ATP EastbourneFinished

Predictions graded

Jenson Brooksby #73United States2Aleksandar Vukic #98Australia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-1Tue 23 Jun 2026, 10:12 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions2–625%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJenson Brooksby · 25 places

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Reached a career-high No. 33 in June 2022. After returning via protected ranking in early 2025, he won Houston and later finished runner-up in Eastbourne on grass.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #33 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 48 in August 2023. Recent tour-level grass results include the 2024 Libema quarter-final and the 2024 Eastbourne semi-final.

Current ranking: #98
Peak ranking: #48 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jun 2026, 23:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Brooksby's Eastbourne final run in 2025 gives him a slight edge, but his poor recent form (4-11 last 15) makes him vulnerable against Vukic, who is 4-1 on grass in 2026.

The match is expected to be close, with value on over 22.5 total games and Vukic +3.5 games, while Brooksby 2-1 at 4.00 offers a high-upside bet given both players' three-set tendencies.

Context

Brooksby is 4-11 in his last 15 matches, with losses to players ranked outside the top 100 like Molcan (101) and Nava (85).
- His only wins in that span came against Khachanov (18), Bergs (48), Popyrin (90), and Damm (108), showing he can still beat mid-level opponents.
- On grass in 2026 he is 1-2, with a straight-set loss to Cerundolo (27) and a three-set win over Damm (108).
- His 2025 Eastbourne final run (7-5 on grass that year) is a distant memory given his current form.
Vukic won two qualifying matches on 20-21 June, beating Wendelken (224) and Stewart (301) in straight and three sets respectively.
- He is now 4-1 on grass in 2026, with all wins against players ranked outside the top 75.
- The quick turnaround from qualifying to a Monday main-draw match could affect his physical freshness.
- Brooksby has not played since 17 June, giving him a slight rest advantage.
Vukic won their 2025 grass match 7-5, 6-3, using his serve effectively with a 73% first-serve win rate in that match.
- Brooksby leads the overall H2H 2-1, but both his wins came on hard courts, including a five-setter at the 2025 US Open.
- Vukic's career grass win rate (56%) is slightly higher than Brooksby's (55.6%), and he has a 10.7% career ace rate that plays up on grass.
- Brooksby's elite return game (40% career return points won) could neutralize Vukic's serve, but he struggled in their grass meeting.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Brooksby's superior H2H record and strong 2025 Eastbourne final run give him a slight edge on grass, despite recent form struggles.
- Brooksby leads H2H 2-1, including a 5-set win at 2025 US Open and a straight-set win in 2019; Vukic's lone win came on grass in 2025.
- Brooksby's career grass win rate is 15-12 (55.6%), while Vukic is 28-22 (56.0%) on grass, but Brooksby's 2025 grass season was 7-5 with a final run at Eastbourne.
- Brooksby's recent form: 4-11 in last 15, but 2-2 on grass in 2026 with a win over Martin Damm and a loss to Cerundolo; Vukic is 6-9 in last 15, 4-1 on grass in 2026 including qualifying wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJenson BrooksbyEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Given the expected competitiveness, Vukic is likely to keep the match within 3.5 games, even if he loses.
- Brooksby's recent losses have been by margins of 8, 4, 6, 5, 6 games; his wins by 2, 3, 5 games.
- Vukic's recent losses: 6, 9, 6, 6, 6 games; his wins: 1, 5, 1, 7, 7 games.
- H2H: margins of 5, 2, and 12 games; the grass meeting was a 2-game margin for Vukic.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAleksandar Vukic +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Recent match data and H2H history suggest a competitive match with a high likelihood of exceeding 22.5 total games.
- Brooksby's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 22.5; his 2025 Eastbourne matches averaged 24.5 games.
- Vukic's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 games, with 4 of 5 going over 22.5; his 2026 grass matches averaged 23.3 games.
- H2H: 2 of 3 matches exceeded 22.5 games, including a 39-game marathon at 2025 US Open.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have been involved in extended first sets recently, indicating a strong chance of over 9.5 games in set 1.
- Brooksby's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 6-4, 6-7, 4-6, 3-6; average 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Vukic's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-5, 6-7, 6-3, 2-6; average 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 over 9.5.
- H2H first sets: 6-3, 7-5, 6-3; average 9.3 games, but recent form suggests tighter opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Vukic's recent second sets have been shorter, Brooksby's tendency for tight sets and the overall match competitiveness support over 9.5.
- Brooksby's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 5-7; average 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
- Vukic's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-2, 4-6; average 8.8 games, with 2 of 5 over 9.5.
- H2H second sets: 7-6, 6-3, 6-1; average 9.3 games, but recent competitive matches suggest potential for longer second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Vukic's high ace rate and the grass surface favor a high total ace count, with H2H data supporting over 12.5.
- Vukic's ace rate is 10.7% (career), with 28 aces in 3 H2H matches; his 2026 grass matches have seen high ace counts.
- Brooksby's ace rate is 3.2%, but he has 16 aces in H2H; combined H2H average is 14.7 aces per match.
- Grass surface typically increases ace counts; Vukic's serve is a major weapon, and Brooksby's return stats (40% career return points won) may allow more aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in frequent tiebreaks recently and in H2H, making a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Brooksby's tiebreak win rate is 60% career; his last 5 matches included 2 tiebreaks.
- Vukic's tiebreak win rate is 53% career; his last 5 matches included 3 tiebreaks.
- H2H: 2 of 3 matches featured tiebreaks, including the 2025 US Open and 2025 grass meeting.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates and H2H history suggest a moderate chance of exceeding 5.5 double faults, though not a strong trend.
- Brooksby's double fault rate is 2.2%, Vukic's is 3.0%; combined H2H double faults: 20 in 3 matches (6.7 per match).
- Recent form: Brooksby averaged 2.4 double faults per match in last 5; Vukic averaged 3.2.
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves; both players have moderate double fault rates.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

