Ilia Simakin #302Russia22 – 1Maxime Janvier #568France1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Simakin's superior overall win rate, return game, and break point conversion give him a structural edge, despite both players struggling on clay recently.

• Simakin's career win rate is 65.4% vs Janvier's 49.5%
• Simakin's recent form: 2 wins in last 5 matches, both against lower-ranked opponents; Janvier: 2 wins in last 5, but one was a retirement
• Simakin's return points won: 41% vs Janvier's 37%
• Simakin's break point conversion: 42.2% vs Janvier's 39.4%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match data and clay-court dynamics point to a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Simakin's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games
• Janvier's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games
• Both players have high deciding set rates: Simakin 52%, Janvier 46%
• Clay surface tends to produce longer rallies and more games

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent tight scorelines and Janvier's clay experience suggest he can stay within 3.5 games of Simakin.

• Simakin's average games won in last 5: 12.0, lost: 13.2
• Janvier's average games won in last 5: 11.0, lost: 12.6
• Head-to-head unavailable, but recent margins are tight
• Janvier's experience on clay (202 career wins) may keep it close

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Set 1 has averaged over 9.5 games in recent matches for both, suggesting a tight opening set.

• Simakin's last 5 set 1 games: 10, 10, 9, 9, 9 (avg 9.4)
• Janvier's last 5 set 1 games: 13, 7, 10, 10, 8 (avg 9.6)
• Both players have similar first serve win percentages (~72%)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

High frequency of three-set matches in recent form for both players makes over 2.5 sets likely.

• Simakin's deciding set win rate: 52%
• Janvier's deciding set win rate: 46%
• 4 of Simakin's last 5 matches went to 3 sets
• 3 of Janvier's last 5 matches went to 3 sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tall servers on clay can still produce aces; combined ace rates project over 8.5 aces.

• Simakin's ace rate: 8.5%
• Janvier's ace rate: 6.6%
• Combined ace rate suggests ~9-10 aces in a typical 22-game match
• Both players are tall (193cm and 196cm) with strong serves

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates that project over 5.5 combined double faults.

• Simakin's double fault rate: 3.9%
• Janvier's double fault rate: 5.2%
• Combined double fault rate suggests ~6-7 double faults in a typical match
• Janvier has higher double fault tendency

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Evenly matched serve/return stats and recent tiebreak frequency suggest a tiebreak is plausible.

• Simakin's tiebreak win rate: 51%
• Janvier's tiebreak win rate: 45%
• Both have played multiple tiebreaks recently: Simakin 3 in last 15, Janvier 4 in last 15
• Close sets expected given similar serve/return profiles