United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Gauthier Onclin #183Belgium1Shintaro Mochizuki #150Japan2

Sets 2-6 · 6-4 · 3-6Wed 24 Jun 2026, 10:06 Predictions gradedQ2Grass

Predictions2–820%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageShintaro Mochizuki · 33 places

Gauthier Onclin

Belgium

Career-high No. 182 came on 25 May 2026. His best Challenger results have come on hard courts, and he added a first ATP Tour main-draw win on grass in Stuttgart in June 2026.

Current ranking: #183
Peak ranking: #182 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Shintaro Mochizuki

Japan

Career-high No. 92 came on 10 November 2025. ATP Tour has described grass as his favourite surface, and his recent grass record includes the 2025 Nottingham Challenger final and Wimbledon second round.

Current ranking: #150
Peak ranking: #92 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jun 2026, 07:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Gauthier Onclin’s superior recent grass form, H2H dominance, and return-game edge make him a strong favorite against an inconsistent Shintaro Mochizuki.

The best betting value is Onclin to win 2-0 at 3.20, with additional edges on the match-winner and under 22.5 total games. Mochizuki’s high double-fault rate and slow starts should lead to a straightforward straight-set victory for Onclin.

Context

Onclin beat Fabian Marozsan (rank 62) 7-6 6-3 in Stuttgart qualifying, his first ATP-level grass win.
- He won his Wimbledon Q1 match 6-3 7-5 against Lorenzo Giustino, losing serve only once.
- In his last five matches, Onclin is 4-1, with the only loss a tight 7-6 7-6 against Kyrian Jacquet.
Mochizuki's career double-fault rate is 6.0%, well above the tour average.
- He wins only 46.8% of second-serve points, making him vulnerable in pressure moments.
- In his last five matches, he has averaged over three double faults per match.
Onclin won 55% of return points in the H2H, well above his career average of 44%.
- He converted 5 of 8 break points (63%), while Mochizuki converted only 1 of 2.
- Mochizuki won only 25% of second-serve points in that match, exposing his serve weakness.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Onclin's superior recent form, H2H dominance, and slightly better grass-court metrics give him a moderate edge in this Wimbledon qualifying match.
- Onclin leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-2 6-4 on indoor hard in 2023 with dominant return stats (55% return points won, 63% break conversion).
- Onclin's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, including a grass win over Marozsan (rank 62) and a straight-set win in Wimbledon Q1.
- Mochizuki's last 5 matches: 2-3, with losses to Bertola (rank 187) and Neumayer (rank 170), and a tight win over Sachko (rank 199).
- Onclin's career grass win rate is 60% (6-4), while Mochizuki's is 50% (21-21), but Onclin's 2026 grass form (4-2) edges Mochizuki's (3-3).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostGauthier OnclinEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Onclin's ability to win efficiently and Mochizuki's vulnerability in lopsided sets point to a match finishing under 22.5 games.
- Onclin's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games, with 3 of 5 finishing under 22.5 games.
- Mochizuki's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, but his losses were often one-sided (e.g., 4-12 games vs Neumayer).
- The H2H match had only 18 games (6-2 6-4).
- Both players have moderate serve stats, but Onclin's return edge (44% career return points won vs Mochizuki's 42%) could lead to quicker breaks.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's strong starts and Mochizuki's occasional early lapses make a sub-9.5-game first set plausible.
- Onclin's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 7-6, 7-6, 7-6, 6-1 (average 9.4 games, 3 of 5 under 9.5).
- Mochizuki's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 7-6, 4-6 (average 9.8 games, 2 of 5 under 9.5).
- Onclin's first-set dominance often leads to quick 6-3 or 6-4 scorelines.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A potential straight-set win for Onclin could keep the second set under 9.5 games, though Mochizuki's fighting spirit adds uncertainty.
- Onclin's last 5 second sets: 7-5, 7-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 (average 9.2 games, 3 of 5 under 9.5).
- Mochizuki's last 5 second sets: 7-6, 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 4-6 (average 9.8 games, 2 of 5 under 9.5).
- If Onclin leads, he may close out the match efficiently in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Onclin's strong first-set record and Mochizuki's recent slow starts suggest Onclin is likely to take the opening set.
- Onclin has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against top-100 opponents Marozsan and Mpetshi Perricard.
- Mochizuki lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked opponents like Jong (rank 736) and Bertola (rank 187).
- Onclin's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong front-running ability.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGauthier OnclinEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's straight-set tendency and Mochizuki's difficulty extending matches against in-form opponents suggest a 2-0 outcome.
- Onclin's last 5 wins: 4 were in straight sets.
- Mochizuki's last 5 losses: 4 were in straight sets.
- The H2H match was a straight-set win for Onclin.
- Onclin's first-set win conversion rate is 90%, and he often closes matches in two sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Onclin's momentum from likely winning the first set and Mochizuki's tendency to fade in second sets give Onclin a slight edge in set 2.
- Onclin has won the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including a tiebreak win against Huesler.
- Mochizuki has lost the second set in 3 of his last 5 matches, often after losing the first set.
- In their only H2H meeting, Onclin won the second set 6-4 after taking the first 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGauthier OnclinEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.20
The read
Onclin's form and H2H dominance make a 2-0 victory the most likely set-betting outcome.
- Onclin has won 4 of his last 5 matches in straight sets.
- Mochizuki has lost 4 of his last 5 matches in straight sets.
- The H2H was a straight-set win for Onclin.
- Onclin's superior return game and break-point conversion (46% vs Mochizuki's 44%) support a comfortable win.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostGauthier Onclin 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Neither player is a big server, and their combined ace output rarely exceeds 8 in a best-of-three match.
- Onclin's ace rate is 2.2% (career), averaging ~2-3 aces per match in recent grass matches.
- Mochizuki's ace rate is 3.3%, but his recent matches show low ace counts (e.g., 2 aces vs Sachko, 1 vs Bertola).
- In their H2H, Onclin hit 1 ace and Mochizuki hit 2 aces (total 3).
- Both players rely more on rallying than big serving, especially on grass where return stats are elevated.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Market price1.83Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mochizuki's high double-fault rate and the pressure of qualifying could lead to a combined total exceeding 5.5 double faults.
- Onclin's double-fault rate is 3.9% (career), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Mochizuki's double-fault rate is 6.0% (career), averaging ~3-4 per match, with recent matches showing 3+ double faults.
- In their H2H, Onclin had 1 double fault and Mochizuki had 2 (total 3), but Mochizuki's higher rate on grass could push the total over.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-4Gauthier Onclin#183vShintaro Mochizuki#150Mar 20, 2023

