Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Petr Nesterov #3962Tommaso Compagnucci #374Italy0

Sets 6-3 · 7-6Thu 25 Jun 2026, 15:22 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTommaso Compagnucci · 22 places

Petr Nesterov

Bulgarian right-hander born on 7 March 2003. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 384 on 28 October 2024 and was listed No. 396 in June 2026. Reliable public sources in this search set did not expose a stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #396
Peak ranking: #384 · 2024
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Tommaso Compagnucci

Italy

Structured reference lists him at No. 374, 173 cm, and right-handed with a two-handed backhand. Reliable public profile detail such as age and career-high ranking did not surface from the exact search set on 24 June 2026.

Current ranking: #374
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 23:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Tommaso Compagnucci's dominant 2026 clay record (39-12) and 9-1 recent form give him a clear edge over Petr Nesterov, despite Nesterov's home advantage in Bulgaria.

Betting value lies on Compagnucci to win (1.85, 7.9-point edge) and over 21.5 total games (1.85, 5.9-point edge), with a speculative play on Compagnucci 2-1 at 4.25 (18.5-point edge).

Context

Compagnucci is 39-12 on clay in 2026, compared to Nesterov's 16-6.
- Compagnucci has won 9 of his last 10 matches overall, with 8 of those wins on clay.
- His break-point conversion rate of 47.1% on clay is slightly better than Nesterov's 45.1%.
Nesterov is Bulgarian and the match is in Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
- Home-country settings often provide a psychological and logistical boost.
- Nesterov has won 7 of his last 10 matches, showing he can capitalize on favorable conditions.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Compagnucci's superior clay-court record this season and dominant H2H win give him a clear edge, though Nesterov's home advantage keeps it from being a high-confidence pick.
- Compagnucci is 39-12 on clay in 2026, Nesterov is 16-6.
- Compagnucci won the only H2H meeting 6-2 6-0 on hard in 2021.
- Compagnucci has won 9 of his last 10 matches, Nesterov 7 of 10.
- Compagnucci's break point conversion rate is 47.1% vs Nesterov's 45.1%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTommaso CompagnucciEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data shows both players involved in longer contests, and their serve/return profiles on clay point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Nesterov's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 games, with 3 going over 21.5.
- Compagnucci's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, with 4 going over 21.5.
- Both players have high hold rates on clay, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
The first set is likely to be tight, with both players holding serve effectively, pushing the total games over 9.5.
- Nesterov's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Compagnucci's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 64% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Similar to the first set, the second set is expected to be closely contested, with few breaks, leading to over 9.5 games.
- Nesterov's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games.
- Compagnucci's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games.
- Both players have similar break point save rates (58% vs 57%).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Compagnucci's strong recent trend of winning first sets, combined with Nesterov's occasional slow starts, suggests Compagnucci is likely to take the opener.
- Compagnucci has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
- Nesterov has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Compagnucci's first-set win conversion rate is 92% career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTommaso CompagnucciEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the matchup and both players' resilience, a three-set match is a plausible outcome.
- Nesterov has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 10 matches.
- Compagnucci has gone to three sets in 4 of his last 10 matches.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates above 60%.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players having similar double fault rates, the total double faults are likely to be around 5, making over 4.5 a reasonable bet.
- Nesterov averages 2.5 double faults per match.
- Compagnucci averages 2.6 double faults per match.
- Combined double fault rate suggests around 5-6 in a typical match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-0Petr Nesterov#396vTommaso Compagnucci#374Sep 16, 2021

1 total meetings

Petr Nesterov

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#339Matteo Martineau

6-2 6-2#413Daniel Dutra Da Silva

6-4 3-6 6-4#635Fausto Tabacco

6-4 6-4#586Federico Arnaboldi

0-6 7-5 6-4#634Federico Iannaccone

7-5 6-3#159Marco Cecchinato

6-4 3-6 6-1#433Gianmarco Ferrari

6-4 6-2—Michele Mecarelli

6-3 6-4#403Samuele Pieri

6-0 6-7(3) 6-3#893Daniel Bagnolini

6-4 6-4#253Buvaysar Gadamauri

6-0 3-6 6-4#382Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-2 6-4#359Federico Bondioli

6-1 6-3#634Federico Iannaccone

7-6(2) 7-6(5)#838Pierluigi Basile

Tommaso Compagnucci

11W 4L

6-3 6-3#567Tomasz Berkieta

7-6(5) 6-7(3) 6-2#290Maxim Mrva

6-3 6-7(7) 6-4#495Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-3 6-2—Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

2-6 6-4 6-2#335Jacopo Vasami

7-6(2) 6-3#175Gonzalo Bueno

4-6 6-0 6-2#501Jelle Sels

6-3 6-4—Jeremy Gschwendtner

3-6 6-4 7-6(12)#253Buvaysar Gadamauri

7-6(5) 6-4#363Enrico Dalla Valle

6-2 6-4#238Guido Ivan Justo

7-5 6-4#421Li Tu

6-4 6-0#893Daniel Bagnolini

6-1 6-0—Alessio Balestrieri

6-1 6-1#439Massimo Giunta