Aleksandar Kovacevic #69United States11 – 2Francisco Cerundolo #27Argentina2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Cerundolo's superior return stats and higher ranking give him a structural edge, and his recent form includes wins over top-50 opponents, while Kovacevic has struggled against higher-ranked players on grass.

• Cerundolo has a 64.6% career win rate, significantly higher than Kovacevic's 53.2%.
• Cerundolo's return points won (42%) and break point conversion (43%) are superior to Kovacevic's (35% and 38%).
• Cerundolo won their only H2H meeting 6-4 6-4 on hard court in 2023.
• Cerundolo is the No. 7 seed and has same-event grass doubles practice, while Kovacevic entered as a lucky loser.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have shown the ability to push sets deep, and with Kovacevic's serve and Cerundolo's return, a competitive match with over 21.5 games is likely.

• Kovacevic's recent matches average 22.5 total games, with several going to tiebreaks or three sets.
• Cerundolo's recent matches average 21.8 total games, including a five-setter at Roland Garros.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50%, increasing the chance of extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00

The read

With both players holding serve effectively, the first set is likely to be tight, pushing the total games over 9.5.

• Kovacevic's last three first sets: 6-3, 7-6, 6-7, averaging 10.3 games.
• Cerundolo's last three first sets: 6-3, 2-6, 6-3, averaging 9.3 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 75% and 67%, suggesting holds are common.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00

The read

The second set is expected to be competitive with few breaks, leading to over 9.5 games.

• Kovacevic's last three second sets: 6-4, 6-4, 7-6, averaging 10.3 games.
• Cerundolo's last three second sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, averaging 10 games.
• Both players have similar second-serve win rates (around 51%), making breaks less frequent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Cerundolo's high first-set win conversion and Kovacevic's recent slow starts against strong servers suggest Cerundolo is likely to take the opening set.

• Cerundolo's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, indicating strong starts.
• Kovacevic's first-set win conversion is 83%, but his recent first sets include losses to Mpetshi Perricard and Hanfmann.
• Cerundolo won the first set 6-4 in their only H2H meeting.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Kovacevic's high ace rate and the grass surface should push the total aces over 12.5, with Cerundolo contributing a few as well.

• Kovacevic averages 10.8% aces per serve, with 3444 career aces in 453 matches (7.6 per match).
• Cerundolo averages 3.3% aces, but on grass, ace counts tend to rise.
• Kovacevic hit 5 aces in their H2H meeting on hard court.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve well and having similar tiebreak frequencies, a tiebreak in the match is likely.

• Kovacevic has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
• Cerundolo has played 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
• Both players have tiebreak win rates around 50%, indicating they often reach tiebreaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players' double fault rates suggest a combined total around 5-6, making over 5.5 a borderline call.

• Kovacevic has a 4.4% double fault rate, averaging about 3 per match.
• Cerundolo has a 3.7% double fault rate, averaging about 2.5 per match.
• On grass, double faults can increase due to the need for precise serving.