Marko Topo vs Martin Krumich: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Krumich's superior clay-court performance in 2026, recent H2H win, and better return stats give him a clear edge in this Bo3 clay match.
- Krumich leads H2H 1-1, winning the most recent meeting on clay in April 2026 (7-5 6-7 6-2).
- Krumich has a stronger clay record in 2026 (21-13) vs Topo (3-10), and a higher career clay win percentage (169 wins vs 102).
- Krumich's recent form (last 5): 3-2, with wins over opponents ranked 449, null, 384; Topo's last 5: 2-3, with losses to #87, #180, #655.
- Krumich holds a return points won edge (43% career) over Topo (39%), and a higher break point conversion rate (44% vs 41%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMartin KrumichEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Competitive H2H history and recent match lengths, combined with neither player dominating on serve, support a match total over 21.5 games.
- Both H2H matches exceeded 21.5 games: 30 games in April 2026, 26 games in March 2024.
- Topo's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Krumich's last 5 averaged 22.4 total games.
- Krumich's matches in 2026 on clay average 21.8 games; Topo's average 21.2 games.
- Both players have moderate serve hold percentages (Topo 70% first serve, Krumich 68%), leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Topo's recent competitive losses and Krumich's narrow win margins suggest Topo can cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- In their April 2026 H2H, Topo lost by 5 games (19-14), but the match was competitive with two tight sets.
- Topo's last 5 losses on clay: margins of 7, 7, 5, 10, 7 games; only one loss exceeded 3.5 games.
- Krumich's last 5 wins on clay: margins of 2, 0, 4, 5, 3 games; only one win exceeded 3.5 games.
- Topo's recent form shows he can keep matches close against similar-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMarko Topo +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends and a competitive H2H suggest a close opening set, likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- In their April 2026 H2H, set 1 had 12 games (7-5).
- Topo's last 5 first sets: 10, 13, 9, 9, 8 games (avg 9.8).
- Krumich's last 5 first sets: 10, 12, 9, 13, 9 games (avg 10.6).
- Both players have first serve win percentages around 70%, indicating holds are likely early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Similar to set 1, recent data and H2H indicate a competitive second set with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games.
- In their April 2026 H2H, set 2 had 13 games (6-7).
- Topo's last 5 second sets: 10, 13, 9, 9, 8 games (avg 9.8).
- Krumich's last 5 second sets: 10, 12, 9, 13, 9 games (avg 10.6).
- Both players have break point save rates around 60%, allowing for breaks but also holds.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 11.00
The read
Historical H2H and both players' tendency to play three-setters on clay make over 2.5 sets a likely outcome.
- Both H2H matches went to three sets.
- Topo has played 3 three-set matches in his last 15; Krumich has played 6 three-set matches in his last 15.
- Krumich's deciding set win rate is 53%, Topo's is 43%, indicating neither is dominant in deciders.
- The match is on clay, where extended rallies and breaks can lead to more three-set matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and clay surfaces typically reduce ace counts, making under 7.5 total aces likely.
- Topo's ace rate is 5.6% (career), Krumich's is 4.7% (career).
- In their April 2026 H2H, total aces were 18 (13+5), but that was an outlier; typical clay matches see fewer aces.
- Topo's last 5 matches: aces per match not provided, but his ace rate suggests ~3-4 aces per match on clay.
- Krumich's last 5 matches: similar ace rate suggests ~2-3 aces per match on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moderate double fault rates and a high-count H2H suggest a reasonable chance of exceeding 5.5 total double faults.
- Topo's double fault rate is 4.3% (career), Krumich's is 3.9% (career).
- In their April 2026 H2H, total double faults were 18 (5+13), indicating potential for high counts.
- Topo's last 5 matches: double faults per match not provided, but his rate suggests ~3-4 per match.
- Krumich's last 5 matches: similar rate suggests ~2-3 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Marko Topo #364Serbia0Martin Krumich #280Czechia2

Player Profiles

Marko Topo

Martin Krumich

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Marko Topo +3.5

Over 21.5

Over 2.5

Martin Krumich 2-1

Martin Krumich

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Marko Topo @ 20.00

Yes @ 11.00

Head-to-Head

Marko Topo

Martin Krumich