Andres Santamarta Roig #871Spain00 – 2Inaki Montes-De La Torre #312Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Montes-De La Torre's superior clay-court record in 2026 and higher career win percentage give him a clear edge, supported by stronger recent form against better opposition.

• Montes-De La Torre has a 23-7 clay record in 2026 vs Santamarta Roig's 3-1, showing stronger surface fit.
• Montes-De La Torre's career win rate is 68.1% vs Santamarta Roig's 54.8%, indicating a higher baseline level.
• Montes-De La Torre's recent form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., No. 180 Cina, No. 231 Houkes) in the last 5 matches.
• Santamarta Roig's last 5 matches include a loss to No. 234 Alcala Gurri, while Montes-De La Torre's only recent loss was to No. 193 Boyer in a tight three-setter.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve effectively, the first set is likely to be tight, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Montes-De La Torre's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Santamarta Roig's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, but against top-300 opponents, the average was 10.3 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 63-66%, indicating solid serving that can extend sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Montes-De La Torre's high first-set win rate over a large career sample and recent first-set dominance against quality opponents make him the likely set 1 winner.

• Montes-De La Torre has a 91% first-set win conversion rate in his career, compared to Santamarta Roig's 97%, but Montes-De La Torre's sample size is much larger (232 matches vs 62).
• In his last 5 matches, Montes-De La Torre won the first set in 4 of them, including against strong opponents like Cina and Houkes.
• Santamarta Roig won the first set in his last 3 matches but faced lower-ranked opponents (No. 370, 363, 252).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both players have low ace rates, especially on clay, making it unlikely that the combined ace count will exceed 5.5.

• Montes-De La Torre averages 2.1 aces per match (ace rate 2.1%), and Santamarta Roig averages 1.2 aces per match (ace rate 1.2%).
• In their last 5 matches, Montes-De La Torre hit a total of 8 aces (1.6 per match), while Santamarta Roig hit 3 aces (0.6 per match).
• Clay courts typically reduce ace counts, and both players rely more on rallying than big serving.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players prone to double faults, especially Montes-De La Torre, the total could exceed 6.5, though it's a close call.

• Montes-De La Torre has a double-fault rate of 5.5%, averaging about 3.5 double faults per match in his career.
• Santamarta Roig has a double-fault rate of 4.0%, averaging about 2.5 double faults per match.
• In their last 5 matches, Montes-De La Torre averaged 3.2 double faults, while Santamarta Roig averaged 2.0.