United KingdomATP WimbledonFinished

Predictions graded

Clement Chidekh #200France0Aziz Dougaz #646Tunisia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Mon 22 Jun 2026, 10:03 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions2–625%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Chidekh · 446 places

Clement Chidekh

France

Reached a career-high No. 176 in April 2026. His listed Challenger and ITF singles finals are overwhelmingly hard-court based, making hard his clearest preferred-surface signal in the reviewed sources.

Current ranking: #200
Peak ranking: #176 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

Reached a career-high No. 185 in April 2025 and was listed at No. 646 on 15 June 2026. His published singles finals record is hard-court leaning, so hard is the clearest preferred-surface signal in the reviewed sources.

Current ranking: #646
Peak ranking: #185 · 2025
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jun 2026, 23:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Chidekh’s superior grass form and career-high momentum make him a clear favorite over the slumping Dougaz, but the moneyline is overpriced.

The best value lies in Chidekh 2-0 at 1.91, while avoiding the set 1 winner market due to Dougaz’s serving threat. Expect a tight match with overs on total games and aces.

Context

Dougaz career grass record: 0 wins, 3 losses.
- In 2026, Dougaz lost 6-4 6-2 to Raphael Collignon on grass.
- Chidekh has a 2-3 grass record in 2026, with wins over top-300 opponents.
Chidekh last 10: 6 wins, 4 losses; Dougaz last 10: 3 wins, 7 losses.
- Chidekh's wins include straight-set victories over Charles Broom (rank 273) and William Jansen.
- Dougaz's recent losses include defeats to players ranked 510, 536, and 892.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Clement Chidekh

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Chidekh's superior surface fit on grass and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge over the declining Dougaz.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Clement Chidekh

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Chidekh's first-set win rate is high, but the odds overestimate his edge given Dougaz's competitive H2H and recent form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Chidekh's superior surface fit on grass and recent form against stronger opposition give him a clear edge over the declining Dougaz.
- Chidekh has a 2-3 grass record in 2026, while Dougaz is 0-1 on grass this year and 0-3 career on grass.
- Chidekh's recent form includes wins over top-300 opponents on grass (Broom, Jansen) and competitive losses to higher-ranked players.
- Dougaz's ranking has dropped from a career-high 185 in April 2025 to 646, indicating a significant decline in level.
- Chidekh's first-serve win percentage (67.7%) and return points won (43%) are superior to Dougaz's (70.4% and 40%), but Chidekh faces weaker returners.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players indicate a tendency for matches to exceed 21.5 games, even in straight-set outcomes.
- Chidekh's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Dougaz's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have competitive recent matches, suggesting a close contest.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tight first sets recently, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Chidekh's last 5 first sets averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Dougaz's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- The H2H match had a first set of 10 games (7-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent second-set trends for both players show a slight lean toward over 9.5 games, though confidence is low.
- Chidekh's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Dougaz's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- The H2H second set had 9 games, but recent form suggests closer sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Chidekh's strong first-set record and Dougaz's slow starts on grass make Chidekh the likely set 1 winner.
- Chidekh has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including both grass wins.
- Dougaz has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including his only grass match this year.
- Chidekh's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dougaz's high ace rate and the H2H ace count suggest a combined total over 12.5 aces is likely, especially if the match extends.
- Dougaz has a 7.5% ace rate, significantly higher than Chidekh's 3.7%.
- In their H2H, Dougaz hit 13 aces in a straight-set match.
- Chidekh's ace rate is low, but combined they could surpass 12.5 aces if the match is competitive.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given their double-fault rates and the H2H data, a total over 5.5 double faults is slightly favored.
- Chidekh's double-fault rate is 4.8%, Dougaz's is 5.0%.
- In their H2H, they combined for 6 double faults in two sets.
- Both players average around 3-4 double faults per match recently.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for tight sets and a H2H tiebreak, there is a coin-flip chance of a tiebreak occurring.
- Chidekh has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 15 matches, Dougaz in 4 of his last 15.
- The H2H match featured a first-set tiebreak.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50%, indicating they often play close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(3) 6-3Clement Chidekh#200vAziz Dougaz#646Oct 27, 2023

1 total meetings

Clement Chidekh

6W 9L

7-5 2-6 6-3#177Colton Smith

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(13)#142Billy Harris

3-6 6-4 6-4#298Filippo Romano

6-3 7-6(3)#273Charles Broom

6-1 6-4—William Jansen

6-1 7-5#174Joel Schwaerzler

6-4 6-2#268Martin Krumich

7-5 6-2#266Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-3 6-3#104Rinky Hijikata

7-5 7-5#549Hyeon Chung

3-6 6-2 6-1#109Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-2#218Rio Noguchi

6-4 6-4#224Harry Wendelken

6-4 6-1#260Buvaysar Gadamauri

6-4 6-1#690Yuki Mochizuki

Aziz Dougaz

7W 8L

6-4 6-2#51Raphael Collignon

6-3 3-6 6-0#892Axel Garcian

6-3 3-6 6-0—Rodrigo Fernandes

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#510Yassine Dlimi

6-3 6-3—Facundo Yunis

7-5 6-3#536Toufik Sahtali

7-6(4) 6-3#898Markus Molder

6-4 6-4#898Marcello Serafini

6-3 1-6 6-4#222Felix Gill

7-5 4-6 4-0 ret.#191Tristan Boyer

7-6(3) 6-3#275Calvin Hemery

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)#256Florent Bax

6-4 6-3#568Millen Hurrion

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#329Paul Jubb

6-3 3-6 7-5#579Robin Catry