Enrico Dalla Valle vs Federico Arnaboldi: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Dalla Valle's stronger clay-court performance in 2026 and higher-quality recent wins give him a surface-fit and form edge over Arnaboldi.
- Dalla Valle has a 29-16 clay record in 2026, including recent wins over higher-ranked opponents like Maks Kasnikowski (273) and Oriol Roca Batalla (316).
- Arnaboldi's 2026 clay record is 18-11, but his recent form includes losses to players ranked outside the top 300 (e.g., Petr Nesterov, 396).
- Dalla Valle's last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses, with both losses to top-120 opponents; Arnaboldi's last 5: 4 wins, 1 loss, but against weaker competition (avg opponent rank ~600).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup, with both players showing solid clay-court form, points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 total games.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Arnaboldi's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both players have similar hold/break profiles, suggesting competitive sets and a higher game count.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arnaboldi's ability to keep matches close, even in defeat, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap against Dalla Valle.
- Arnaboldi's recent losses have been competitive, with an average game differential of -4.2 in his last 5 losses.
- Dalla Valle's wins have an average game differential of +5.8, but against weaker opponents.
- In matches against similar-level opponents, Arnaboldi has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFederico Arnaboldi +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively early on, the first set is likely to be tight and surpass 9.5 games.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 9.5 games.
- Arnaboldi's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 9.5 games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 67%, indicating strong service holds early in matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While second sets have been slightly shorter on average, the competitive dynamic and break-point opportunities suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 second sets averaged 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 9.5 games.
- Arnaboldi's last 5 second sets averaged 9.0 games, with 2 of 5 exceeding 9.5 games.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates above 40%, which could lead to more breaks and a higher game count.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Dalla Valle's tendency to start matches strongly, combined with Arnaboldi's recent first-set struggles against better competition, favors Dalla Valle in set 1.
- Dalla Valle has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches, including against top-200 opponents.
- Arnaboldi has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against opponents ranked inside the top 400.
- Dalla Valle's first-set win conversion rate is 88% for his career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arnaboldi's high double-fault rate, combined with Dalla Valle's moderate rate, makes it likely the match will exceed 5.5 double faults.
- Dalla Valle averages 2.6 double faults per match, with a double-fault rate of 2.6%.
- Arnaboldi averages 5.2 double faults per match, with a double-fault rate of 5.2%.
- Combined, their average double faults per match is 7.8, and Arnaboldi's high rate is consistent across surfaces.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total around 9, but recent form and clay-court conditions may suppress ace counts, making over 7.5 a borderline call.
- Dalla Valle averages 5.3 aces per match, with a career ace rate of 5.3%.
- Arnaboldi averages 3.8 aces per match, with a career ace rate of 3.8%.
- Combined, their average aces per match is 9.1, but recent matches have seen slightly lower ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Enrico Dalla Valle #363Italy2Federico Arnaboldi #586Italy0

Player Profiles

Enrico Dalla Valle

Federico Arnaboldi

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Enrico Dalla Valle 2-0

Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Enrico Dalla Valle

Federico Arnaboldi