Kilian Feldbausch #290Switzerland00 – 2Max Alcala Gurri #272Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Feldbausch's superior recent form and surface dominance, combined with a higher first-set win rate, give him a slight edge in this clay-court semi-final.

• Feldbausch is 22-6 on clay in 2026, including a Challenger title in Kosice.
• Alcala Gurri is 40-10 on clay in 2026, but his recent form includes a loss to Dali Blanch (rank 291) and a tight three-setter vs. Sanchez Jover (rank 371).
• Feldbausch has won 8 of his last 10 matches, all on clay, with dominant scorelines (e.g., 6-4 6-2, 6-2 6-4).
• Feldbausch's first-set win conversion is 87%, and he has a higher break-point save rate (54.6% vs. 53.7%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of this semi-final, with both players in good form, suggests a match with at least 22 games.

• Both players have been involved in tight matches recently: Feldbausch's last three wins averaged 20.3 games, Alcala Gurri's last three wins averaged 22.3 games.
• Alcala Gurri's last match went to 33 games, and Feldbausch has played multiple three-setters in the past month.
• Clay-court matches between evenly matched players often exceed 21.5 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The second set is likely to be competitive, with a good chance of exceeding 9.5 games based on recent trends.

• In Feldbausch's last 5 matches, the second set has averaged 9.2 games.
• Alcala Gurri's last 5 matches have seen second sets averaging 9.6 games.
• Both players have been involved in tight second sets, with several going to 10 or more games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Feldbausch's high first-set win rate and recent pattern of strong starts make him the favorite to take the opening set.

• Feldbausch has won the first set in 13 of his last 15 matches.
• Alcala Gurri lost the first set in his last match against Sanchez Jover and in his loss to Dali Blanch.
• Feldbausch's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, indicating strong starts.