Clement Chidekh #200France11 – 2Colton Smith #176United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Colton Smith's superior recent form and grass-court record give him a clear edge over Clement Chidekh, who has struggled for consistency in recent weeks.

• Colton Smith has won 8 of his last 10 matches, with 6 straight-set wins in that span.
• Clement Chidekh is 3-7 in his last 10 matches, with 5 losses in straight sets.
• Smith holds a 9-5 career record on grass (64.3% win rate) vs Chidekh's 3-4 (42.9%).
• Smith's first-serve win rate (69%) and ace rate (6.7%) are superior to Chidekh's (67.7% and 3.7%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Smith's dominance, Chidekh's recent tight matches and both players' moderate break-point saving suggest a match that could exceed 21.5 games.

• Chidekh's last 5 matches have averaged 23.6 total games.
• Smith's last 5 matches have averaged 19.8 total games, but 3 of those were one-sided wins.
• Both players have break-point save rates below 65%, suggesting potential for extended games.
• No H2H data, but both have shown ability to push sets deep in recent losses.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve well on first serves, the first set could be competitive enough to go over 9.5 games.

• Chidekh's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games.
• Smith's last 5 first sets have averaged 8.6 games, but 3 were 6-3 or 6-2.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 68-69%, which can lead to tight sets.
• Grass often produces tiebreaks or 7-5 sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Smith's strong start tendency and Chidekh's recent first-set struggles make Smith the likely set 1 winner.

• Smith has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
• Chidekh has lost the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches.
• Smith's first-set win conversion rate for his career is 91%, compared to Chidekh's 90%.
• On grass, Smith's serve is more effective, aiding early-set leads.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Smith's high ace rate and the grass surface should push the total aces over 8.5, even with Chidekh's lower output.

• Smith averages 6.7 aces per match (ace rate 6.7%).
• Chidekh averages 3.7 aces per match (ace rate 3.7%).
• On grass, ace rates typically increase due to faster surfaces.
• Combined, their average aces per match would be around 10.4, adjusted for surface.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Chidekh's high double-fault rate alone makes over 5.5 likely, and Smith contributes enough to push the total over.

• Chidekh averages 4.7 double faults per match (double fault rate 4.7%).
• Smith averages 3.2 double faults per match (double fault rate 3.2%).
• Combined average is 7.9 double faults per match.
• Grass can sometimes lead to more double faults due to lower bounce and faster conditions.