David Poljak #896Czechia22 – 1Dominik Palan #500Czechia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of both players' recent match lengths and balanced serve/return profiles points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Poljak's last 5 matches averaged 21.2 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Palan's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Both players have similar serve/return stats, with break-point save rates around 60% and convert rates around 42-43%, suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Given the competitive nature of both players' recent matches, Poljak is likely to keep the match close enough to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• Poljak's recent losses have been by margins of 8, 3, 3, and 7 games, but his wins are by 7, 3, 8, 6, and 3 games.
• Palan's recent wins have been by margins of 2, 3, 4, 5, and 5 games, while his losses are by 7, 6, 3, 4, and 7 games.
• The average game differential in their recent matches is around 4-5 games, suggesting Poljak can stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players and their recent three-set frequency suggest a reasonable chance of a deciding set.

• Poljak has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 10 matches, including a win over #497 Martin and a loss to #480 Molleker.
• Palan has gone to three sets in 4 of his last 10 matches, including wins over #557 Isomura and #713 Rifqi.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates around 50%, indicating they are competitive in extended matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace rates suggest a total over 8.5 is plausible, though not a strong lock given the clay surface which typically reduces aces.

• Palan averages 9 aces per 100 serves (ace rate 9%), while Poljak averages 7 aces per 100 serves (ace rate 7%).
• In a typical Bo3 match with around 20 games, combined aces could reach 8-10 based on their rates.
• Palan's higher ace rate and first-serve percentage (64% vs. 60%) give him more opportunities for aces.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Palan's higher double-fault rate, combined with Poljak's moderate rate, makes over 6.5 double faults likely in a full match.

• Palan has a double-fault rate of 6%, while Poljak's is 4.3%.
• In a 20-game match, Palan alone could hit 5-6 double faults based on his rate.
• Poljak's lower rate still contributes 3-4 double faults, pushing the combined total over 6.5.