Karolina Pliskova #87Czechia22 – 0Caty McNally #54United States0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

The combination of Pliskova's serve-reliant style and both players' ability to break serve should push the total games over 21.5.

• Pliskova's last three matches have averaged 25.3 games per match.
• McNally's last three matches have averaged 20.3 games, but her matches against stronger opponents tend to be longer.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Pliskova 44.8%, McNally 49.8%), leading to more games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83

The read

With both players capable of holding serve and breaking, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.

• Pliskova's last three first sets have had 8, 10, and 8 games, averaging 8.7.
• McNally's last three first sets have had 9, 10, and 9 games, averaging 9.3.
• Both players have strong serves, but McNally's return game can extend the set.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Historical data suggests the second set could be tight, but the low confidence reflects variability in both players' performances.

• Pliskova's last three second sets have had 13, 10, and 7 games, averaging 10.
• McNally's last three second sets have had 6, 10, and 9 games, averaging 8.3.
• The second set often sees adjustments, leading to closer games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pliskova's powerful serve is a major weapon on grass, making it likely that total aces will exceed 8.5.

• Pliskova averages 9.3 aces per match, with a career ace rate of 9.3%.
• McNally averages only 2.8 aces per match, but Pliskova's serve alone can push the total over.
• On grass, Pliskova's ace count tends to be higher due to the surface speed.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault rates of both players suggest a high likelihood of exceeding 5.5 double faults.

• Pliskova averages 5.1 double faults per match, with a double fault rate of 5.1%.
• McNally averages 6.2 double faults per match, with a double fault rate of 6.2%.
• Both players have high double fault rates, especially under pressure on grass.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The serve-oriented nature of both players on grass increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.

• Pliskova has played a tiebreak in 3 of her last 5 matches.
• McNally has played a tiebreak in 2 of her last 5 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50%, indicating close sets.