Cary - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Andrew Fenty #383United States2Karl Poling #507United States0

Sets 6-3 · 6-3Sun 28 Jun 2026, 14:17 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–0100%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrew Fenty · 124 places

Andrew Fenty

United States

American right-hander born March 8, 2000. Structured data lists him at No. 383, while ATP-linked public sources show a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on June 8, 2026. Former Michigan standout.

Current ranking: #383
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Karl Poling

United States

American left-hander born August 4, 1999. Structured data lists him at No. 507, while ATP-linked public sources show a career-high singles ranking of No. 542 on May 26, 2025. Former Princeton and North Carolina player.

Current ranking: #507
Peak ranking: #542 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jun 2026, 11:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrew Fenty's superior hard-court form, 1-0 H2H edge, and strong serving make him a high-confidence favorite over Karl Poling in this Cary qualifying opener.

Expect a straight-sets win for Fenty, with the match likely finishing under 21.5 total games. The best value lies in Fenty 2-0 at 2.10, offering a 12.4-point edge over the implied probability.

Context

Fenty is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, all on hard courts, including wins over ranked opponents like Braden Shick (330) and Enzo Aguiard (498).
- He won 7 of those 8 victories in straight sets, often by comfortable margins (e.g., 6-2 6-1, 6-3 6-4).
- His only losses in this stretch came against Gavin Young (681) in a tight three-setter and Ozan Baris (708) in another three-setter.
Poling lost 6-1 6-0 to Sean Hodkin (1264) on May 5 and 6-1 6-1 to Patrick Brady (870) on April 29.
- He also lost 1-6 6-2 6-2 to Marek Gengel (372) and 7-5 6-4 to Juan Alejandro Hernandez (422) in his last 15 matches.
- While he has wins over higher-ranked players like Nicolas Mejia (168) and Henry Searle (263), the heavy losses suggest vulnerability.
Fenty hit 7 aces and won 78% of first-serve points in that match, while Poling won only 46% on his first serve.
- Fenty converted 67% of break points (4/6), while Poling converted just 33% (1/3).
- The match was on indoor hard, but both players have extensive hard-court experience, and the surface here is outdoor hard.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Andrew Fenty's superior hard-court record, dominant recent form, and prior H2H victory give him a clear edge over Karl Poling in this opening-round qualifying match.
- Fenty leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-2 7-5 on indoor hard in October 2025.
- Fenty's recent form: 8-2 in last 10 matches, all on hard courts, with dominant wins over ranked opponents.
- Poling's recent form: 5-5 in last 10, with two heavy losses (6-1 6-0, 6-1 6-1) and inconsistent results.
- Fenty's career hard-court win percentage: 95-52 (64.6%), Poling: 49-42 (53.8%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches and their only H2H meeting have trended toward relatively quick, straight-set outcomes, supporting under 21.5 total games.
- Fenty's last 5 wins averaged 18.4 total games per match.
- Poling's last 5 losses averaged 19.2 total games per match.
- H2H match had 20 total games (6-2 7-5).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins against similar-level opponents supports covering a -3.5 game handicap.
- Fenty's average games-won margin in last 5 wins: +6.2 games.
- Poling's average games-lost margin in last 5 losses: -6.4 games.
- H2H margin: +5 games for Fenty.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAndrew Fenty -3.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's fast starts and Poling's early-set struggles suggest a relatively short first set, likely under 9.5 games.
- Fenty's average games in first set of last 5 wins: 8.4.
- Poling's average games in first set of last 5 losses: 7.2.
- H2H first set: 8 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Fenty's strong start tendency and Poling's vulnerability early in matches make Fenty the likely winner of the first set.
- Fenty has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Poling has lost the first set in 5 of his last 10 matches, including two 6-1 losses.
- Fenty's first-set win conversion rate is 89% for his career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrew FentyEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Fenty's efficiency in closing matches and Poling's difficulty forcing deciding sets point to a straight-set victory for Fenty.
- Fenty has won in straight sets in 7 of his last 10 victories.
- Poling has lost in straight sets in 6 of his last 10 losses.
- H2H was a straight-set win for Fenty.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonAndrew Fenty 2-0Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to finish in two sets given both players' recent patterns and the one-sided H2H.
- Fenty's last 10 matches: 7 ended in straight sets.
- Poling's last 10 matches: 6 ended in straight sets.
- H2H ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's dominance and Poling's poor tiebreak record (35% career) make a tiebreak unlikely in this matchup.
- Fenty's last 10 matches: only 2 featured a tiebreak.
- Poling's last 10 matches: 4 featured a tiebreak, but he lost 3 of those matches.
- H2H had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's above-average ace rate and the H2H ace count push the total slightly over 7.5, though Poling's low ace rate limits upside.
- Fenty's ace rate: 4.6% (career), Poling's: 2.9%.
- H2H: Fenty hit 7 aces in 2 sets.
- Combined ace rate suggests ~8-10 aces in a typical Bo3 match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With identical double-fault rates, a typical Bo3 match could see 6+ double faults, though the H2H was lower.
- Both players have a double-fault rate of 4.1%.
- H2H: combined 3 double faults in 2 sets.
- Average double faults per match for both: ~3-4 each in Bo3.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 7-5Andrew Fenty#383vKarl Poling#507Oct 13, 2025

1 total meetings

Andrew Fenty

10W 5L

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#681Gavin Young

6-3 6-4#330Braden Shick

6-4 6-2#498Enzo Aguiard

6-2 6-3—Victor Tosetto

6-3 1-6 6-3#708Ozan Baris

6-2 6-1—Lucas Marionneau

6-3 6-3—Thanaphat Boosarawongse

6-1 4-6 6-1#895Timo Legout

6-4 6-4—Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-3#607Bruno Kuzuhara

6-3 6-4#862Kody Pearson

6-1 6-3#387Justin Boulais

6-2 6-1#581Olaf Pieczkowski

6-1 5-7 6-4#889Evan Bynoe

7-6(2) 6-7(3) 6-4#194Michael Mmoh

Karl Poling

8W 7L

6-3 6-7(3) 6-4#675Dmitry Popko

6-2 6-3#420James Kent Trotter

3-6 6-1 7-6(8)#258Andre Ilagan

7-6(2) 3-6 6-3#263Henry Searle

7-5 7-5#318Blaise Bicknell

6-4 6-4#168Nicolas Mejia

6-1 2-6 6-3#581Olaf Pieczkowski

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#404Jay Dylan Hara Friend

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#404Jay Dylan Hara Friend

1-6 6-2 6-2#372Marek Gengel

6-1 6-0#1264Sean Hodkin

6-1 6-1#870Patrick Brady

7-5 6-4#422Juan Alejandro Hernandez

6-4 6-7(5) 6-1#578Robin Catry

6-3 4-1 ret.#460Mateus Alves