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Predictions graded

Sara Bejlek #47Czechia1Karolina Pliskova #87Czechia2

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 2-6Tue 16 Jun 2026, 15:20 Predictions gradedGrass

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–420%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Bejlek · 40 places

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Czech left-hander born in 2006. She broke through in 2026 by winning Abu Dhabi and reached a career-high No. 34 on 2026-04-06. WTA's profile describes her as a variety-based player who uses left-handed angles and craft rather than pure power.

Current ranking: #47
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Karolina Pliskova

Czechia

Former world No. 1 and 2021 Wimbledon finalist. Her ranking drop followed the left-ankle injury and surgery that ended 2024 and kept her off most of 2025. The 2026 season is a comeback year rather than a full return to peak level.

Current ranking: #87
Peak ranking: #1 · 2017
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 186 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Jun 2026, 19:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Pliskova’s elite serve and grass-court pedigree (68.4% career win rate) give her a decisive edge over Bejlek, who has minimal grass experience and poor recent form.

Expect a straight-set win with low total games, and value lies in under 20.5 games and Pliskova 2-0 set betting. The match-winner odds are too short to back, but Pliskova should advance comfortably.

Context

Pliskova's career grass record: 67 wins, 31 losses (68.4%).
- Bejlek's career grass record: 2 wins, 5 losses (28.6%).
- Pliskova won Nottingham in 2016 and was runner-up in 2024.
- Bejlek has never won a main-draw grass match at WTA level.
Last 5 matches: all straight-set losses, including 6-1 6-2 vs Yastremska on grass.
- In those 5 losses, she averaged 5.0 games won per match.
- She has not won a set since May 24, 2026.
- Opponents in those losses include top-50 players Swiatek, Navarro, and Yastremska.
Pliskova ace rate: 9.3% vs Bejlek 0.6%.
- Pliskova first-serve win%: 70.5% vs Bejlek 58.1%.
- Pliskova's serve has historically been a key factor on grass, where she holds serve more easily.
- Bejlek's low ace count and weaker first serve will struggle to pressure Pliskova's return game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Pliskova's massive serve edge and proven grass-court pedigree (Nottingham finalist 2024, champion 2016) give her a clear surface-fit advantage over Bejlek, who has minimal grass experience and poor recent form on the surface.
- Pliskova career grass win% 67-31 (68.4%), Bejlek 2-5 (28.6%)
- Pliskova 2026 grass 2-1, Bejlek 0-1 with 3 games won vs Yastremska
- Pliskova last 5: 3-2 with wins over Siegemund, Cristian, Bouzas Maneiro; Bejlek 1-4 with heavy losses to top-50 opponents
- Pliskova serve: 9.3% ace rate, 70.5% first-serve win% vs Bejlek 0.6% ace rate, 58.1% first-serve win%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonKarolina PliskovaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have trended toward lower game totals, and Pliskova's powerful serve on grass should limit extended rallies, keeping the match under 21.5 games.
- Bejlek's last 5 losses averaged 15.2 total games per match
- Pliskova's last 5 wins averaged 19.6 total games per match
- Grass matches tend to have shorter points and fewer games
- Pliskova's serve dominance can produce quick holds and break advantages
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bejlek's tendency to lose first sets decisively and Pliskova's ability to hold serve quickly on grass point to a first set under 9.5 games, though variance is high.
- Bejlek's last 4 first sets: 1-6, 2-6, 1-6, 4-6 (avg 8.0 games)
- Pliskova's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 6-2, 6-7, 6-1, 4-6 (avg 9.4 games)
- Grass surface amplifies serve dominance, reducing game counts
- Pliskova ace rate 9.3% can produce quick holds
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Assuming Pliskova wins the first set, Bejlek's second-set collapses in recent matches suggest another quick set, though the line is tight.
- Bejlek's last 5 second sets: 2-6, 3-6, 2-6, 4-6, 0-6 (avg 8.2 games)
- Pliskova's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 3-4 ret., 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 (avg 8.6 games)
- If Pliskova leads, Bejlek may fade as seen in recent losses
- Pliskova's break-point save rate 60.5% limits extended games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Pliskova's superior serve and Bejlek's slow starts in recent matches make Pliskova the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Pliskova won first set in 8 of last 15 matches (53%), Bejlek in 5 of 15 (33%)
- Bejlek lost first set in last 4 matches, all by 6-1 or 6-4
- Pliskova's first-serve win% 70.5% vs Bejlek's return points win% 49%
- Pliskova career first-set win conversion 87%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKarolina PliskovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Bejlek's recent straight-set losses against strong opposition and Pliskova's ability to close matches efficiently on grass suggest a 2-0 outcome is more likely than a three-setter.
- Bejlek lost last 5 matches in straight sets, winning ≤5 games in 4 of them
- Pliskova won 4 of last 6 completed matches in straight sets
- Bejlek first-set win% in last 15: 33% (5/15), Pliskova 53% (8/15)
- Pliskova first-set win conversion 87% career, Bejlek 93% but on clay-heavy sample
BetBugs · Set BettinglostKarolina Pliskova 2-0Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Bejlek's inability to push matches to a third set recently and Pliskova's straight-set efficiency on grass make under 2.5 sets the more probable outcome.
- Bejlek's last 5 losses all in straight sets
- Pliskova's last 6 wins: 4 in straight sets, 2 in three sets
- Bejlek deciding-set win% 67% career but only 1 three-setter in last 15 matches
- Pliskova deciding-set win% 61% career, 2-1 in three-setters in last 15
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Pliskova's elite ace rate on a fast grass court should comfortably push the total aces over 8.5, even with minimal contribution from Bejlek.
- Pliskova career ace rate 9.3%, averaging ~6-8 aces per match in Bo3
- Bejlek ace rate 0.6%, unlikely to contribute significantly
- Grass surface enhances ace counts for big servers
- Pliskova's last 5 matches: estimated 5-10 aces per match based on rate
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With Pliskova likely to win sets by breaks rather than tight holds, and Bejlek's recent inability to stay competitive, a tiebreak is less probable.
- Bejlek tiebreak win% 57% career, but only 1 tiebreak in last 15 matches
- Pliskova tiebreak win% 50% career, 2 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Grass matches often feature fewer tiebreaks due to serve dominance leading to breaks
- Pliskova's first-set win% and Bejlek's poor starts reduce tiebreak likelihood
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and Pliskova's aggressive second serve on grass could push the total over 5.5, though it's a close call.
- Pliskova double-fault rate 5.1%, Bejlek 3.9%
- Combined average double faults per match ~5-7 based on rates
- Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive second serves
- Pliskova's high-risk second serve (44.9% win%) may increase double faults
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Sara Bejlek

