Pedro Boscardin Dias #241Brazil00 – 2Kyrian Jacquet #145France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Jacquet's proven grass-court ability and recent top-200 wins give him a clear surface-fit edge over Boscardin Dias, who has never won a grass match.

• Jacquet has 5 career grass wins vs Boscardin Dias' 0, with a 3-2 grass record in 2026 including a win over Dimitrov.
• Boscardin Dias is 0-0 on grass career, with all 174 surface wins on clay and only 8 hard-court wins.
• Jacquet's recent form includes a 7-6(9) win over Dimitrov on grass and two tiebreak wins in his last 4 matches.
• Boscardin Dias lost his last grass-court match 7-5 6-0 to Choinski, winning only 5 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets in their recent matches have often been competitive, and with neither player holding serve easily, over 9.5 games is likely.

• Jacquet's last 4 second sets: 6-2, 7-6(9), 2-0 ret., 7-6(4) — 3 of 4 over 9.5 if we exclude the retirement.
• Boscardin Dias' last 5 second sets: 6-0, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-4 — 4 of 5 over 9.5.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates around 43%, indicating they can break but not at will.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.20

The read

Jacquet's strong recent first-set performance on grass and Boscardin Dias' lack of grass experience make Jacquet the likely set 1 winner.

• Jacquet won the first set in 3 of his last 4 matches, including against Dimitrov and Onclin on grass.
• Boscardin Dias lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay.
• Jacquet's first-set win conversion rate is 81% career, slightly above Boscardin Dias' 87% but on a surface where Boscardin Dias has no data.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.17

The read

Jacquet's ability to maintain level through the second set on grass, combined with Boscardin Dias' poor second-set showing in his lone grass match, points to a Jacquet set 2 win.

• Jacquet has won the second set in 3 of his last 4 matches, including a 7-6(9) tiebreak against Dimitrov.
• Boscardin Dias lost the second set 6-0 in his only grass match this season.
• Jacquet's win-on-second-serve percentage is 50% vs Boscardin Dias' 47%, a small edge that could matter in tight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.40

The read

Jacquet's straight-set wins on grass and Boscardin Dias' straight-set loss in his only grass match suggest a 2-0 outcome is plausible, though Boscardin Dias could steal a set.

• Jacquet won in straight sets in 2 of his last 4 matches, both on grass.
• Boscardin Dias lost in straight sets in 3 of his last 5 matches, including his only grass match.
• Jacquet's first-set win conversion rate is 81%, and he has not dropped a set in his last two grass wins.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have elevated double-fault rates, and the pressure of grass-court tennis should push the combined total over 5.5.

• Boscardin Dias has a 5.1% double-fault rate, Jacquet 4.5%, both above tour average.
• Boscardin Dias hit 3 double faults in his only grass match (vs Choinski).
• Jacquet's last 4 matches averaged 2.5 double faults, and grass can exacerbate serving errors.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Jacquet's recent grass matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and with both players having moderate serve holds, at least one set is likely to go to a breaker.

• Jacquet has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 4 matches, all on grass.
• Boscardin Dias played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches, though on clay.
• Both players have tiebreak win percentages above 55% career, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Grass-court conditions boost ace counts, and both players have moderate ace rates that should combine for at least 9 aces in a best-of-3 match.

• Jacquet averages 4.8 aces per match career, Boscardin Dias 4.3, but grass typically increases ace rates.
• Jacquet hit 5 aces in his last grass match (vs Dimitrov) and 4 vs Onclin.
• Boscardin Dias has no grass ace data, but his clay ace rate of 4.3% suggests he could contribute 3-4 aces on grass.