WTA EastbourneFinished

Predictions graded

Peyton Stearns #64United States2Emily Appleton #444United Kingdom0

Sets 7-5 · 6-3Sat 20 Jun 2026, 13:55 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–183%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePeyton Stearns · 380 places

Peyton Stearns

United States

Career-high No. 28 came on 2025-05-19. WTA lists hard as her favorite surface, and she is a two-time WTA singles champion.

Current ranking: #64
Peak ranking: #28 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Emily Appleton

United Kingdom

British player with a stronger doubles resume than singles at tour level, including a WTA 125 doubles title in Midland in 2024. Public profile sources do not clearly state a preferred surface or height.

Current ranking: #444
Peak ranking: #347 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Jun 2026, 15:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Stearns' ranking and grass experience make her a heavy favorite over Appleton, with a straight-sets win likely.

The under 19.5 total games offers the best value, while the under 2.5 sets market is a trap due to Appleton's potential to extend the match on home grass.

Context

Stearns' last 15 matches include wins over Sakkari (No. 41), Kenin (No. 104), and Snigur (No. 75), and competitive losses to Bencic (No. 11) and Sabalenka (No. 1).
- Appleton's last 15 matches are almost entirely against players ranked 200 or lower, with losses to No. 141 Masarova and No. 202 Tan.
- Stearns holds a 57.9% career win rate at WTA level; Appleton's 50.7% win rate comes mostly from ITF tournaments.
Appleton's career return points won is 43%, well below the tour average.
- In her last five losses, Appleton won only 5, 4, 3, 8, and 6 games, failing to break serve effectively.
- Grass amplifies serve dominance, and Stearns' first-serve win rate (62.6%) is solid.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Stearns holds a massive ranking and class edge, with recent wins over top-100 players and prior Eastbourne grass success, while Appleton struggles at tour level and on grass.
- Stearns ranking #64 vs Appleton #444
- Stearns 2026 hard/clay win rate ~50% vs top-100 opponents; Appleton mostly ITF-level wins
- Stearns 2025 Eastbourne main-draw win shows grass experience at this venue
- Appleton 1-2 on grass in 2026, career 17-24 on grass
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPeyton StearnsEstimated chance82%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Stearns' ability to dominate weaker opponents and Appleton's poor return stats on a fast surface point to a relatively quick match with few total games.
- Stearns recent wins: 12 games lost vs Snigur, 6 vs Kenin, 4 vs Sakkari
- Appleton recent losses: 12 games lost vs Masarova, 12 vs Sato, 12 vs Kaji
- Grass tends to produce shorter points and fewer games
- Stearns holds serve 62.6% on first, 46% on second; Appleton return points won only 43%
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Stearns' ability to win comfortably against lower-ranked opponents and Appleton's heavy losses suggest Stearns can cover a -4.5 game handicap.
- Stearns average games won margin in wins: +6.3 (last 5 wins)
- Appleton average games lost margin in losses: -7.8 (last 5 losses)
- Stearns holds serve 62.6% on first, 46% on second; Appleton return points won only 43%
- Grass surface favors server, but Stearns' return game is stronger
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonPeyton Stearns -4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stearns' ability to hold serve easily and Appleton's weak return game on grass suggest a quick first set with few games.
- Stearns recent set scores: 6-3, 6-3, 6-1, 6-3, 6-4
- Appleton recent set scores: 6-2, 6-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-3
- Grass surface amplifies serve dominance
- Stearns first-serve win rate 62.6% vs Appleton return win rate 43%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Stearns wins the first set, her momentum and Appleton's poor second-set record in losses point to another quick set.
- Stearns often closes matches with 6-3 or 6-4 second sets
- Appleton lost second set 6-3 or worse in 6 of last 10 losses
- Grass matches tend to have shorter second sets when one player dominates
- Stearns break point conversion 48.7% vs Appleton break point save 54.8%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Stearns' strong first-set record and Appleton's tendency to drop the opener against lower-tier opponents give Stearns a clear edge in set 1.
- Stearns first-set win conversion 86% career
- Appleton lost first set in 8 of last 15 matches
- Stearns won first set in 10 of last 15 matches
- Stearns 2026 first-set record: 11-4 on hard/clay
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPeyton StearnsEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Stearns' superior serve and return stats, combined with Appleton's frequent straight-set losses against lower-ranked players, make a 2-0 win likely.
- Stearns won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Appleton lost 7 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Stearns first-set win conversion 86% career
- Appleton first-set win conversion 84% but against much weaker opposition
BetBugs · Set BettingwonPeyton Stearns 2-0Estimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Stearns' expected dominance and the low tiebreak frequency in both players' recent matches, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Stearns tiebreak win rate 47%, Appleton 46%
- Stearns recent matches: only 2 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Appleton recent matches: 3 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Grass often produces fewer tiebreaks due to serve dominance
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Appleton's high ace rate and the grass surface should push the combined ace total over 5.5, even if Stearns contributes fewer.
- Stearns ace rate 3%, Appleton ace rate 6.7%
- Appleton has 1972 career aces in 475 matches (~4.2 per match)
- Grass surface increases ace counts
- Stearns 650 career aces in 335 matches (~1.9 per match)
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double fault rates, especially Appleton, making over 7.5 double faults likely on grass.
- Stearns double fault rate 5.3%, Appleton 8.1%
- Appleton 2366 career double faults in 475 matches (~5 per match)
- Stearns 1165 career double faults in 335 matches (~3.5 per match)
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Peyton Stearns

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#11Belinda Bencic

6-4 6-0#75Daria Snigur

6-3 6-3#104Sofia Kenin

6-1 6-3#69Daria Kasatkina

6-3 6-1#41Maria Sakkari

4-6 6-4 6-2#28Madison Keys

6-4 6-4#43Janice Tjen

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#309Aliona Bolsova

7-5 6-3#1Aryna Sabalenka

6-1 6-3#154Lois Boisson

6-0 3-6 6-4#44Mccartney Kessler

7-6(8) 7-5#95Ashlyn Krueger

6-4 7-5#40Jaqueline Cristian

7-6(6) 6-4#76Viktorija Golubic

7-5 7-5#58Solana Sierra

Emily Appleton

9W 6L

7-5 6-3#202Harmony Tan

3-6 6-1 6-2—Tegan Bush

6-2 6-3#141Rebeka Masarova

6-3 6-1#631Naho Sato

6-2 7-5#875Mana Kawamura

6-1 6-2#288Haruka Kaji

6-3 7-5#248Alicia Dudeney

6-2 6-2#491Julia Adams

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 6-4#898Eliz Maloney

3-6 6-3 6-4#626Clara Vlasselaer

6-2 6-4#633Indianna Spink

6-3 6-3#302Yuriko Miyazaki

6-4 7-6(5)#540Mariam Bolkvadze

6-3 6-0#743Sabine Rutlauka

6-3 7-5#604Alice Gillan

Peyton Stearns

Emily Appleton

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns 2-0

Peyton Stearns 2-0

Under 19.5

Peyton Stearns

Peyton Stearns -4.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Peyton Stearns

Emily Appleton