Fiona Crawley #232United States22 – 1Himeno Sakatsume #125Japan1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

With both players having moderate serve hold rates and Crawley's tendency for longer matches, a competitive Bo3 on grass is likely to exceed 20.5 games.

• Sakatsume's last 3 grass matches averaged 19.3 games, but all were straight-set; a closer match could push total higher.
• Crawley's recent matches on hard/clay averaged 21.3 games over last 5, with 3 going to 3 sets.
• Both players have break point save rates around 55%, indicating potential for multiple breaks and longer sets.
• No H2H, but both have similar return points won (~48%), suggesting competitive rallies.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Crawley's competitive return game and Sakatsume's moderate margin of victory in recent grass matches suggest Crawley can stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.

• Crawley's recent losses on hard/clay were by an average of 5.6 games, but on grass the margins may be tighter.
• Sakatsume's grass wins were by 6 and 5 games, but against lower-ranked opponents; Crawley is ranked 232, closer to Sakatsume's recent opponents.
• Crawley's return points won (49%) is slightly better than Sakatsume's (47%), which could keep games close.
• In Sakatsume's last 5 wins, only 2 covered a -3.5 game handicap.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Sakatsume's grass first sets have consistently gone over 9.5 games, and Crawley's competitive first sets on other surfaces support a similar outcome.

• Sakatsume's last 3 grass first sets: 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(2) — all over 9.5 games.
• Crawley's recent first sets on hard/clay: 5-7, 6-3, 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 — 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 60%, suggesting holds are common but not dominant.
• No H2H, but similar return stats indicate potential for extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates historically, making it unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces in a Bo3 match.

• Crawley's ace rate is 1.3% (108 aces in 142 matches), averaging ~0.76 aces per match.
• Sakatsume's ace rate is 1.9% (501 aces in 427 matches), averaging ~1.17 aces per match.
• Combined, they average under 2 aces per match; even on grass, aces are unlikely to spike dramatically.
• Neither player is known for a big serve; both rely on placement and rally tolerance.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While their combined average is below 7.5, the grass surface and potential for longer rallies could push double faults over, though confidence is low.

• Crawley's double fault rate is 4.8% (415 DFs in 142 matches), averaging ~2.92 per match.
• Sakatsume's double fault rate is 3.4% (883 DFs in 427 matches), averaging ~2.07 per match.
• Combined average is ~5 per match, but on grass, with more net play and pressure, double faults could increase.
• In Sakatsume's last 3 grass matches, she averaged 2.3 double faults; Crawley's hard/clay average is higher.