ATP HalleFinished

Predictions graded

Mattia Bellucci #78Italy2Mikhail Kukushkin #303Kazakhstan0

Sets 6-4 · 6-3Sat 13 Jun 2026, 13:40 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions9–190%

Edges7–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMattia Bellucci · 225 places

Mattia Bellucci

Italy

Career-high No. 63 came on July 14, 2025. ATP Tour bio says he broke into the Top 100 in late 2024 and reached his first ATP 500 semifinal in Rotterdam in February 2025.

Current ranking: #78
Peak ranking: #63 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 175 cm

Mikhail Kukushkin

Kazakhstan

Career-high No. 39 came on February 25, 2019. He won two Challenger titles in 2024, and his public profile says he announced in June 2026 that Almaty will be his final event.

Current ranking: #303
Peak ranking: #39 · 2019
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jun 2026, 10:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Bellucci’s strong grass form and dominant H2H make him a heavy favorite over the retiring Kukushkin.

Best betting value is on under 21.5 total games and under 2.5 sets, while avoiding Kukushkin’s moneyline and the over on games.

Context

Bellucci beat No. 59 Hanfmann 7-5 6-7 6-2 and No. 22 Davidovich Fokina 6-2 6-7 6-1 in Halle qualifying this week.
- He won the first set in both matches and held serve efficiently, losing serve only three times across the two wins.
- His 2026 grass record is now 2-2, with the two losses coming against top-10 Fritz and a surprise defeat to Bolt, but his current level is high.
Kukushkin has not played a grass match in 2026; his last grass event was Wimbledon 2025 qualifying, where he went 1-1.
- In 2025, he was 1-3 on grass, with his only win coming against a player ranked outside the top 200.
- His last grass win was in June 2024 at Ilkley Challenger, and he has lost six of his last eight completed matches in straight sets.
Bellucci beat Kukushkin 6-1 6-3 in August 2024 at a Challenger event on hard court.
- Bellucci won 67% of first-serve points and converted 4 of 7 break points in that match.
- Kukushkin's ranking has since dropped from around 200 to 303, while Bellucci has risen to a career-high 78.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Bellucci's superior recent grass form, higher ranking (78 vs 303), and dominant H2H win in 2024 give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Bellucci is 2-2 on grass in 2026 with wins over Hanfmann (rank 59) and Davidovich Fokina (rank 22) in Halle qualifying this week.
- Kukushkin has not played a grass match in 2026 and was 1-3 on grass in 2025, with his last grass win coming in 2024.
- Bellucci holds a 1-1 H2H edge, winning their most recent meeting 6-1 6-3 on hard in August 2024.
- Bellucci's return points won (38% career) and break point conversion (39.4%) are slightly better than Kukushkin's (39%, 42.5%) but Bellucci's recent form against top-60 opponents is stronger.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent matches and their H2H history point to a relatively quick match with few games.
- Bellucci's two straight-set wins in Halle averaged 17.5 games per match.
- Kukushkin's last 5 losses averaged 17.2 games per match, with none exceeding 22 games.
- The 2024 H2H had only 16 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bellucci's ability to break early and Kukushkin's weak serve on grass should keep the first set short.
- In Bellucci's last two straight-set wins, set 1 had 10 and 8 games.
- Kukushkin's last 5 first sets averaged 8.6 games, with 3 of 5 under 9.5.
- The 2024 H2H first set had only 7 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Bellucci's form and Kukushkin's struggles suggest Bellucci can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Bellucci's average game margin in his two straight-set Halle wins was +5.5 games.
- Kukushkin's average game margin in his last 5 losses was -5.4 games.
- The 2024 H2H had a game margin of +8 for Bellucci.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMattia Bellucci -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Bellucci maintains pressure, the second set could also be short, though Kukushkin may fight harder to extend the match.
- Bellucci's last two second sets had 8 and 9 games.
- Kukushkin's last 5 second sets averaged 8.4 games, with 3 under 9.5.
- The 2024 H2H second set had 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Bellucci's strong starts in recent matches and Kukushkin's poor first-set record make Bellucci the clear favorite for set 1.
- Bellucci won the first set in 3 of his last 4 matches, including both Halle qualifying wins.
- Kukushkin lost the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches.
- Bellucci's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating he closes out matches well after winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Bellucci's superior serve and recent set-winning momentum should carry him through set 2 as well.
- Bellucci won the second set in both of his Halle qualifying matches.
- Kukushkin has lost the second set in 5 of his last 7 matches.
- Bellucci's win-on-first-serve percentage (72.4%) is higher than Kukushkin's (67.6%), giving him an edge in holding serve.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMattia BellucciEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
The match is likely to end in two sets given Bellucci's dominance and Kukushkin's poor form.
- Bellucci has won his last two matches in straight sets.
- Kukushkin has lost 6 of his last 8 matches in straight sets.
- The 2024 H2H was a straight-set win for Bellucci.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Bellucci's current grass form and Kukushkin's frequent straight-set losses suggest a 2-0 outcome is more likely than a three-setter.
- Bellucci won his last two Halle qualifying matches in straight sets (vs Hanfmann and Davidovich Fokina).
- Kukushkin has lost 6 of his last 8 completed matches in straight sets, often struggling to win more than 5 games per set.
- In their 2024 H2H, Bellucci won 6-1 6-3, losing only 4 games.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMattia Bellucci 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected dominance by Bellucci, a tiebreak is unlikely, as he should win sets more comfortably.
- Bellucci's recent straight-set wins had no tiebreaks.
- Kukushkin has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
- Bellucci's tiebreak win rate is 56%, but he has avoided them in his last two matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making it likely they stay under 5.5 combined.
- Bellucci's double fault rate is 4.6% (career), averaging ~2-3 per match.
- Kukushkin's double fault rate is only 1.9%, one of the lowest on tour.
- In their two H2H matches, they combined for 5 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Market price1.80Estimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

