Andrew Fenty #383United States22 – 0Masamichi Imamura #431Japan0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Andrew Fenty's superior first-set performance and slightly better quality of opposition in recent wins give him a moderate edge over Masamichi Imamura on hard court.

• Fenty has won 8 of his last 10 matches, including a 6-3 6-3 win over Karl Poling in the previous round of this tournament.
• Imamura's recent form is also strong (8-2 in last 10), but his losses include a straight-set defeat to Jake Delaney (ranked 412) and a loss to Kousuke Ogura (ranked 865).
• Fenty holds a 17-9 hard-court record in 2026, while Imamura is 32-16 on hard courts this year, but Fenty's wins have come against slightly higher-ranked opponents on average.
• Fenty's first-set win conversion rate is 89%, and he has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The first-set game averages for both players hover around 9.5, making over 9.5 a near-even bet.

• Fenty's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.2 games, with 3 sets going over 9.5.
• Imamura's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 sets going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong first-set win percentages, but their opponents often push them to 10+ games in the first set.
• In their last 10 matches, Fenty has played 4 first sets with 10+ games, while Imamura has played 5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Fenty's recent first-set dominance and slightly better first-set game differential make him the favorite to win the opening set.

• Fenty has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches, including his last 4 straight.
• Imamura has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches, but lost it in his two most recent defeats.
• Fenty's career first-set win conversion rate is 89%, compared to Imamura's 90%, but Fenty's recent first-set dominance is more consistent.
• In their last 5 matches, Fenty has dropped only 6.2 games per set on average in the first set, while Imamura has dropped 7.1.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Imamura's low double-fault rate and both players' solid first-serve percentages suggest the total double faults will stay under 6.5.

• Fenty averages 4.1 double faults per match, while Imamura averages 2.3, combining for 6.4 per match.
• In their last 5 matches, Fenty has committed 20 double faults (4.0 per match), and Imamura has committed 11 (2.2 per match).
• Imamura's low double-fault rate (2.3%) helps keep the combined total down.
• Both players have first-serve percentages around 65%, indicating decent serving consistency.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined ace averages of both players hover around 8, making over 8.5 a near coin-flip proposition.

• Fenty averages 4.6 aces per match, while Imamura averages 3.3, combining for 7.9 aces per match on average.
• In their last 5 matches, Fenty has hit 23 aces (4.6 per match), and Imamura has hit 16 (3.2 per match).
• Both players have ace rates above 3% (Fenty 4.6%, Imamura 3.3%), suggesting a combined total of around 8-9 aces in a typical match.
• Hard courts tend to produce more aces, and this match is on hard court.