ATP LondonFinished

Predictions graded

Brandon Nakashima #32United States2Ignacio Buse #35Peru0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Wed 17 Jun 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBrandon Nakashima · 3 places

Brandon Nakashima

United States

Career-high No. 29 came on 5 May 2025. ATP bio lists hard as his favourite surface. Public player pages show Rick Leach as coach from the 2026 season.

Current ranking: #32
Peak ranking: #29 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Ignacio Buse

Peru

Career-high No. 31 came on 25 May 2026 after his Hamburg ATP 500 title that month. Publicly available ATP and Wikipedia profile data does not clearly state a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #35
Peak ranking: #31 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Jun 2026, 19:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Nakashima's grass-court pedigree and superior serve give him a clear edge over clay-specialist Buse, who has minimal grass experience.

The American is likely to win in straight sets, but Buse's resilience could push the total games over 21.5. Best value lies in Nakashima 2-0 at 1.80, while avoiding the short moneyline and Buse to win a set.

Context

Buse's career surface wins: 141 clay, 23 hard, 1 grass, 1 indoor hard.
- He needed three sets and a tiebreak to beat Marcos Giron in the first round, showing adjustment issues.
- His first-serve win percentage on grass is 67.5%, well below Nakashima's 75%.
Nakashima's career grass record: 31-14 (68.9%).
- He beat Marton Fucsovics 6-3 6-3 in the first round, winning 75% of first-serve points.
- His last five matches on grass include a win over Fucsovics and a competitive loss to Felix Auger-Aliassime at Roland Garros.
Buse won the Hamburg title on 23 May, playing seven matches in eight days.
- He then played four matches at Roland Garros, losing in the second round on 25 May.
- His first-round match at Queen's went to three sets and over two hours, adding to the load.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Brandon Nakashima

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Nakashima's grass experience and serve advantage are priced too aggressively, offering no value at 1.30.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Nakashima's substantial grass-court experience and superior serve/return structure give him a clear edge over Buse, who is a clay specialist with minimal grass pedigree.
- Nakashima grass career win rate 68% (31-14), Buse 50% (1-1) with only 2 career grass matches
- Nakashima won 6-3 6-3 vs Fucsovics in R1 on grass, Buse needed 3 sets and a tiebreak vs Giron
- Nakashima hold/break profile on grass: 75% first-serve win, 63.5% break-point save; Buse 67.5% first-serve win, 58.9% break-point save
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Buse's fighting qualities and Nakashima's solid but not dominant grass game should produce at least 22 games, especially if a tiebreak or three sets occur.
- Nakashima R1 total games: 18 (6-3 6-3); Buse R1 total games: 34 (3-6 7-5 7-6)
- Buse's last 5 matches average 22.6 total games, Nakashima's 20.8
- Both players have high first-set win conversion (85%), suggesting competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players tend to start matches competitively, and with Buse's return ability, the first set is likely to see at least 10 games.
- Nakashima R1 set 1: 9 games; Buse R1 set 1: 9 games
- Buse's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 first sets had 9+ games
- Nakashima tiebreak win% 53%, Buse 57%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players having moderate second-serve win rates, extended games are possible in set 2, especially if Buse pushes back.
- Nakashima R1 set 2: 9 games; Buse R1 set 2: 12 games
- Buse's last 5 matches: 3 of 5 second sets had 10+ games
- Nakashima second-serve win% 53.8%, Buse 49.4%
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Nakashima's stronger serve and quicker start on grass, combined with Buse's slow opening set in R1, point to Nakashima taking the first set.
- Nakashima first-set win conversion 85% career, Buse also 85% but on clay-heavy sample
- Nakashima won first set 6-3 in R1 on grass; Buse lost first set 3-6 in R1
- Nakashima first-serve win% 74.6% overall, Buse 67.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima's consistent set-by-set performance on grass and Buse's likely fatigue from a long R1 match give Nakashima a slight edge in set 2.
- Nakashima won second set 6-3 in R1; Buse won second set 7-5 after losing first
- Nakashima return points won 37% career, Buse 42% but on clay
- Nakashima break-point convert 37.6%, Buse 43.7%
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonBrandon NakashimaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nakashima's high ace rate on grass should push the total over 8.5, even with Buse contributing few aces.
- Nakashima ace rate 9.5% (career 3231 aces in 457 matches), Buse 3.9% (711 in 269 matches)
- On grass, Nakashima's ace rate likely higher; Buse's low ace rate limits total
- Nakashima R1: likely 5-7 aces in 18 games; Buse R1: likely 2-3 aces in 34 games
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Buse's elevated double-fault rate, especially under grass-court pressure, combined with Nakashima's steady rate, makes over 5.5 double faults plausible.
- Nakashima double-fault rate 2.2%, Buse 3.4%
- Buse's higher double-fault rate and pressure on second serve could lead to 3-4 DFs
- Nakashima's low DF rate (2.2%) suggests 1-2 DFs
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Brandon Nakashima

7W 8L

6-3 6-3#76Marton Fucsovics

5-7 6-1 7-6(4) 7-6(1)#4Felix Auger Aliassime

6-7(5) 6-4 5-7 6-1 6-3#100Luca Van Assche

6-2 7-5 6-2#115Roberto Bautista Agut

7-6(5) 6-4#118Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-0#115Roberto Bautista Agut

3-6 6-3 6-4#37Alexander Blockx

6-2 6-3#21Arthur Fils

6-3 7-5#45Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-4 2-6 6-4#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

7-6(0) 6-2#108Martin Damm

2-6 6-4 7-6(7)#46Marin Cilic

7-6(2) 5-7 6-4#3Alexander Zverev

6-3 6-4#58Camilo Ugo Carabelli

3-6 7-6(6) 6-4#26Frances Tiafoe

Ignacio Buse

11W 4L

3-6 7-5 7-6(8)#86Marcos Giron

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#13Andrey Rublev

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#28Tommy Paul

6-1 6-4#68Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-3 5-7 6-3#33Ugo Humbert

6-0 6-3#16Jakub Mensik

6-2 7-5#10Flavio Cobolli

6-1 6-2#117Hugo Gaston

6-2 6-0#820Niels Mcdonald

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2#26Frances Tiafoe

6-3 6-3#65Lorenzo Sonego

6-4 6-0#31Alejandro Tabilo

6-4 6-2#310Thomas Faurel

7-6(4) 6-3#88Francisco Comesana

6-7(4) 7-6(3) 7-5#21Arthur Fils