United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Borna Gojo #1810Colton Smith #188United States2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Wed 24 Jun 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedQ2Grass

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBorna Gojo · 7 places

Borna Gojo

Career-high No. 72 came on 2023-11-20. Public records link his ranking drop mainly to a 2024 back-injury layoff before he rebuilt through Challenger-level events.

Current ranking: #181
Peak ranking: #72 · 2023
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Colton Smith

United States

Career-high No. 133 came on 2025-08-25. Public profile coverage is still limited, but ATP/Wikipedia records show a University of Arizona background and a rise built mostly through Challenger-level events.

Current ranking: #188
Peak ranking: #133 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jun 2026, 06:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Gojo's superior grass-court record and fresher Q1 win give him a slight edge, but Smith's recent H2H victory and three-set resilience point to a tight match.

Best betting angles: over 24.5 total games, tiebreak in match, and Smith +1.5 games on the handicap.

Context

Smith beat Andrade 6-3, 4-6, 6-3 on 22 June, playing three sets and 28 games.
- Gojo won his Q1 match 7-6, 6-2 in straight sets, playing only 21 games.
- Both matches were on the same day, giving Smith less recovery time before this Q2 match.
Smith won 6-4, 7-5 on indoor hard in their last meeting, the only H2H match in 2026.
- Gojo won their only other meeting in 2024, but that was over 18 months ago.
- Smith's win came in a final, showing he can beat Gojo under pressure.
Gojo's career ace rate is 11.1%, compared to Smith's 6.7%.
- Gojo wins 74.2% of first-serve points, while Smith wins 68.8%.
- On grass, Gojo is 11-4 career, while Smith is 11-6, but Gojo's serve is more dominant.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Gojo's superior grass-court pedigree and fresher Q1 performance give him a slight edge, though Smith's recent H2H win keeps it close.
- Gojo has a 11-4 career grass record vs Smith's 11-6, with a 1-0 grass record in 2026.
- Gojo's recent form: 4-1 in last 5 matches, all on grass/I.hard, including a straight-set Q1 win.
- Smith's recent form: 3-2 in last 5, but his Q1 win went 3 sets vs a lower-ranked opponent.
- H2H is 1-1, but Smith won the most recent meeting on I.hard in February 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance55%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With strong serving and competitive recent form, a close match likely exceeds 22.5 games, especially on grass where breaks are harder.
- Both players have high hold rates: Gojo 74.2% on first serve, Smith 68.8%.
- H2H matches averaged 22 games, but both were on I.hard; grass often produces tighter sets.
- Gojo's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, Smith's 21.4, but Smith's Q1 went 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's ability to push matches to three sets and Gojo's lack of blowout wins make Smith +3.5 games a solid cover.
- Smith's recent losses have been by 5, 5, and 7 games, but wins are often close.
- Gojo's wins are typically by 4-5 games, but Smith's competitiveness keeps margins tight.
- H2H matches were decided by 4 and 8 games, but Smith's current form suggests a closer contest.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonColton Smith +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
High first-serve effectiveness and recent tight opening sets point to a set 1 with at least 10 games.
- Gojo's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-3, 4-6 (avg 10.2 games).
- Smith's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 2-6, 7-5, 5-7, 6-2 (avg 9.8 games).
- Both players have first-serve win rates above 68%, reducing early break likelihood.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Solid serving and break-point resilience suggest set 2 will also be competitive, likely surpassing 9.5 games.
- Gojo's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 3-6 (avg 9.2 games).
- Smith's last 5 second sets: 4-6, 7-6, 2-6, 3-6, 6-4 (avg 9.6 games).
- Both players have break-point save rates above 63%, extending sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Smith's recent trend of three-set battles and the high stakes of qualifying make a deciding set more likely than not.
- Smith's last 3 matches all went to 3 sets.
- Gojo's last 5 matches: 2 three-setters, 3 straight-set wins.
- H2H matches were both straight-set, but on different surfaces.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's strong recent first-set record and Smith's occasional slow starts suggest a narrow edge for Gojo in set 1.
- Gojo won his last 5 first sets, including a tiebreak vs Wong in Q1.
- Smith lost the first set in 2 of his last 5 matches.
- Gojo's first-set win conversion rate is 83% career, Smith's is 91%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostBorna GojoEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Gojo's high ace rate and the grass surface should push the combined ace total comfortably over 12.5.
- Gojo averages 11.1% ace rate, Smith 6.7%.
- In their H2H, they combined for 20 aces in 2 matches (avg 10 per match).
- Grass courts amplify ace counts; Gojo had 8 aces in his Q1 win.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Market price1.85Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Strong serving and recent tiebreak frequency suggest at least one set will go to a tiebreak.
- Gojo has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 5 matches, winning all.
- Smith played a tiebreak in his last 5 matches (lost).
- Both players have first-serve win rates near 70%, leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gojo's higher double-fault tendency and the match's importance may push the total double faults over 5.5.
- Gojo's double-fault rate is 4.5%, Smith's is 3.2%.
- In H2H, they combined for 8 double faults in 2 matches (avg 4 per match).
- Pressure of qualifying could increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-4 7-5Borna Gojo#181vColton Smith#188Feb 8, 2026

W6-1 7-5Borna Gojo#181vColton Smith#188Oct 27, 2024

2 total meetings

Borna Gojo

12W 3L

7-6(10) 6-2#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-5 6-3#139Jurij Rodionov

6-3 3-6 7-6(9)#122Henrique Rocha

6-3 6-4#278Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 6-3#94Marco Trungelliti

7-6(5) 6-2#198Juan Pablo Ficovich

6-4 7-6(5)#168Nicolas Mejia

7-6(3) 6-4#341Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-3 6-7(6) 7-5#458Quinn Vandecasteele

7-6(5) 6-4#350Mitchell Krueger

6-4 3-6 6-3#249Pavel Kotov

6-4 7-6(6)#187Remy Bertola

7-5 6-7(4) 6-4#388Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-3 6-3#478Laurent Lokoli

6-1 6-4#184Alexis Galarneau

Colton Smith

10W 5L

6-3 4-6 6-3#251Andres Andrade

6-2 7-6(7)#139Jurij Rodionov

7-5 2-6 6-3#205Clement Chidekh

7-5 6-3#431Masamichi Imamura

6-2 6-4#194Michael Mmoh

6-3 7-5#258Andre Ilagan

6-4 7-6(4)#333Tyler Zink

6-3 6-2#355Daniel Milavsky

6-2 7-5#470Trevor Svajda

6-1 3-6 6-3#97Jaime Faria

7-5 6-1#267Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-4#213Laslo Djere

6-4 6-1#145Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3#139Jurij Rodionov

6-2 6-3#715Kei Nishikori

Borna Gojo #1810Colton Smith #188United States2

Player Profiles

Borna Gojo

Colton Smith

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 24.5

Over 12.5

Colton Smith +1.5

Over 9.5

Yes

Borna Gojo 2-1

Borna Gojo

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Borna Gojo

Colton Smith