Cary - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Milavsky #355United States0Ozan Baris #708United States2

Sets 1-6 · 5-7Sun 28 Jun 2026, 17:54 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaniel Milavsky · 353 places

Daniel Milavsky

United States

Structured reference lists Milavsky at No. 355, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 193 cm. Reliable public sources in the required searches did not confirm age, career-high ranking, or preferred surface on June 28, 2026.

Current ranking: #355
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Ozan Baris

United States

Structured reference lists Baris at No. 708, right-handed with a two-handed backhand, and 185 cm. Reliable public sources in the required searches did not confirm age, career-high ranking, or preferred surface on June 28, 2026.

Current ranking: #708
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jun 2026, 11:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Daniel Milavsky's superior ranking, serve stats, and hard-court experience make him a strong favorite over Ozan Baris in this Cary Challenger qualifying match.

Betting value lies in Milavsky to win the match (1.90 odds, 19.4-point edge) and to take the first set (1.90 odds, 12.4-point edge), as his fast starts and straight-set trend should overcome Baris's weaker opposition record.

Context

Milavsky first-serve win rate 73% vs Baris 67%
- Milavsky ace rate 8.6% vs Baris 5.0%
- Milavsky has 49 career hard-court wins vs Baris's 33
Baris's last five wins: opponents ranked 387, unranked, 383, 646, 889
- Baris lost to unranked Maximus Dussault in his most recent match
- Milavsky has faced higher-ranked opponents recently (e.g., 188, 291)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Milavsky's superior ranking, serve stats, and hard-court pedigree give him a clear edge over Baris in this Bo3 qualifying match.
- Milavsky ranking 355 vs Baris 708
- Milavsky 2026 hard court record 8-7, Baris 9-3 but against weaker opposition
- Milavsky career hard court wins 49 vs Baris 33
- Milavsky first serve win% 73% vs Baris 67%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaniel MilavskyEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players involved in competitive sets, suggesting a total games over 21.5 is likely even in a straight-set win.
- Milavsky last 5 matches average 21.6 total games
- Baris last 5 matches average 22.4 total games
- Both players have played multiple three-setters recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Milavsky's recent wins show he can cover a -3.5 game handicap, especially against lower-ranked opponents.
- Milavsky average games won margin +3.2 in last 5 wins
- Baris average games lost margin -3.8 in last 5 losses
- Milavsky covers -3.5 in 3 of last 5 wins
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniel Milavsky -3.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Both players have high first-set conversion rates, but Milavsky's stronger serve and recent form give him the edge to start fast.
- Milavsky first set win conversion 86% career
- Baris first set win conversion 85% but against lower-ranked players
- Milavsky won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaniel MilavskyEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Milavsky's ability to close matches in straight sets against similar-level opponents supports a 2-0 victory.
- Milavsky won 2-0 in 3 of last 5 wins
- Baris lost 2-0 in 2 of last 5 losses
- Milavsky's serve dominance reduces tiebreak/decider risk
BetBugs · Set BettinglostDaniel Milavsky 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The favorite's straight-set trend and the underdog's occasional quick losses point to a match finishing in two sets.
- Milavsky 2-0 in 60% of recent wins
- Baris 0-2 in 40% of recent losses
- Both players have high first-set win conversion
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making under 5.5 likely in a typical match length.
- Milavsky double fault rate 5.1%
- Baris double fault rate 3.7%
- Combined rate suggests ~4 double faults in 22 games
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Milavsky's high ace rate and the hard-court surface should push total aces over 7.5 in a competitive match.
- Milavsky ace rate 8.6% vs Baris 5.0%
- Combined ace rate ~13.6% implies ~8 aces in 22 games
- Hard courts favor servers
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Daniel Milavsky

10W 5L

7-6(4) 3-6 6-4—Lucas Marionneau

6-4 6-1#291Murphy Cassone

4-6 6-3 6-4#474Christian Langmo

6-4 6-4—William Manning

6-3 6-2#188Colton Smith

3-6 7-6(3) 1-0 ret.#346Tung-Lin Wu

3-6 7-6(6) 6-3#660Ryan Colby

6-1 6-0—Oren Vasser

7-6(3) 6-3#554Maxwell Mckennon

6-0 2-1 ret.—Artem Alekseychuk

6-4 6-4—Jerry Roddick

6-1 6-0—Agustin Salazar

6-1 6-4—Lucas Hammond

6-4 3-6 6-4#475Mees Rottgering

7-5 6-1—Drew Van Orderlain

Ozan Baris

10W 5L

1-6 6-3 6-4—Maximus Dussault

1-6 7-5 6-2#387Justin Boulais

7-6(5) 6-4—Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 1-6 6-3#383Andrew Fenty

7-5 7-6(6)#646Duncan Chan

6-3 6-4#889Zsombor Velcz

6-3 6-2#387Justin Boulais

6-3 6-4#886Iiro Vasa

6-4 6-1—Noah Johnston

7-6(6) 7-6(6)#890Theodore Dean

7-6(7) 7-6(3)#869Spencer Johnson

6-3 6-1#675Dmitry Popko

6-1 6-2#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 6-2#403Samuele Pieri

6-1 6-2—Hiromasa Koyama