Jennifer Ruggeri #213Italy22 – 1Yelyzaveta Kotliar #440Ukraine1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33

The read

Ruggeri's superior recent form (6 wins in last 7, all on clay) and higher ranking (213 vs 440) give her a clear edge, despite Kotliar's Rabat breakthrough.

• Ruggeri is 20-10 on clay in 2026, while Kotliar is 23-12 on clay in 2026.
• Ruggeri has won 6 of her last 7 matches, all on clay, with dominant scorelines.
• Kotliar lost her last two clay matches in straight sets to lower-ranked opponents.
• Ruggeri holds a career clay win percentage of 130-75 (63.4%) vs Kotliar's 84-48 (63.6%), but Ruggeri's recent form is stronger.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches trend toward higher game totals, and their similar break-point stats indicate a competitive match likely to surpass 20.5 games.

• Ruggeri's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 games, with 3 exceeding 20.5.
• Kotliar's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 games, with 4 exceeding 20.5.
• Both players have break-point conversion rates above 50%, suggesting competitive games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be closely contested, with both players' serve stats and recent set lengths pointing to over 9.5 games.

• Ruggeri's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games.
• Kotliar's last 5 first sets averaged 10.4 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 57-58%, leading to extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have very low ace rates, making it highly unlikely they combine for more than 5 aces.

• Ruggeri averages 1.2 aces per match (ace rate 1.2%).
• Kotliar averages 0.5 aces per match (ace rate 0.5%).
• Combined, they average less than 2 aces per match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double-fault rates, making it likely they will combine for more than 7.5 double faults.

• Ruggeri averages 7.5 double faults per match (double fault rate 7.5%).
• Kotliar averages 7.0 double faults per match (double fault rate 7.0%).
• Combined, they average over 14 double faults per match.