Darja Semenistaja #10222 – 1Anna Siskova #231Czechia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Semenistaja's superior grass-court experience and recent high-level match play give her a clear edge over Siskova, who lacks grass-court pedigree.

• Semenistaja has a 4-2 career grass record vs Siskova's 1-4, including Wimbledon Q3 appearances in 2023 and 2025.
• Semenistaja's recent form (last 5 matches: 3-2) includes a WTA 125 final, while Siskova's last 5 are 3-2 but against lower-ranked opponents.
• Semenistaja holds a 53% break-point save rate and 48% break-point conversion rate, slightly edging Siskova's 50.5% and 50.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Both players' recent matches have been high-scoring, and their serve-hold percentages suggest a competitive, drawn-out contest.

• Semenistaja's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 20.5 games.
• Siskova's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 20.5 games.
• Both players have moderate serve hold rates (Semenistaja 60% first-serve win, Siskova 58%), leading to extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent set 1 scores frequently exceeding 9.5 games.

• Semenistaja's last 5 set 1 results: 7-5, 6-3, 6-2, 6-1, 7-6(4) — all over 9.5 games except one 6-2.
• Siskova's last 5 set 1 results: 7-5, 6-7(0), 7-6(1), 6-0, 6-3 — 4 of 5 over 9.5 games.
• Both players have first-serve percentages around 65%, leading to longer games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Semenistaja's tendency to start fast, combined with Siskova's recent first-set struggles, makes her the likely set 1 winner.

• Semenistaja has won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches, including against higher-ranked opponents.
• Siskova has lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, often struggling early against stronger servers.
• Semenistaja's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is a big server, and their low ace rates make under 5.5 total aces highly probable.

• Semenistaja's ace rate is 2% (career), averaging ~2 aces per match in recent data.
• Siskova's ace rate is 1.5% (career), averaging ~1.5 aces per match.
• Grass can increase ace counts, but both players rely more on rallying than big serving.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Siskova's tendency to double-fault, combined with Semenistaja's moderate rate, pushes the total over 7.5.

• Semenistaja's double-fault rate is 2.2% (career), averaging ~3 double faults per match.
• Siskova's double-fault rate is 4.5% (career), averaging ~6 double faults per match.
• Siskova's high double-fault rate is a significant liability, especially under pressure.