Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Mayot's superior serve power (higher ace rate) and slightly better break-point saving give him an edge on grass, supported by his more convincing recent form and Wimbledon qualifying win.
- Mayot has a 10-6 career grass record (62.5% win rate) vs Moro Canas' 5-3 (62.5%), but Mayot's grass wins are more recent and against stronger opposition.
- Mayot's serve stats: 6.8% ace rate, 61.3% first serve, 69.8% first-serve win rate, 50.3% second-serve win rate; Moro Canas: 3.6% ace rate, 66.1% first serve, 65.8% first-serve win rate, 50.6% second-serve win rate.
- Mayot's recent form: 3-2 in last 5 matches, including a dominant 6-2 6-2 win in Wimbledon Q1; Moro Canas: 2-3 in last 5, with a tight 3-set win in Q1.
- Mayot's break-point save rate (61.7%) is slightly better than Moro Canas' (59.1%), crucial on grass where holds are key.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' tendency for close sets and the potential for at least one tiebreak, the match is likely to exceed 21.5 games, especially if it goes to three sets.
- Moro Canas' last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Mayot's last 5 averaged 20.4, but with two three-setters.
- Both players have similar return points won percentages (Moro Canas 41%, Mayot 39%), suggesting breaks are possible.
- Grass matches often feature tiebreaks; Moro Canas has a 47% tiebreak win rate, Mayot 43%, indicating close sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of holding serve and the potential for a tight opening set, over 9.5 games in the first set is a reasonable expectation.
- Moro Canas' last 5 first sets: 6-4, 1-6, 6-7, 6-7, 6-7; average 9.8 games.
- Mayot's last 5 first sets: 6-2, 4-6, 1-6, 7-5, 6-3; average 8.6 games, but with two lopsided sets.
- Both players have similar serve/return profiles, suggesting a competitive first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive, with both players having the ability to push it past 9.5 games, especially if the first set is close.
- Moro Canas' last 5 second sets: 7-6, 7-6, 6-1, 6-3, 6-3; average 9.4 games.
- Mayot's last 5 second sets: 6-2, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 4-6; average 9.2 games.
- Both players have shown they can extend sets, with tiebreaks occurring in recent matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.53
The read
Mayot's high first-set win conversion and recent quick start in Wimbledon qualifying suggest he is likely to take the opening set against an opponent who has struggled early in recent matches.
- Mayot won his last match 6-2 6-2, showing strong early-set dominance; Moro Canas dropped the first set in his Q1 match.
- Mayot's first-set win conversion rate is 89% career, indicating he often starts strong.
- Moro Canas' first-set win conversion is 81%, but his recent first-set performances have been inconsistent (lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's high ace rate combined with the grass surface makes it likely that the total aces will exceed 8.5, even with Moro Canas' lower ace output.
- Mayot averages 6.8 aces per 100 serves; Moro Canas averages 3.6 per 100 serves.
- In a best-of-3 match, Mayot alone could hit 5-7 aces based on his ace rate and typical serve volume.
- Grass courts amplify serve effectiveness, increasing ace potential for both players.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the grass surface, it is more likely than not that at least one set will go to a tiebreak.
- Moro Canas has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches; Mayot has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 43-47%, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.
- Grass courts tend to produce more tiebreaks due to the difficulty of breaking serve.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players having moderate double-fault rates, the total is likely to be around 5-6, making over 5.5 a borderline but plausible outcome.
- Mayot's double-fault rate is 3.7 per 100 serves; Moro Canas' is 3.1 per 100 serves.
- In a typical best-of-3 match, each player might serve 60-80 points, leading to 2-3 double faults each.
- Grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Alejandro Moro Canas #233Spain2Harold Mayot #201France0

Player Profiles

Alejandro Moro Canas

Harold Mayot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Harold Mayot 2-0

Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Alejandro Moro Canas

Harold Mayot