Royan - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Daniel Jade #776France0Raphael Perot #410France2

Sets 1-6 · 0-6Wed 17 Jun 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaphael Perot · 366 places

Daniel Jade

France

Current ranking in the provided structured data is No. 776. The requested public searches did not surface reliable age, career-high, or surface-preference details.

Current ranking: #776
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Raphael Perot

France

Current ranking in the provided structured data is No. 410. The requested public searches did not surface reliable age, career-high, or surface-preference details.

Current ranking: #410
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Jun 2026, 19:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Raphael Perot is favored over Daniel Jade in this Challenger 50 clay-court match, with a 62% win probability driven by superior return stats and a 67.5% career win rate.

Betting edges include Perot to win the match (12-point edge), Perot to win set 1 (8.7-point edge), and over 9.5 games in set 1 (9.6-point edge). Avoid Perot 2-0 at 3.20 due to Jade's resilience.

Context

Jade is 11-4 on clay in 2026, with all 11 wins coming in his last 15 matches.
- He won five straight matches to claim the M15 title in late May, dropping only one set in that run.
- His wins have come against lower-ranked opponents (average rank ~500), but the volume of victories indicates strong current form.
Perot's career return points won percentage is 44%, while Jade's is 39%.
- Perot converts break points at a 48% rate, well above Jade's 41%.
- In his last match, Perot broke Robin Bertrand (ranked 284) three times, showing this skill against a higher-ranked opponent.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Perot's superior return game and higher career win rate on clay give him a structural edge, supported by stronger recent form against better opposition.
- Perot has a 67.5% career win rate vs Jade's 47.2%
- Perot's return points won (44%) and break point conversion (48%) significantly exceed Jade's (39% and 41%)
- Perot's recent form: 8-3 in last 11 matches, including wins over higher-ranked opponents (Bertrand #284, Poullain #423)
- Jade's recent wins have come against lower-ranked players (avg opponent rank ~500), while Perot has faced tougher competition
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRaphael PerotEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' solid serving and competitive recent matches point to a match exceeding 21.5 total games.
- Jade's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games
- Perot's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games
- Both players have high hold rates (Jade 63% first serve win, Perot 66%), suggesting fewer breaks and longer sets
- In their recent matches, 70% of sets have gone over 9.5 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong serving and recent first-set trends suggest a tight opening set with over 9.5 games.
- Jade's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games
- Perot's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games
- Both players have first-serve win percentages above 60%, reducing early break likelihood
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical second-set game counts hover near the line, giving a slight edge to the over based on recent averages.
- Jade's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games
- Perot's last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games
- In matches where both players hold serve early, second sets tend to stay close
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Perot's exceptional first-set conversion rate and recent pattern of starting strong make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Perot's first-set win conversion rate is 92% (career), Jade's is 78%
- Perot has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 wins
- Jade lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches against top-200 opponents
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRaphael PerotEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While both prefer straight-set wins, the competitive nature of this matchup could push it to three sets, though probability is near even.
- Jade has played 3 three-set matches in his last 15 (20%)
- Perot has played 2 three-set matches in his last 15 (13%)
- Both players have strong first-set win rates, but when they lose the first set, they often force a decider
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slightly above-average ace rates for both players on clay push the total aces projection over 7.5.
- Perot averages 3.2 aces per match (career), Jade 2.7
- Combined ace rate suggests ~6 aces per match, but recent form shows higher numbers (Perot had 5 aces in his last match)
- Clay surface typically reduces aces, but both players have above-average ace rates for the surface
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates combine to exceed 5.5 on average, though clay may slightly reduce this number.
- Jade averages 3.5 double faults per match, Perot 2.9
- Combined average is 6.4 double faults per match
- Recent matches show both players averaging 3+ double faults
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Daniel Jade

11W 4L

4-6 6-2 6-3#887Michael Zhu

6-2 6-2#404Arthur Nagel

6-2 6-3—Hugo Car

2-6 7-6(3) 6-4—Mathys Domenc

6-1 6-3#868Adan Freire Da Silva

6-2 6-2#423Lucas Poullain

6-3 6-3#143August Holmgren

6-4 6-4#244Daniel Evans

6-4 3-6 6-2#182Elias Ymer

6-4 6-4#645Iliyan Radulov

1-6 6-4 6-2#240Dan Added

7-6(6) 4-6 6-1—Benoit Torcq

6-2 6-4#686Yaroslav Demin

6-2 6-1—Pablo Sanchez Martin

4-6 6-1 6-3#55Martin Landaluce

Raphael Perot

9W 6L

7-6(7) 7-5#284Robin Bertrand

6-3 6-2#191Tristan Boyer

6-4 6-3#423Lucas Poullain

7-6(3) 6-2—Noah Karma

6-4 7-5#296Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 6-2—David Eichenseher

7-6(6) 7-6(6)—Hugo Car

6-2 6-2#615Emilien Demanet

3-6 6-2 6-1#811Lucas Bouquet

6-1 6-4#322Felix Balshaw

6-4 6-4#734Sander Jong

7-5 6-3—Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi

6-3 6-3—Florent Lagarrigue

6-3 6-2#804Jeff Wolf

6-2 6-3#698Andreja Petrovic