W6-1 6-3Mattia Bellucci#78vMikhail Kukushkin#303Aug 15, 2024

L6-4 7-6(4)Mattia Bellucci#78vMikhail Kukushkin#303Aug 22, 2023

2 total meetings

Mattia Bellucci

7W 8L

5-7 7-5 7-5#9Taylor Fritz

7-5 6-7(4) 6-2#59Yannick Hanfmann

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#22Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-3 6-0#157Alex Bolt

6-3 7-6(4) 6-3#92Quentin Halys

6-4 6-3#58Martin Landaluce

5-7 6-2 6-3#30Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-4 6-4#63Roman Andres Burruchaga

7-5 6-1#193Gianluca Cadenasso

6-4 1-6 7-5#66Lorenzo Sonego

6-2 6-4#103Damir Dzumhur

6-3 7-5#314Jonas Forejtek

7-6(1) 6-4#70Dino Prizmic

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#134Stefano Travaglia

6-3 6-4#231Andrea Guerrieri

Mikhail Kukushkin

7W 8L

7-6(8) 6-7(2) 7-6(2)#154Mark Lajal

7-6(4) 6-3#729Tianhui Zhang

6-3 6-3#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-3 6-2#117Leandro Riedi

1-6 6-2 6-3#248Pavel Kotov

6-3 7-6(5)#499Blake Ellis

4-6 6-4 6-1#434Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#171Daniil Glinka

6-1 3-6 7-5#441Enrico Dalla Valle

6-1 3-6 6-2#191Roberto Carballes Baena

7-6(4) 6-4#230Edas Butvilas

1-0 ret.#277George Loffhagen

6-3 6-2#98Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-1#192Giulio Zeppieri

6-7(5) 6-2 7-6(3)#249Hynek Barton

Mattia Bellucci

Mikhail Kukushkin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 5.5

Under 21.5

Under 2.5

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci

Mattia Bellucci -3.5

Mattia Bellucci 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Mikhail Kukushkin @ 3.75

Head-to-Head

Mattia Bellucci

Mikhail Kukushkin