Billy Harris #142United Kingdom22 – 1Arthur Gea #135France1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95

The read

Harris's 2-0 H2H edge, superior grass-court experience, and a quality R1 win over a top-110 opponent give him a clear advantage in this matchup.

• H2H: Harris leads 2-0, both wins in straight sets on hard/indoor hard, with tiebreaks in each match.
• Surface: Harris has a stronger grass-court record (37 career wins vs Gea's 2), and is 3-2 on grass in 2026.
• Recent form: Harris beat No. 109 Wong in R1 here, while Gea beat a qualifier ranked 385.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H trend and both players' recent match lengths indicate a close contest likely exceeding 22.5 games.

• H2H: Both previous matches had 23+ games (25 and 23 games).
• Recent matches: Harris's last 5 matches averaged 25.8 games; Gea's averaged 22.6.
• Serve/return: Both players have similar hold/break profiles, suggesting competitive sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given the tight H2H and both players' recent competitive matches, Gea is likely to keep the game difference within 3.5 games.

• H2H: Both matches were decided by 3 games or fewer (25 games total in first, 23 in second).
• Recent form: Harris's last 5 wins were by margins of 4, 2, 2, and 6 games; Gea's losses were by 3, 5, 6, and 6 games.
• Surface: Grass matches often have small margins; Gea's serve stats are comparable to Harris's.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H pattern and both players' tendency to hold serve early suggest a first set with at least 10 games.

• H2H: First sets were 7-5 and 6-4, both over 9.5 games.
• Recent form: Harris's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games; Gea's averaged 9.4.
• Serve stats: Both players save break points at ~60%, extending games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H shows tight second sets, and both players have decent tiebreak records, making an over 9.5 games likely.

• H2H: Second sets were 7-6(6) and 7-6(4), both over 9.5.
• Recent form: Harris's last 5 second sets averaged 10.4 games; Gea's averaged 9.2.
• Tiebreak history: Both H2H matches had second-set tiebreaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95

The read

Harris's history of taking early leads against Gea and his strong first-set conversion rate support a set-one win.

• H2H: Harris won the first set in both previous meetings (7-5, 6-4).
• First-set conversion: Harris has an 86% career win rate after winning the first set.
• Recent form: Harris won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against Wong.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Harris's higher ace rate and the grass surface should push the total aces over 12.5 in a likely close match.

• Career ace rates: Harris 6.6%, Gea 4.2%.
• H2H: Combined aces were 21 in two matches (avg 10.5 per match).
• Grass surface: Typically boosts ace counts; Harris had 5 aces in his R1 win.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The H2H pattern and both players' frequent tiebreak involvement make a tiebreak in this match highly probable.

• H2H: Both previous matches featured at least one tiebreak (3 total tiebreaks in 2 matches).
• Career tiebreak rates: Harris 49%, Gea 60%.
• Recent form: Harris has played 4 tiebreaks in last 5 matches; Gea has played 3 in last 5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double fault rates, and the H2H average of 7 per match suggests a slight lean toward over 6.5.

• Career double fault rates: Harris 4.5%, Gea 4.8%.
• H2H: Combined double faults were 14 in two matches (avg 7 per match).
• Recent form: Harris averaged 3.2 DFs in last 5; Gea averaged 2.8.