Targu Mures - RomaniaFinished

Predictions graded

Felix Balshaw #320France2Andrej Nedic #277Bosnia & Herzegovina0

Sets 7-6 · 7-5Fri 26 Jun 2026, 09:20 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions6–186%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Nedic · 43 places

Felix Balshaw

France

Reliable public profile information was thin in the required searches. Structured match data lists him as a 193 cm right-hander with a one-handed backhand and current ranking No. 320 for this match context.

Current ranking: #320
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Andrej Nedic

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Public records show his career-high ATP singles ranking was No. 245 on 25 May 2026. Publicly visible results records are heavily clay-based, and the required searches did not surface a current injury or comeback storyline.

Current ranking: #277
Peak ranking: #245 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jun 2026, 22:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Felix Balshaw's dominant clay form (11-1 in last 12) and 96% first-set win rate give him a clear edge over Andrej Nedic, who has struggled against top-200 opponents.

Balshaw is a justified favorite at 1.60, but the odds offer no value, with a slight negative edge. The most likely outcome is a straight-set win for Balshaw, though Nedic's competitiveness could push total games over 21.5.

Context

Balshaw has won 11 of his last 12 matches, all on clay, with 10 of those wins coming in straight sets.
- His recent victims include No. 134 Pedro Martinez Portero, No. 149 Elmer Moller, and No. 191 Clement Tabur.
- He has dropped only one set in his last five matches at this tournament, winning 12 of 13 sets played.
- His average game margin in his last five wins is +6.2, showing he is covering handicaps comfortably.
Balshaw has won the first set in 14 of his last 15 matches across all tournaments.
- His career first-set win conversion rate is 96%, meaning he almost always wins the match when he takes the opener.
- In this tournament, he has won the first set in all five matches, with scores of 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-1, and 6-3.
- Nedic has lost the first set in three of his last five matches against top-300 opponents.
Nedic lost in straight sets to No. 186 David Jorda Sanchis on 23 May 2026.
- He also lost a close three-setter to No. 200 Genaro Alberto Olivieri on 26 May 2026.
- His wins in the last month have come against players ranked outside the top 200, with the exception of No. 234 Max Alcala Gurri.
- Balshaw, by contrast, has beaten four top-200 opponents in his last 12 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Balshaw

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Balshaw's exceptional first-set record (14 of last 15) and Nedic's occasional slow starts give Balshaw a slight edge, but the odds are fair.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Felix Balshaw

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Balshaw's dominant recent clay form and high-quality wins give him a slight edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Balshaw's superior recent form and higher-quality wins on clay give him a clear edge over Nedic, who has struggled against similar-level opponents.
- Felix Balshaw has won 11 of his last 12 matches, all on clay, with dominant scorelines.
- Balshaw's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., #134 Pedro Martinez Portero, #149 Elmer Moller).
- Andrej Nedic lost to #186 David Jorda Sanchis and #200 Genaro Alberto Olivieri in recent weeks, showing vulnerability against top-200 players.
- Balshaw's first-set win conversion rate is 96%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix BalshawEstimated chance60%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Balshaw has been dominant, Nedic's competitiveness in recent matches suggests a closer contest, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Balshaw's last 5 matches averaged 20.2 total games, but 3 of those were one-sided wins.
- Nedic's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 matches exceeding 21.5 games.
- Both players have solid serve stats, which could lead to tighter sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Balshaw's dominant recent scorelines suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap, though Nedic's competitiveness adds risk.
- Balshaw's average game margin in his last 5 wins is +6.2 games.
- Nedic's average game margin in his last 5 wins is +5.8, but against weaker opponents.
- Balshaw has covered -3.5 in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostFelix Balshaw -3.5Estimated chance50%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Balshaw's exceptional first-set performance and Nedic's occasional slow starts make Balshaw the likely set 1 winner.
- Balshaw has won the first set in 14 of his last 15 matches.
- His first-set win conversion rate is 96% career-wide.
- Nedic lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against top-300 opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix BalshawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Balshaw's tendency to close matches in straight sets, combined with Nedic's occasional straight-set losses, supports under 2.5 sets.
- Balshaw has played only 2 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Nedic has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 10 matches.
- Balshaw's 96% first-set win conversion often leads to straight-set wins.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Balshaw's higher ace rate and potential for a longer match could push total aces over 7.5, though Nedic's low ace count limits upside.
- Balshaw's ace rate is 7.8%, averaging ~5-6 aces per match in Bo3.
- Nedic's ace rate is 2.2%, averaging ~1-2 aces per match.
- Combined, they average around 7 aces per match, but Balshaw's recent form could push this higher.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making over 5.5 a reasonable expectation in a competitive match.
- Balshaw's double fault rate is 4.2%, averaging ~3-4 per match.
- Nedic's double fault rate is 3.3%, averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Combined, they average around 6 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Felix Balshaw

13W 2L

6-3 3-6 6-3#280Martin Krumich

6-1 3-0 ret.#149Elmer Moller

6-2 6-0#853Stefan Horia Haita

6-1 7-6(4)#564Peter Makk

6-3 6-1#703Franco Ribero

7-6(8) 2-6 6-1#395Lucio Ratti

6-1 3-6 6-1#313Eliakim Coulibaly

6-4 7-6(4)#186David Jorda Sanchis

4-6 6-3 7-5#294Daniel Elahi Galan

6-2 6-4#191Clement Tabur

4-6 6-1 6-4#134Pedro Martinez Portero

7-6(1) 7-5#587Luca Staeheli

6-4 6-1#418Corentin Denolly

6-1 6-4#391Raphael Perot

6-3 6-3#668Daniel Antonio Nunez

Andrej Nedic

11W 4L

6-2 6-4#234Max Alcala Gurri

6-7(4) 6-3 7-5#537Sebastian Gima

6-1 6-2#589Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#785Nikita Mashtakov

6-3 6-2#369Andrey Chepelev

7-6(4) 6-3#462Sebastian Sorger

6-1 6-0—Jakub Vrba

6-0 6-2—Vid Mohar

6-4 6-4#667Yaroslav Demin

5-1 ret.—Luis Klaus

6-4 4-6 7-5#200Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-4#186David Jorda Sanchis

6-4 6-2#265Franco Agamenone

6-1 6-4#332Mert Alkaya

6-1 6-2#345Mili Poljicak