career tiebreak win rate is 56%, with 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches.
• In their combined last 30 matches, only 4 tiebreaks occurred.
• Anisimova's dominance on serve and return against lower-ranked players reduces the likelihood of close sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate ace counts, and the grass surface should push the total over 5.5, though Gjorcheska's low ace rate against better returners adds some risk.

• Anisimova averages 3.5 aces per match career, but on grass her ace rate is higher (estimated 4-5 per match based on 2025 Wimbledon data).
• Gjorcheska averages 3.1 aces per match, but her ace rate on grass is unknown; she hit 3 aces in her last grass match vs Bronzetti.
• Combined, their career ace rates suggest around 6-7 aces per match.
• Grass courts typically produce more aces due to faster surfaces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high career double-fault rates, and the pressure of a Grand Slam could push the total over 7.5, but recent form shows slightly lower numbers.

• Anisimova averages 5.6 double faults per match career; Gjorcheska averages 6.4.
• In her last 5 matches, Anisimova had double-fault counts of 4, 2, 5, 0 (retirement), 3 (average ~3.5 but higher in longer matches).
• Gjorcheska's last 5 matches: 2, 4, 3, 5, 4 double faults (average 3.6).
• Grass can sometimes increase double faults due to lower bounce and pressure on second serves.