Katie Boulter #73United Kingdom00 – 2Donna Vekic #722

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Boulter's superior grass pedigree, current form including a top-2 win, and H2H edge give her a slight advantage despite fatigue concerns.

• Boulter leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-4 6-3 on hard in 2024.
• Boulter's grass win rate is 58-23 career, Vekic 61-37; Boulter 3-0 on grass in 2026, Vekic 4-1.
• Boulter just beat world No.2 Rybakina on grass, showing peak level.
• Vekic's recent losses to Blinkova and Osaka on grass raise questions.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Recent matches for both players have been competitive, and grass often leads to tight sets, pushing total games over 21.5.

• Boulter's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games.
• Vekic's last 5 matches averaged 20.4 games.
• Both players have strong hold rates on grass, with break point save rates around 55%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90

The read

The first set is likely to be closely contested given both players' serving strength and recent tight opening sets.

• Boulter's last 5 first sets: 7-5, 6-1, 3-6, 5-7, 6-4 (avg 9.8 games).
• Vekic's last 5 first sets: 6-4, 7-6, 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 (avg 9.4 games).
• Both players have first serve win rates around 68% on grass.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been competitive in recent matches, and with fatigue potentially a factor, extended games are possible.

• Boulter's last 5 second sets: 2-6, 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 4-6 (avg 9.6 games).
• Vekic's last 5 second sets: 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 9.2 games).
• Both players have similar second serve win rates around 45%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Boulter's recent pattern of three-set matches and the competitive nature of this semi-final make a deciding set likely.

• Boulter's last 5 matches: 4 three-setters.
• Vekic's last 5 matches: 2 three-setters.
• Boulter's deciding set win rate is 59%, Vekic's 54%.