1 total meetings

Gauthier Onclin

11W 4L

6-3 7-5#228Lorenzo Giustino

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#136Kyrian Jacquet

7-6(1) 6-2#84Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-6(6) 6-3#62Fabian Marozsan

7-6(1) 6-4#311Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-1 6-3#897Orlando Luz

5-7 6-1 6-4#368Marvin Moeller

6-1 3-6 6-4#249Pavel Kotov

6-3 6-4#194Michael Mmoh

2-6 6-3 6-1#313Eliakim Coulibaly

6-3 7-6(3)#332Mert Alkaya

6-7(6) 7-6(2) 6-0#439Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-2#696Oscar Weightman

7-6(5) 7-6(2)#305Hamish Stewart

6-4 6-0#282Calvin Hemery

Shintaro Mochizuki

5W 10L

6-3 7-6(4)#199Vitaliy Sachko

6-3 6-4#187Remy Bertola

7-6(3) 7-5#144Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(5)#143Michael Zheng

4-6 6-3 6-4#736Sander Jong

7-6(3) 6-4#89Sho Shimabukuro

2-6 6-3 6-0#187Remy Bertola

6-2 6-2#170Lukas Neumayer

6-3 6-1#152Jacob Fearnley

6-7(3) 6-4 6-1#198Juan Pablo Ficovich

3-6 6-3 6-4#246Keegan Smith

6-4 3-6 6-1#245Jay Clarke

6-4 7-5#38Mariano Navone

6-2 6-2#168Nicolas Mejia

6-4 5-7 6-3#93Benjamin Bonzi

Gauthier Onclin

Shintaro Mochizuki

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Gauthier Onclin

Gauthier Onclin

Under 8.5

Under 22.5

Gauthier Onclin 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Gauthier Onclin

Shintaro Mochizuki