United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Roman Safiullin #131Russia2James McCabe #205Australia0

Sets 6-3 · 7-6Mon 22 Jun 2026, 10:04 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions3–443%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRoman Safiullin · 74 places

Roman Safiullin

Russia

Career-high No. 36 came on 8 January 2024, and his best Wimbledon run is the 2023 quarter-final. ATP lists hard as his favourite surface, and its 23 May 2026 bio update notes a 16-1 April-May run with titles at Oeiras-3 and Mauthausen plus Roland Garros qualifying.

Current ranking: #131
Peak ranking: #36 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

James McCabe

Australia

Career-high No. 164 came on 14 July 2025. His recent grass record includes a Nottingham ITF title in July 2024, three Wimbledon qualifying wins in June 2025 to reach the main draw, and a qualifying run into the 2026 Libema Open main draw.

Current ranking: #205
Peak ranking: #164 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jun 2026, 23:52 · Europe/Bucharest

Safiullin’s hot form and superior return stats make him a moderate favorite, but McCabe’s grass-court readiness and big serve keep it close.

Best bets: McCabe +3.5 games, over 22.5 total games, and yes on a tiebreak. Avoid Safiullin 2-1 set betting due to his shaky deciding-set record on grass.

Context

ATP bio confirms a 16-1 run across April-May 2026, including Challenger titles at Oeiras-3 and Mauthausen.
- He then played three matches in the Libema Open (June 15-18), losing a tight three-setter to Zhang.
- This is his fourth tournament in six weeks, with no extended rest period.
At the 2026 Libema Open, McCabe beat No. 8 seed Zizou Bergs in three sets and lost to champion Majchrzak.
- He has played 13 grass-court matches in 2026, winning 9.
- Safiullin has played only 6 grass matches in 2026, going 3-3.
2023 Wimbledon qualifying: Safiullin d. McCabe 7-5, 4-6, 7-6(5).
- McCabe hit 22 aces to Safiullin's 9, showing his serve can dominate on grass.
- Both players saved break points well, with only one break each in the entire match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Safiullin's superior return stats and H2H grass win give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.
- Safiullin leads H2H 1-0 on grass (2023, 7-5 4-6 7-6(5)).
- Safiullin's recent form: 10-5 in last 15, including wins over top-100 opponents.
- McCabe's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, with losses to lower-ranked players.
- Safiullin's career grass win rate: 17-12 (58.6%), McCabe: 24-17 (58.5%) – similar, but Safiullin's edge in return points won (40% vs 37%) and break point conversion (42% vs 40%) gives him a slight advantage.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players' recent matches and H2H history indicate a competitive, potentially long match, pushing total games over 22.5.
- Safiullin's last 15 matches average 22.9 total games per match.
- McCabe's last 15 matches average 22.1 total games per match.
- Their only H2H had 35 games (7-5, 4-6, 7-6).
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Safiullin 52% career, McCabe 52% career.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
McCabe's competitiveness and Safiullin's narrow margins suggest McCabe will cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Safiullin's average games won margin in last 15 wins: +4.2.
- McCabe's average games lost margin in last 15 losses: -4.1.
- In their H2H, Safiullin won by only 2 games (19-17).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJames McCabe +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Safiullin's strong first-set record and H2H precedent suggest a slight edge in the opening set.
- Safiullin's first-set win conversion rate is 87% (career), McCabe's is also 87%.
- In their only H2H, Safiullin won the first set 7-5.
- Safiullin's recent first-set performance: won first set in 8 of last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Both players frequently engage in three-set battles, making Over 2.5 sets likely.
- Safiullin's last 15 matches: 8 went to three sets.
- McCabe's last 15 matches: 7 went to three sets.
- Their only H2H went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Both players frequently play tiebreaks, and their H2H and recent form strongly suggest at least one tiebreak in this match.
- Safiullin's tiebreak win rate: 52% career, McCabe's: 52%.
- In their H2H, there was one tiebreak.
- Safiullin has played a tiebreak in 8 of his last 15 matches.
- McCabe has played a tiebreak in 7 of his last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates are low enough to keep the total under 7.5 in a Bo3 match.
- Safiullin's double fault rate: 4.4% (career), McCabe's: 3.3%.
- In their H2H, total double faults were 8 (Safiullin 3, McCabe 5).
- Both players have moderate double fault rates, unlikely to spike.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
McCabe's high ace rate and the grass surface should push total aces over 12.5.
- Safiullin's ace rate: 7.3% (career), McCabe's: 10.5%.
- In their H2H, total aces were 31 (Safiullin 9, McCabe 22).
- Grass surface typically increases ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-5 4-6 7-6(5)Roman Safiullin#131vJames McCabe#205Jun 25, 2023

1 total meetings

Roman Safiullin

10W 5L

6-7(4) 7-6(11) 6-1#189Zhizhen Zhang

6-3 6-2#143August Holmgren

4-6 6-3 6-2#344Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#87Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-4 6-7(1) 7-6(5)#188Alexis Galarneau

6-7(8) 7-6(1) 6-3#274Petr Bar Biryukov

6-2 7-6(5) 5-7 0-6 6-2#14Casper Ruud

6-3 6-7(2) 6-4#228Tom Gentzsch

6-4 6-4#174Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-4#166Mark Lajal

6-4 7-5#225Laslo Djere

5-7 7-6(5) 6-2#122Henrique Rocha

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#93Jaime Faria

6-3 3-6 6-2#165Lukas Neumayer

6-3 3-6 6-1#190David Jorda Sanchis

James McCabe

8W 7L

7-6(3) 6-4#197Remy Bertola

6-4 6-2—Rhys Lawlor

6-0 6-3#47Kamil Majchrzak

6-7(2) 6-2 7-6(4)#48Zizou Bergs

7-6(5) 6-4#734Sander Jong

3-6 6-4 6-3#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong

7-6(3) 6-3#47Kamil Majchrzak

3-6 6-3 6-4#108Martin Damm

6-2 6-3—William Moxon

6-3 7-6(1)#156Zdenek Kolar

6-3 7-6(1)#91Adam Walton

7-5 7-6(4)#342Tung-Lin Wu

4-6 6-4 6-2#257Andre Ilagan

6-1 6-4#116Leandro Riedi

6-7(6) 6-1 7-6(8)#126Dane Sweeny