United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Timofey Skatov #178Kazakhstan0Kyrian Jacquet #136France3

Sets 6-7 · 4-6 · 4-6Thu 25 Jun 2026, 11:46 Predictions gradedQ3Grass

Predictions4–357%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKyrian Jacquet · 42 places

Timofey Skatov

Kazakhstan

Career-high ATP No. 123 came in September 2023. Public sources used here do not clearly label a preferred surface, so the most reliable profile signal is a current top-200 standing with regular qualifying and Challenger-level activity.

Current ranking: #178
Peak ranking: #123 · 2023
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Kyrian Jacquet

France

Jacquet reached a career-high ATP No. 102 in February 2026. Public sources used here do not clearly label a preferred surface, but he arrives still positioned around the top-150 range.

Current ranking: #136
Peak ranking: #102 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 23:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Kyrian Jacquet’s superior serve and grass-court form make him the favorite to win this Wimbledon qualifying final, but Timofey Skatov’s competitiveness suggests a tight match.

Best betting angles include Jacquet 3-1 in sets, over 3.5 total sets, and Skatov +5.5 games, with value also on over 18.5 total aces.

Context

Jacquet career ace rate 4.8% vs Skatov 1.8%.
- Jacquet wins 68.1% of first-serve points vs Skatov's 63.2%.
- Jacquet has a 7-4 grass record in 2025-2026, including a win over Grigor Dimitrov, while Skatov is 3-2 with losses to lower-ranked players.
Jacquet beat Dimitrov 6-3, 7-6(9) on 18 June 2026.
- He has won 4 of his last 5 matches, with tiebreaks in four of those contests.
- Skatov's last 5 matches include a loss to James Watt (ranked 674) and a straight-set loss to Taro Daniel (204).
Skatov beat Barrena 6-3, 7-6(4) and Ymer 6-4, 6-1.
- Jacquet beat Boscardin Dias 6-1, 7-6(3) and Guerrieri 7-6(9), 6-4.
- No reported injuries or retirements for either player in the current tournament.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Kyrian Jacquet

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Jacquet's stronger serve metrics and better recent grass form give him a clear edge in a Bo5 on grass.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Jacquet's stronger serve metrics and better recent grass form give him a clear edge in a Bo5 on grass.
- Jacquet grass record 2025-2026: 7-4, Skatov: 3-2 (career grass wins 7 vs 5).
- Jacquet ace rate 4.8% vs Skatov 1.8%, first-serve win 68.1% vs 63.2%.
- Jacquet last 5 matches: 4-1, including win over Dimitrov; Skatov last 5: 3-2, losses to Watt (674) and Daniel (204).
- Jacquet tiebreak win rate 57% career, Skatov 47%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKyrian JacquetEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' tendency for tight sets and tiebreaks in a Bo5 format supports a higher total games count.
- Bo5 on grass often produces close sets; both players have tiebreak history.
- Skatov's recent matches: 3 of last 5 went to tiebreaks or 7-5 sets.
- Jacquet's last 5: 3 matches with at least one tiebreak, average games per match ~22 in Bo3.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 36.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Skatov's ability to stay competitive in sets makes a +5.5 game handicap likely to cover.
- Skatov's recent losses have been close: 7-6, 6-7, 7-6 vs Watt; 6-4, 6-4 vs Cecchinato.
- Jacquet's wins often by narrow margins: 7-6, 6-4; 7-6, 7-6.
- Skatov's return points won 42% suggests he can keep games close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonTimofey Skatov +5.5Estimated chance65%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Jacquet's high first-set win rate and strong serving give him a slight edge to take the opener.
- Jacquet first-set win conversion 81% career, Skatov 83%.
- Jacquet won first set in 4 of last 5 matches; Skatov won first set in 3 of last 5.
- Jacquet's serve dominance (ace rate 4.8%) likely to pressure Skatov early.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonKyrian JacquetEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to extend beyond three sets given both players' ability to win tight sets.
- Both players have shown resilience in recent matches, with multiple tiebreaks.
- Skatov's last 5: 3 matches went to deciding sets or tiebreaks.
- Jacquet's last 5: 2 matches went to deciding sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
High frequency of tiebreaks in recent matches for both players makes a tiebreak in this match very likely.
- Skatov played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 matches.
- Jacquet played tiebreaks in 4 of last 5 matches.
- Both have career tiebreak rates near 50%, indicating frequent tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jacquet's high ace rate on grass should push the total aces over 18.5 in a long match.
- Jacquet ace rate 4.8% over career, Skatov 1.8%.
- In Bo5, Jacquet could serve 15+ aces alone based on his rate.
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts for both players.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 18.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest over 8.5 is likely in a match expected to go at least 4 sets.
- Jacquet double fault rate 4.5%, Skatov 3.1%.
- Both players have high double fault counts in career (Jacquet 1235, Skatov 1024).
- Pressure of Bo5 qualifying could increase errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Timofey Skatov

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#185Elias Ymer

6-3 7-6(4)#247Alex Barrena

7-6(5) 6-7(2) 7-6(8)#674James Watt

6-3 6-3#204Taro Daniel

6-4 6-2#122Henrique Rocha

6-4 6-4#159Marco Cecchinato

6-7(2) 7-6(7) 7-6(4)#223Chun Hsin Tseng

4-6 6-4 6-2#129Vilius Gaubas

1-6 6-1 6-4#441Radu Albot

6-4 6-3#213Laslo Djere

6-1 6-2#225Darwin Blanch

2-6 6-4 6-3#235Henri Squire

6-4 7-6(5)#512Carlos Lopez Montagud

6-2 6-1#115Titouan Droguet

6-3 7-5#296Sergey Fomin

Kyrian Jacquet

10W 5L

7-6(9) 6-4#229Andrea Guerrieri

6-1 7-6(3)#244Pedro Boscardin Dias

4-6 6-2 6-2#263Henry Searle

6-3 7-6(9)#164Grigor Dimitrov

6-4 2-0 ret.#475Mees Rottgering

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#183Gauthier Onclin

1-6 7-6(10) 6-4#142Toby Samuel

6-4 6-2 6-2#94Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-3#220Felix Gill

2-6 6-3 7-6(8)#375Nerman Fatic

6-3 7-6(4)#228Lorenzo Giustino

2-6 6-4 6-0#228Lorenzo Giustino

6-7(4) 7-6(2) 6-1#132Arthur Gea

7-6(3) 6-2#314Jonas Forejtek

6-2 6-0#473Sergi Perez Contri