8W 7L

6-1 6-2#50Dayana Yastremska

6-2 6-3#3Iga Swiatek

6-3 6-2#315Sloane Stephens

6-1 6-4#25Emma Navarro

6-4 6-0#128Alina Charaeva

6-4 6-4#42Laura Siegemund

7-6(4) 6-2#11Belinda Bencic

6-1 6-1#176Akasha Urhobo

6-1 6-0#66Talia Gibson

6-2 6-2#61Zeynep Sonmez

7-6(5) 6-1#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

7-5 3-6 7-5#23Clara Tauson

6-0 6-2#83Sonay Kartal

6-4 6-3#38Jelena Ostapenko

6-3 6-0#95Ashlyn Krueger

Karolina Pliskova

10W 5L

6-4 4-6 6-3#33Donna Vekic

6-2 3-4 ret.#9Victoria Mboko

6-7(1) 6-3 6-4#44Mccartney Kessler

6-3 6-2#144Marina Bassols Ribera

0-6 6-3 6-1#186Yeon Woo Ku

6-0 6-2#2Elena Rybakina

6-1 6-4#42Laura Siegemund

6-7(5) 7-6(2) 6-4#40Jaqueline Cristian

4-6 6-3 7-5#55Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-1 6-7(4) 6-3#26Anastasia Potapova

6-4 6-3#58Solana Sierra

7-5 2-6 7-6(3)#24Elise Mertens

6-4 7-6(6)#41Maria Sakkari

2-6 6-1 6-4#92Sinja Kraus

7-5 6-4#33Donna Vekic

Sara Bejlek

Karolina Pliskova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 20.5

Karolina Pliskova 2-0

Under 2.5

Karolina Pliskova

Karolina Pliskova

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Sara Bejlek

Karolina Pliskova