Andres Andrade #239Ecuador11 – 2Colton Smith #177United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Smith's proven grass-court experience and superior serve metrics give him a clear edge over Andrade, who has no grass wins and weaker recent form.

• Smith has 10 career grass wins vs Andrade's 0; Smith's 2025 grass record: 9-5, Andrade's 2026 grass: 0-1.
• Smith's recent form (last 5): 4-1, including a grass win over Chidekh; Andrade's last 5: 2-3, with a grass loss to Elamin.
• Smith holds a higher first-serve percentage (64.9% vs 57.5%) and ace rate (6.7% vs 3.8%), crucial on grass.
• Andrade's return points won (43%) slightly edges Smith's (40%), but Smith's break-point save rate (64.9%) is stronger than Andrade's (59%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

With both players showing solid hold games and Andrade's recent matches trending longer, over 21.5 total games is likely.

• Andrade's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Smith's averaged 20.8.
• Both players have high break-point save rates (Andrade 59%, Smith 64.9%), suggesting fewer breaks and longer sets.
• In Bo3 matches, 21.5 is a common line; their combined hold/break profiles point to at least one tight set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Historical second-set game counts hover near 9.5, and with neither player showing a dominant return edge, over 9.5 is a marginal lean.

• Andrade's last 5 second sets: 10, 10, 10, 8, 10 games; Smith's: 13, 8, 10, 10, 8.
• Both players have similar second-set game averages around 9-10, with occasional lopsided sets.
• No strong trend for quick second sets; both can hold serve under pressure.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Smith's strong first-set record and recent form, combined with Andrade's grass struggles, make Smith the likely set 1 winner.

• Smith's first-set win conversion rate is 91% career, Andrade's is 89%.
• Smith's last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5; Andrade won first set in 2 of last 5.
• On grass, Smith's serve (64.9% first serves, 68.8% win on first) should pressure Andrade's weaker return early.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

While Smith is favored, Andrade's tendency to push matches to three sets and his fighting stats suggest a possible decider, though not a strong probability.

• Andrade's last 5 matches: 3 went to 3 sets; Smith's last 5: 1 went to 3 sets.
• Andrade's deciding set win rate is 51%, Smith's is 66%, indicating Smith is stronger if it goes the distance.
• Both players have comeback rates around 21-22%, showing resilience.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Smith's superior serving on grass should push the total aces over 8.5, though Andrade's low ace rate keeps confidence low.

• Smith averages 6.7 aces per match (ace rate 6.7%), Andrade 3.8 (ace rate 3.8%).
• In a Bo3 match, combined ace counts often reach 8-10 on grass.
• Smith's higher ace rate and first-serve percentage should contribute the majority.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Andrade's higher double fault tendency on a surface that rewards aggressive returning could lead to over 5.5 total double faults.

• Andrade's double fault rate is 5.2%, Smith's is 3.2%.
• Andrade averages about 5 double faults per match based on his rate and games played.
• Combined, they could reach 6+ double faults, especially if Andrade's second serve is pressured.