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Predictions graded

Daria Kasatkina #66Australia0Anna Blinkova #105Russia2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Sat 13 Jun 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedQ1Grass

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaria Kasatkina · 39 places

Daria Kasatkina

Australia

Former world No. 8, reached on 24 October 2022. WTA lists clay as her favorite surface. A February 2026 hip withdrawal is older background context rather than a current-tournament alert, and she won the La Bisbal WTA 125 in May after returning.

Current ranking: #66
Peak ranking: #8 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Anna Blinkova

Russia

Former world No. 34, reached on 7 August 2023. WTA says she has no surface preference and is comfortable across surfaces. Her current public profile points more to a ranking drop from that peak than to a clearly sourced active injury decline.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #34 · 2023
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: All surfaces equally
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Jun 2026, 10:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Kasatkina's superior grass record, dominant H2H return stats, and recent title form make her a strong favorite against Blinkova, who is struggling with momentum after a heavy Queen's loss.

The best betting value is under 20.5 total games, given both players' trend toward quick, low-scoring matches, with additional edges in set 1 under 9.5 games and Kasatkina to win the first set.

Context

Kasatkina won the La Bisbal d'Emporda WTA 125 in May 2026, her most recent title.
- She lost to Robin Montgomery on grass on 8 June 2026, gaining current surface experience without deep fatigue.
- Her last-10 record is 7-3, including wins over top-40 players Samsonova and Cristian.
Blinkova's last match was a 6-0 6-3 loss to Emma Raducanu on 9 June 2026.
- She won two qualifying matches at Queen's before that loss, adding to her recent workload.
- Her last-10 record is 4-6, with four of those losses coming in straight sets.
Kasatkina won both H2H matches in straight sets, 6-1 6-4 and 6-2 7-5.
- She won 65% of return points and converted 67% of break points across the two matches.
- Blinkova's first-serve percentage was only 47% in those matches, and she won just 40% of first-serve points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Kasatkina's superior grass pedigree, dominant H2H return numbers, and stronger recent form give her a clear edge in this qualifying match.
- Kasatkina leads H2H 2-0, both on hard, with dominant return stats (65% return points won, 67% break point conversion).
- Kasatkina has a 37-16 career grass record (69.8% win rate) vs Blinkova's 30-24 (55.6%), and Kasatkina's 2024 grass season was 8-2.
- Kasatkina's recent form includes a WTA 125 title in May 2026 and a 7-3 record in her last 10 matches, while Blinkova is 4-6 with heavy losses to top-50 opponents.
- Blinkova's last match was a 6-0 6-3 loss to Raducanu on grass, and she has a 2-1 grass record in 2026 with the wins over lower-ranked players.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
The pattern of quick first sets in both players' recent matches and H2H suggests a sub-9.5 game opening set.
- Kasatkina's last 8 first sets won averaged 8.1 games, with 6 of those 8 sets finishing under 9.5 games.
- Blinkova's last 7 first sets lost averaged 7.9 games, with 6 of those 7 sets finishing under 9.5 games.
- H2H first sets were 7 games (6-1) and 8 games (6-2).
- On grass in 2024, Kasatkina's first sets averaged 8.4 games, and Blinkova's averaged 8.1 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Both players' recent matches and H2H history trend toward quick, low-game contests, making under 20.5 games likely.
- Kasatkina's last 5 wins averaged 18.4 total games, with 4 of those 5 matches finishing under 20.5 games.
- Blinkova's last 5 losses averaged 16.8 total games, with all 5 finishing under 20.5 games.
- H2H matches averaged 17.5 total games (6-1 6-4 and 6-2 7-5).
- On grass, Kasatkina's 2024 matches averaged 19.2 games, and Blinkova's 2024 grass matches averaged 18.8 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Kasatkina's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins against lower-ranked opponents supports a -3.5 game handicap cover.
- Kasatkina's last 5 wins had an average game margin of +5.2 games, with 4 of those 5 wins covering a -3.5 handicap.
