Alexander Donski #538Canada22 – 0Filip Pieczonka #1001Poland0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Donski's superior recent form on clay and higher quality of opposition in his wins give him a clear edge, despite Pieczonka's home wildcard status and potential fatigue from back-to-back matches.

• Donski has won 6 of his last 8 matches, all on clay, with wins over opponents ranked 309, 437, 682, 773, 850, and a qualifier.
• Pieczonka's last 15 matches show a 5-10 record, with only 2 wins against players ranked inside the top 500 (461 and 559).
• Donski's career clay win percentage is 48.6% (68-72), while Pieczonka's is 44.4% (40-50), but Donski's recent clay form is stronger.
• Pieczonka is playing back-to-back days in qualifying, while Donski's status is uncertain but he is not listed as playing Sunday, potentially giving him a rest advantage.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

If Donski wins the first set as predicted, Pieczonka's tendency to fight back in the second set could push the game total over 9.5.

• Donski's last 8 second sets on clay have averaged 9.8 games, with 4 of 8 going over 9.5 games.
• Pieczonka's last 15 second sets have averaged 9.1 games, with 6 of 15 going over 9.5 games.
• In matches where Pieczonka loses the first set, his second sets tend to be more competitive, averaging 10.2 games in those scenarios.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70

The read

Donski's tendency to start strong in recent clay matches and Pieczonka's vulnerability early in matches suggest a slight edge for Donski in the opening set.

• Donski has won the first set in 5 of his last 8 matches, including against opponents ranked 309 and 437.
• Pieczonka has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches, often against higher-ranked opponents.
• Donski's first set win conversion rate is 86% for his career, indicating he closes out matches well when leading.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pieczonka's elevated double fault rate, combined with Donski's moderate rate, makes over 5.5 double faults likely in a match expected to have many service games.

• Donski averages 0.27 double faults per game (5.5% double fault rate) and Pieczonka averages 0.39 double faults per game (7.8% double fault rate).
• In a projected 22+ game match, combined double faults would be around 7-8 based on their rates.
• Pieczonka's higher double fault rate (7.8%) is a significant contributor, especially in pressure situations on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging around 0.4 aces per game and a match expected to exceed 21 games, the total aces are likely to surpass 7.5.

• Donski averages 0.42 aces per game (8.5% ace rate) and Pieczonka averages 0.40 aces per game (8% ace rate).
• In a projected 22+ game match, combined aces would be around 9-10 based on their rates.
• Both players have similar ace rates, and clay typically reduces ace counts, but their rates are moderate enough to expect over 7.5 in a longer match.