Inaki Montes-De La Torre #312Spain22 – 1Sandro Kopp #326Austria1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Montes-De La Torre's superior recent form on clay and fresher physical condition give him a moderate edge in this final.

• Montes-De La Torre has won 9 of his last 10 completed matches on clay, with only one loss in that span (to Dylan Dietrich in a tight three-setter).
• Kopp has played 8 matches in the last 8 days, including multiple three-setters, and may be fatigued.
• Montes-De La Torre's return points won percentage (46%) is significantly higher than Kopp's (40%), giving him an edge in breaking serve.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Kopp's consistency in keeping matches close and his strong serve make him likely to cover the +3.5 game handicap.

• Kopp has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 12 of his last 15 matches, including all four this week.
• Montes-De La Torre's average winning margin in his last five wins is 5.4 games, but Kopp is a tougher opponent than most he faced.
• Kopp's serve stats (first-serve win percentage 66.3%) and break-point save rate (58.9%) help him stay close in games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Kopp's recent trend of long matches and both players' ability to save break points suggest a match with over 21.5 games.

• Kopp's last four matches have all gone over 21.5 total games, with three of them being three-setters.
• Montes-De La Torre's last three matches have averaged 20.3 games, but his opponents were weaker; Kopp is a tougher challenger.
• Both players have high break-point save rates (Montes-De La Torre 56.3%, Kopp 58.9%), which can extend games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Kopp's recent trend of long first sets and both players' serving ability suggest over 9.5 games in the first set.

• Kopp's last five first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with three going over 9.5.
• Montes-De La Torre's last five first sets have averaged 9.0 games, but against stronger opponents they tend to be longer.
• Both players have high first-serve win percentages, which can extend sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Montes-De La Torre's consistent fast starts and Kopp's potential fatigue make him the likely first-set winner.

• Montes-De La Torre has won the first set in 13 of his last 15 matches, including all four matches this week in Plovdiv.
• Kopp has dropped the first set in two of his last five matches, including a 6-2 loss in his most recent match.
• Montes-De La Torre's first-set win conversion rate is 91%, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' ace rates and recent match data suggest a combined total over 7.5 aces is likely.

• Kopp averages 3.9 aces per match, while Montes-De La Torre averages 2.1, combining for 6.0 on average.
• In best-of-three matches, Kopp has hit 5+ aces in four of his last five matches.
• Montes-De La Torre has hit 3+ aces in three of his last five matches, contributing to a higher total.