Yanaki Milev #74111 – 2Ognjen Milic #359Serbia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Milic's superior overall win rate, H2H edge, and stronger recent results against better competition give him a clear advantage, despite Milev's home familiarity.

• Milic leads H2H 1-0 on clay (2025, 7-6 6-4).
• Milic has a 69.9% career win rate vs Milev's 54.2%.
• Milic's recent form: 7-3 in last 10, including wins over higher-ranked opponents.
• Milev is 9-14 on clay in 2026; Milic is 0-3 but all losses to top-310 players.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Milev rarely loses by more than 3.5 games, and the H2H was close, so he should cover the handicap even in defeat.

• Milev's last 5 losses were by margins of 7, 6, 5, 8, 7 games.
• Milic's last 5 wins were by margins of 8, 4, 4, 5, 5 games.
• H2H margin was 2 games (7-6, 6-4).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H and recent match lengths, combined with moderate break-point saving, point to a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Their only H2H match had 23 games (7-6, 6-4).
• Milev's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 games; Milic's averaged 20.4.
• Both players have break-point save rates around 58-60%, extending games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Milic's elite first-set conversion rate and Milev's recent slow starts suggest Milic is likely to take the opener.

• Milic won the first set in their only H2H meeting.
• Milic's first-set win conversion is 94% career vs Milev's 85%.
• Milev has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Milic's higher ace rate and the clay surface slightly suppressing aces make over 5.5 a lean rather than a strong call.

• Milic's ace rate is 6.9% vs Milev's 3.3%.
• H2H had 5 total aces (Milic 3, Milev 2).
• Milic averages ~4 aces per match in recent data.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Milev's higher double-fault tendency and the H2H count suggest a slight edge to over 6.5, but variance is high.

• Milev's double-fault rate is 5.8% vs Milic's 4.2%.
• H2H had 7 double faults (Milev 5, Milic 2).
• Milev averages ~3-4 DFs per match; Milic ~2-3.