2-1 (3 meetings)

W6-3 6-7(4) 6-4 3-6 6-4Jenson Brooksby#73vAleksandar Vukic#98Aug 25, 2025

L7-5 6-3Jenson Brooksby#73vAleksandar Vukic#98Jun 22, 2025

W6-3 6-1Jenson Brooksby#73vAleksandar Vukic#98Mar 17, 2019

3 total meetings

Jenson Brooksby

4W 11L

6-0 6-4#27Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 3-6 6-3#108Martin Damm

7-6(4) 5-7 6-1#189Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 6-4 6-4#39Mariano Navone

6-3 7-5#14Casper Ruud

6-2 7-5#101Alex Molcan

6-3 7-6(8)#57Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-5#85Emilio Nava

6-4 6-2#128Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-5 6-2#48Zizou Bergs

6-4 6-2#26Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-4#90Alexei Popyrin

6-2 6-1#7Daniil Medvedev

7-6(6) 6-4#18Karen Khachanov

6-3 6-4#48Zizou Bergs

Aleksandar Vukic

6W 9L

7-6(5) 4-6 6-4#301Hamish Stewart

7-5 6-3#224Harry Wendelken

7-6(7) 6-1#224Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-2#78James Duckworth

2-6 6-4 6-3#147Jack Pinnington Jones

6-3 6-3 7-6(4)#51Raphael Collignon

6-0 6-3#87Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-1 6-7(3) 6-3#104Rinky Hijikata

6-4 6-2#28Tommy Paul

6-3 5-7 6-0#114Patrick Kypson

6-4 1-6 6-1#86Marcos Giron

6-4 6-2#120Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 6-7(7) 6-4#160Otto Virtanen

6-2 6-4#136Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 3-6 6-1#523Taha Baadi

Jenson Brooksby #73United States2Aleksandar Vukic #98Australia0

Player Profiles

Jenson Brooksby

Aleksandar Vukic

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aleksandar Vukic +3.5

Over 22.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Jenson Brooksby 2-1

Jenson Brooksby

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Jenson Brooksby

Aleksandar Vukic