Matilde Jorge #283Portugal00 – 2Jil Teichmann #130Switzerland2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Teichmann's superior clay-court pedigree and recent high-level form at Roland Garros give her a decisive edge over Jorge, who has struggled against lower-ranked opponents on this surface.

• Teichmann's career clay win rate is 218-107 (67.1%), while Jorge's is 28-30 (48.3%) on clay.
• Teichmann reached Roland Garros 4th round in May 2026, beating top-50 players without dropping a set before losing to Andreeva.
• Jorge's recent form includes losses to players ranked 456 and 221, and her best win in the last 15 matches was against No. 138 Kalieva.
• Teichmann's break point save rate (54.8%) and first serve win rate (62.7%) are slightly better than Jorge's (53.4% and 60.6%).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have been relatively short, and Teichmann's dominance on clay should lead to a swift victory with few games.

• In Teichmann's last 5 wins, the average total games per match was 19.6.
• Jorge's last 5 losses averaged 17.2 total games, with none exceeding 20 games.
• Teichmann's matches against lower-ranked opponents on clay often finish quickly; her 2026 clay matches average 19.8 total games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95

The read

Teichmann's ability to win comfortably and Jorge's tendency to lose by wide margins support a handicap of -5.5 games for Teichmann.

• Teichmann's average game margin in her last 5 wins is +6.2 games.
• Jorge's average game margin in her last 5 losses is -6.4 games.
• Teichmann's clay matches in 2026 show an average game differential of +4.8.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

If Teichmann wins the first set, the second set is likely to be similarly one-sided, staying under 9.5 games.

• Teichmann's second sets in straight-set wins average 8.7 games.
• Jorge's second sets in losses average 8.1 games, with only one exceeding 9 games in her last 5 defeats.
• Teichmann's ability to maintain pressure often leads to quick second sets.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Teichmann's strong starts and Jorge's tendency to fall behind early make a first-set win for Teichmann highly probable.

• Teichmann won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches, including against top-10 players.
• Jorge lost the first set in 5 of her last 7 matches, often by decisive margins.
• Teichmann's first set win rate on clay in 2026 is 80% (8-2).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Teichmann's consistency and Jorge's fading in later sets point to another set win for Teichmann, likely sealing the match.

• Teichmann won the second set in 7 of her last 10 matches, often closing out matches.
• Jorge lost the second set in 6 of her last 8 matches, including against lower-ranked players.
• Teichmann's second set win rate on clay in 2026 is 70%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Teichmann's ability to dominate early and her high first-set conversion rate suggest a straight-set victory is likely against a lower-ranked opponent with inconsistent form.

• Teichmann won 6 of her last 10 completed matches in straight sets, including against top-50 players.
• Jorge lost 4 of her last 6 matches in straight sets, with only one win against a top-200 opponent in that span.
• Teichmann's first set win conversion rate is 86%, indicating she often closes matches without dropping a set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The disparity in class and form suggests a straight-set win for Teichmann, making under 2.5 sets the most likely outcome.

• Teichmann has played only 2 three-set matches in her last 10, both against higher-ranked opponents.
• Jorge has gone to three sets in only 2 of her last 10 matches, losing both.
• Teichmann's straight-set win rate on clay in 2026 is 67%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25

The read

Given Teichmann's dominance and Jorge's struggles, a tiebreak is unlikely as sets are expected to be decided by breaks rather than close scorelines.

• Teichmann has played only 2 tiebreaks in her last 10 matches.
• Jorge has played 3 tiebreaks in her last 10 matches, losing two.
• Teichmann's matches on clay in 2026 have featured a tiebreak in only 20% of sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and their recent matches indicate a low total ace count, likely under 5.5.

• Teichmann averages 2.8 aces per match, while Jorge averages 2.5.
• In their last 5 matches, neither player has exceeded 4 aces in a single match.
• Combined ace rates suggest a total of around 5 aces per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Jorge's high double fault rate could push the total over 7.5, though Teichmann's lower rate makes this a borderline call.

• Jorge averages 8.2 double faults per match, while Teichmann averages 4.6.
• In Jorge's last 5 matches, she has averaged 7.4 double faults.
• Combined, their average double faults per match is 12.8, but recent form suggests a lower total.