Jelena Ostapenko #3522 – 1Harriet Dart #151United Kingdom1

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Ostapenko's superior grass-court pedigree, dominant H2H win on the same surface, and strong recent form give her a clear edge over Dart, who has struggled on grass this season.

• Ostapenko has a 57-31 career grass record (64.8% win rate) vs Dart's 47-62 (43.1%).
• In 2026, Ostapenko is 3-1 on grass with wins over top-55 players; Dart is 1-4 on grass, losing to players ranked 54, 412, 65.
• H2H: Ostapenko beat Dart 6-3 6-4 on grass at 2023 Wimbledon, winning 77% first-serve points and saving break points effectively.
• Ostapenko's recent form (last 5): 4 wins, including dominant 6-3 6-0 over world No. 54 Sonmez; Dart's last 5: 2 wins, both against lower-ranked opponents.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ostapenko's strong starts and Dart's vulnerability in opening sets make under 9.5 games in set 1 likely.

• Ostapenko's last 5 first sets on grass: 6-1, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 (avg 8.6 games).
• Dart's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 2-6, 5-7, 5-7, 3-6 (avg 9.4 games, but often lopsided).
• H2H first set: 6-3 (9 games).
• Ostapenko's first-serve win rate (65.4%) and Dart's low first-serve percentage (49% in H2H) favor quick holds.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Ostapenko's dominance in second sets and Dart's difficulty holding serve point to a set under 9.5 games.

• Ostapenko's last 5 second sets on grass: 6-0, 6-0, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 (avg 7.4 games).
• Dart's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 (avg 8.6 games, but often losing).
• H2H second set: 6-4 (10 games, but Ostapenko controlled).
• Ostapenko's break point conversion (49.2%) and Dart's break point save rate (54.2%) suggest breaks are likely.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Ostapenko's trend of fast starts and Dart's recent first-set struggles make Ostapenko the likely set 1 winner.

• Ostapenko has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches, including a 6-3 set vs Sonmez (rank 54).
• Dart has lost the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches, including against players ranked 54, 412, and 65.
• In their only H2H on grass, Ostapenko took the first set 6-3.
• Ostapenko's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, indicating strong front-running ability.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Ostapenko's ability to hold serve comfortably and Dart's struggles on return make a tiebreak unlikely in this match.

• Ostapenko's last 10 matches have featured only 1 tiebreak.
• Dart's last 10 matches have featured 2 tiebreaks.
• H2H: No tiebreak in their only meeting.
• Ostapenko's strong first-serve win rate (65.4%) and Dart's low return win rate (34% in H2H) reduce tiebreak likelihood.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Ostapenko's ace rate and the grass surface suggest a combined ace count over 5.5, though Dart's low ace output adds uncertainty.

• Ostapenko averages 4.4 aces per match (career ace rate 4.4%), with 8 aces in the H2H vs Dart.
• Dart averages 2.7 aces per match, but on grass, ace counts can be higher.
• In their H2H, total aces were 10 (Ostapenko 8, Dart 2).
• Grass surface typically increases ace counts due to faster conditions.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown vulnerability to double faults, especially in their H2H, making over 7.5 double faults a reasonable expectation.

• Ostapenko has a high double fault rate (8.1%), averaging 3-4 double faults per match.
• Dart's double fault rate is 5.3%, but she had 8 double faults in the H2H vs Ostapenko.
• In their H2H, total double faults were 14 (Ostapenko 6, Dart 8).
• Pressure situations on grass can lead to more double faults.