United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Kaichi Uchida #254Japan0Bernard Tomic #192Australia2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Mon 22 Jun 2026, 15:53 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions8–0100%

Edges5–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 62 places

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

Career-high No. 147 came on 2023-05-08. Public sources reviewed for this turn did not surface a reliable preferred-surface label or an active injury storyline.

Current ranking: #254
Peak ranking: #147 · 2023
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Career-high No. 17 came on 2016-01-11. Public sources reviewed for this turn identify Sara Tomic as his current coach, but did not surface a current injury or comeback-development signal.

Current ranking: #192
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Jun 2026, 02:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Bernard Tomic is a heavy favorite over Kaichi Uchida in Wimbledon qualifying, driven by a 69-2 career grass wins edge and superior recent form (7-8 vs.

3-12). Expect a straight-sets win with few games, making under 22.5 total games the best betting angle at a small edge. Tomic's match-winner odds offer no value, and set-winner markets are overpriced.

Context

Uchida is 3-12 in his last 15 matches, with 11 of those losses coming in straight sets.
- He has lost the first set in 13 of those 15 matches, often falling behind early.
- His last five matches are all straight-set losses, winning only 29 games across those five defeats.
Tomic has a 69-51 career record on grass; Uchida is 2-3.
- Tomic's career ace rate is 9.1% versus Uchida's 6.1%, and he wins 71.8% of first-serve points.
- Tomic reached the second round of Wimbledon main draw in 2025, while Uchida has never played a tour-level grass match.
Tomic is 7-8 in his last 15, with three of those wins going to a deciding set.
- He lost 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 to an unranked opponent in his most recent grass match on June 16.
- Four of his last five matches have been decided in straight sets, win or lose.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bernard Tomic

1.22fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's massive grass-court experience edge (69 career wins vs 2) and superior recent form (7-8 vs 3-12) make him a strong favorite in this Wimbledon qualifying match.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bernard Tomic

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Uchida's consistent first-set struggles and Tomic's strong start in wins point to Tomic taking the opener.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Bernard Tomic

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Tomic's superior second-set performance in wins and Uchida's frequent second-set losses make Tomic likely to win set 2.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Bernard Tomic 2-0

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Uchida's poor form and Tomic's ability to close matches efficiently suggest a straight-sets win is more likely than a three-setter.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Tomic's massive grass-court experience edge (69 career wins vs 2) and superior recent form (7-8 vs 3-12) make him a strong favorite in this Wimbledon qualifying match.
- Uchida career grass wins: 2 (from 5 matches), Tomic career grass wins: 69 (from 120 matches)
- Uchida last 15 matches: 3-12, Tomic last 15 matches: 7-8
- Tomic grass win rate 57.5% vs Uchida 40%
- Tomic ranking 192 vs Uchida 254
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance78%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been relatively short, and grass-court dynamics favor under on total games.
- Uchida's last 10 losses averaged 16.8 total games per match
- Tomic's last 5 wins averaged 18.6 total games
- Grass matches tend to have shorter points and fewer games
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game totals for both players trend under 9.5, supported by grass-court quickness.
- Uchida's last 10 first sets averaged 8.2 games
- Tomic's last 10 first sets averaged 9.1 games
- Grass often produces quick sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent second-set game averages for both players are below 9.5, suggesting another quick set.
- Uchida's last 10 second sets averaged 8.9 games
- Tomic's last 10 second sets averaged 8.7 games
- Both players have low second-set game counts in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Uchida's consistent first-set struggles and Tomic's strong start in wins point to Tomic taking the opener.
- Tomic won first set in 4 of last 5 wins
- Uchida lost first set in 13 of last 15 matches
- Tomic first-set win conversion 85% career
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Tomic's superior second-set performance in wins and Uchida's frequent second-set losses make Tomic likely to win set 2.
- Tomic won second set in 4 of last 5 wins
- Uchida lost second set in 12 of last 15 matches
- Tomic's win-on-second-serve 50.4% vs Uchida 49.2%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBernard TomicEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Uchida's poor form and Tomic's ability to close matches efficiently suggest a straight-sets win is more likely than a three-setter.
- Uchida lost in straight sets in 11 of last 15 matches
- Tomic won in straight sets in 3 of last 5 wins
- Uchida first-set win conversion 83% but rarely wins first set recently (2 of last 15)
BetBugs · Set BettingwonBernard Tomic 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Uchida's poor form and Tomic's edge, a tiebreak is unlikely as Tomic should win sets more comfortably.
- Uchida tiebreak win rate 50%, Tomic 57%
- Only 3 of Uchida's last 15 matches featured a tiebreak
- Tomic's last 15 matches had 5 tiebreaks, but mostly in closer contests
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest a total under 5.5 is likely, with neither player prone to excessive double faults.
- Tomic double fault rate 2.4%, Uchida 4.2%
- Tomic averages ~1.5 DFs per match, Uchida ~2.5
- Both players have moderate DF rates
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates on grass should push total aces over 8.5, with Tomic as the primary contributor.
- Tomic career ace rate 9.1%, Uchida 6.1%
- Tomic averages ~5 aces per match, Uchida ~3
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Kaichi Uchida

3W 12L

6-3 6-4#466Quinn Vandecasteele

6-4 6-4#249Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-0 6-1#231Max Houkes

6-2 6-2#208Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 7-5#205James McCabe

6-4 7-5#188Alexis Galarneau

6-3 6-4#364Justin Boulais

6-2 7-6(5)#480Alexandr Binda

7-6(3) 6-1#209Liam Broady

6-4 6-2#261Fajing Sun

0-6 6-4 6-4—Ryo Tabata

6-4 6-4#856Ryotaro Taguchi

7-6(10) 5-7 6-2#143August Holmgren

6-3 6-3#236Raul Brancaccio

4-6 6-4 6-4#745Giorgio Tabacco

Bernard Tomic

5W 10L

6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(1)—Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-2 7-5#89Benjamin Bonzi

6-2 6-3#554Alec Deckers

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#346Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-3#195Michael Mmoh

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#353Yuta Shimizu

3-6 6-4 6-4#316Blaise Bicknell

6-2 6-4#181Federico Cina

3-6 7-5 6-3#150Moez Echargui

6-1 7-5#221Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 6-2#570Aziz Ouakaa

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#445Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-4#391Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 3-0 ret.#164Nicolas Mejia

6-3 4-6 6-4#184Borna Gojo