Henrique Rocha #122Portugal11 – 2Nicolas Mejia #164Colombia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73

The read

The combination of Rocha's recent high-game matches and Mejia's tendency for close sets on faster surfaces supports a match total exceeding 21.5 games.

• Rocha's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
• Mejia's last 5 matches averaged 20.6 total games, but his grass match vs Zhou had 22 games, and his recent hard-court matches often exceeded 21.5.
• Both players have similar hold/break profiles, suggesting tight sets and potential tiebreaks, which inflate total games.
• In Bo3 grass matches, 21.5 is a common line, and with two players lacking dominant grass serves, extended rallies are likely.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

With both players holding serve effectively and recent first sets frequently reaching 10+ games, over 9.5 games in set one is likely.

• Rocha's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-6, 6-2, 7-6, 6-4 – all but one had 10+ games.
• Mejia's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 – three of five had 10+ games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 67-68%, indicating holds are common, and tiebreaks are plausible on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Mejia's recent second sets consistently exceed 9.5 games, and Rocha's mixed second-set scores still lean toward longer sets, making over 9.5 a reasonable low-confidence pick.

• Rocha's last 5 second sets: 6-1, 1-6, 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 – three of five had 10+ games.
• Mejia's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6 – four of five had 10+ games.
• Grass matches often see a tighter second set as the server adjusts, and both players have similar second-serve win rates (~50-51%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The combination of strong serving, recent tiebreak frequency, and grass-court dynamics makes a tiebreak in this match a probable occurrence.

• Rocha's tiebreak win percentage is 54%, and he has played tiebreaks in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Mejia's tiebreak win percentage is 51%, and he played a tiebreak in his most recent grass match vs Zhou.
• Both players have first-serve win rates around 67-68%, indicating strong holds and potential for 6-6 sets on grass.
• In Bo3 grass matches, tiebreaks occur in roughly 30-40% of sets, and with two evenly matched players, at least one tiebreak is likely.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Their combined double-fault average is near the 5.5 line, and grass conditions may push them just over, though the edge is small.

• Rocha's double-fault rate is 4.8% (career 1003 DFs in 319 matches, ~3.1 per match).
• Mejia's double-fault rate is 3.3% (career 1104 DFs in 523 matches, ~2.1 per match).
• Combined, they average ~5.2 double faults per match, and on grass, the pressure to hit bigger second serves can increase double faults slightly.
• In a potentially tight match with tiebreaks, more service points mean more double-fault opportunities.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Grass should elevate both players' ace counts slightly above their career averages, making over 8.5 aces a marginal but plausible outcome.

• Rocha's ace rate is 3.8% (career 804 aces in 319 matches, ~2.5 per match), but on grass his ace count may increase slightly.
• Mejia's ace rate is 4.8% (career 1615 aces in 523 matches, ~3.1 per match), and his higher first-serve percentage (62.1%) could produce more aces on grass.
• In a Bo3 match, 8.5 aces is a moderate line; combined, they average ~5.6 aces per match on all surfaces, but grass typically boosts ace counts by 10-20%.