Milan - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Mili Poljicak #3451Alejo Sanchez Quilez #499Spain2

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 2-6Sun 28 Jun 2026, 10:54 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions4–267%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMili Poljicak · 154 places

Mili Poljicak

Career-high singles ranking No. 257 came on 2025-06-30. Most of his 2026 singles volume has been on clay, where TennisExplorer lists a 23-9 record.

Current ranking: #345
Peak ranking: #257 · 2025
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

Spain

Current singles ranking is No. 499, with a reported career high of No. 455. His 2026 schedule has been mostly clay-based, including Challenger qualifying appearances in Lyon and Parma this month.

Current ranking: #499
Peak ranking: #455
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jun 2026, 10:49 · Europe/Bucharest

Mili Poljicak's strong clay-court record (23-9 in 2026) and powerful serve give him a clear edge over Alejo Sanchez Quilez in this Milan Challenger qualifier.

Back Poljicak to win the match and the first set, but avoid the 2-1 correct score bet due to his straight-sets dominance on clay.

Context

Poljicak is 23-9 on clay in 2026, with a career clay win total of 122.
- He has won 4 of his last 6 clay matches, including a straight-sets win over Andrey Chepelev (rank 369) and a three-set win over Maxim Mrva (rank 290).
- His last two losses were competitive three-set matches against Sumit Nagal (rank 285) and Andrey Chepelev, both on clay.
- Sanchez Quilez is 16-10 on clay in 2026 and lost his most recent clay match in straight sets to Oriol Roca Batalla (rank 316).
Sanchez Quilez played qualifying in Lyon on June 7-8 (two wins) and Parma on June 14-15 (one win, one loss).
- Poljicak last played on June 23, giving him five days of rest before this match.
- Sanchez Quilez's last match was a straight-sets loss on June 15, so he has had 13 days off, but the cumulative June workload is higher.
- No retirement or fitness flags appear in either player's recent match log.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Poljicak's stronger clay pedigree and recent form give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Poljicak is 23-9 on clay in 2026, Sanchez Quilez is 16-10.
- Poljicak has a higher career clay win total (122 vs 70).
- Poljicak's recent form: 4-2 in last 6 clay matches, including wins over players ranked near Sanchez Quilez.
- Sanchez Quilez lost to Oriol Roca Batalla (rank 316) in straight sets in his last match.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMili PoljicakEstimated chance65%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive, pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Poljicak's recent clay matches average 22.3 total games.
- Sanchez Quilez's recent clay matches average 20.8 total games.
- Both players have competitive recent results, suggesting a close match.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Poljicak's high first-set win rate and recent form suggest he will start strongly.
- Poljicak's first-set win conversion rate is 84%.
- Sanchez Quilez's first-set win conversion rate is 90%, but against weaker opposition on average.
- Poljicak has won the first set in 4 of his last 6 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMili PoljicakEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Poljicak's ace rate should push the total over 5.5 even if Sanchez Quilez contributes few.
- Poljicak averages 6.4 aces per match.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 2.0 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match is 8.4.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making over 5.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Poljicak averages 2.6 double faults per match.
- Sanchez Quilez averages 3.2 double faults per match.
- Combined average double faults per match is 5.8.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Mili Poljicak

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 7-5#285Sumit Nagal

7-6(8) 6-3#369Andrey Chepelev

6-2 6-4#653Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-2 3-6 6-1—Bozo Barun

1-6 6-2 6-3#283Duje Ajdukovic

6-4 7-5#369Andrey Chepelev

6-3 7-5—Noah Karma

6-4 6-1—Frano Sucic

6-1 6-2#277Andrej Nedic

6-3 2-6 6-3#290Maxim Mrva

7-6(2) 6-1#429Lucas Poullain

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-5#348Dominic Stricker

6-0 6-1#253Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-5 6-1#457Denis Yevseyev

6-2 2-6 6-4#494Vladyslav Orlov

Alejo Sanchez Quilez

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#316Oriol Roca Batalla

6-2 7-5#698Samuel Vincent Ruggeri

7-5 6-2#186David Jorda Sanchis

6-2 6-3#317Alex Martinez

6-1 6-4—Andrea Baudel

6-4 6-1#286Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-3 6-2#518Karim Bennani

7-5 6-0#752Michiel De Krom

6-1 6-7(3) 6-4#104Damir Dzumhur

7-5 6-4#322Stefan Kozlov

6-7(3) 6-2 6-3#261Fajing Sun

6-4 4-6 6-3#316Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(6) 6-4#388Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-3 6-1#667Yaroslav Demin

7-6(7) 6-4#472Georgii Kravchenko