Vilius Gaubas #129Lithuania22 – 1Michael Mmoh #195United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.50

The read

Gaubas' superior recent quality-of-opposition wins and higher deciding-set resilience give him a moderate edge over Mmoh, whose recent losses to lower-ranked players indicate a form dip.

• Gaubas has a 63% deciding-set win rate in his career vs Mmoh's 57%.
• Gaubas' recent form includes wins over top-60 players (Baez, Auger Aliassime) while Mmoh's best recent win is over #192 Tomic.
• Gaubas' first-set win conversion rate is 84% vs Mmoh's 85%, but Gaubas has faced stronger opposition recently.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of Gaubas' recent high-game matches and Mmoh's tendency to push sets deep in losses points to a match exceeding 21.5 total games.

• Gaubas' last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 exceeding 21.5.
• Mmoh's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 total games, but 3 of his last 4 losses went over 21.5.
• Both players have break-point save rates around 60%, suggesting extended service games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67

The read

Recent first-set trends for both players show a pattern of tight opening sets, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Gaubas' last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Mmoh's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65-70%, limiting early breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their resilience in deciders suggests a three-set match is more likely than not.

• Gaubas has played 3 sets in 4 of his last 8 matches.
• Mmoh has played 3 sets in 3 of his last 8 matches.
• Both players have deciding-set win rates above 55%, indicating competitive matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Mmoh's higher ace rate on grass, combined with Gaubas' moderate ace output, makes over 8.5 total aces likely.

• Mmoh averages 6.8% ace rate, which over ~22 games projects to ~7-8 aces alone.
• Gaubas averages 3.3% ace rate, adding ~3-4 aces in a typical match.
• Combined ace rates suggest a total around 10-12 aces in a competitive match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Mmoh's elevated double-fault rate, especially under pressure, should push the total double faults over 5.5.

• Mmoh has a high double-fault rate of 5.2%, averaging ~3-4 double faults per match.
• Gaubas' double-fault rate is 2.6%, adding ~2-3 double faults.
• Combined, they project to ~6-7 double faults in a typical match.