- Blinkova's last 5 losses had an average game margin of -6.4 games, with all 5 losses failing to cover a +3.5 handicap.
- H2H matches had game margins of +8 (6-1 6-4) and +4 (6-2 7-5), both covering -3.5.
- On grass, Kasatkina's 2024 wins had an average margin of +4.1 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaria Kasatkina -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Given the likelihood of a straight-set win, the second set is expected to follow the trend of low-game totals seen in both players' recent matches.
- In Kasatkina's last 7 straight-set wins, the second set averaged 8.3 games, with 5 of those 7 sets under 9.5 games.
- Blinkova's last 6 straight-set losses saw second sets average 8.0 games, with 5 of those 6 sets under 9.5 games.
- H2H second sets were 10 games (6-4) and 12 games (7-5), but both players' current form suggests quicker finishes.
- Kasatkina's 2024 grass second sets averaged 8.7 games, and Blinkova's averaged 8.5 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kasatkina's strong first-set record and Blinkova's poor starts make Kasatkina the clear favorite to take the opening set.
- Kasatkina has won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches, including against top-40 opponents Samsonova and Cristian.
- Blinkova has lost the first set in 7 of her last 10 matches, with 5 of those losses by a margin of 6-3 or worse.
- Kasatkina's career first-set win rate on grass is 68% (25-12), while Blinkova's is 48% (13-14).
- In H2H, Kasatkina won the first set 6-1 and 6-2.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDaria KasatkinaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Kasatkina's straight-set dominance in recent wins and H2H, combined with Blinkova's frequent straight-set losses, supports a 2-0 outcome.
- Kasatkina has won 5 of her last 7 matches in straight sets, including all three wins against top-100 opponents in that span.
- Blinkova has lost 6 of her last 8 matches in straight sets, with 4 of those losses coming against players ranked outside the top 50.
- In their two H2H meetings, Kasatkina won 6-1 6-4 and 6-2 7-5, both in straight sets.
- Kasatkina's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career, and she has won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostDaria Kasatkina 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low tiebreak frequency in both players' recent matches and H2H, combined with expected straight-set outcome, makes a tiebreak unlikely.
- Kasatkina's career tiebreak rate is 49% (win pct), and she has played a tiebreak in only 2 of her last 15 matches.
- Blinkova's career tiebreak rate is 50%, and she has played a tiebreak in 3 of her last 15 matches.
- In their two H2H matches, there were no tiebreaks.
- On grass, tiebreak frequency is slightly higher, but both players' recent sets have been decisive: Kasatkina's last 20 sets included 1 tiebreak, Blinkova's last 20 sets included 2.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and their H2H and recent match data point to a combined total well under 6.5 aces.
- Kasatkina's ace rate is 2.2% (career 904 aces in 669 matches, ~1.35 per match), and Blinkova's is 3.4% (1367 aces in 607 matches, ~2.25 per match).
- In their two H2H matches, they combined for 2 total aces (1 each).
- On grass, ace counts tend to be slightly higher, but both players rely more on placement than power; Kasatkina averaged 1.8 aces per match on grass in 2024, Blinkova 2.1.
- Recent matches: Kasatkina's last 5 matches averaged 1.2 aces, Blinkova's last 5 averaged 2.0 aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high double fault rates, and their H2H history shows a combined average well over 7.5, making the over likely.
- Kasatkina's double fault rate is 5.9% (career 2417 in 669 matches, ~3.6 per match), and Blinkova's is 6.6% (2672 in 607 matches, ~4.4 per match).
- In H2H, they combined for 23 double faults in 2 matches (14 by Kasatkina, 9 by Blinkova), averaging 11.5 per match.
- On grass, both players' double fault rates tend to increase slightly due to lower bounce; Kasatkina averaged 4.1 per match on grass in 2024, Blinkova 4.8.
- Recent matches: Kasatkina's last 5 matches averaged 3.8 double faults, Blinkova's last 5 averaged 4.6.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-1 6-4Daria Kasatkina#66vAnna Blinkova#105Jul 29, 2025

W6-2 7-5Daria Kasatkina#66vAnna Blinkova#105Aug 9, 2023

2 total meetings

Daria Kasatkina

11W 4L

5-7 6-0 6-4#484Robin Montgomery

6-0 7-5#1Aryna Sabalenka

7-5 7-6(11)#171Susan Bandecchi

6-4 6-4#67Zeynep Sonmez

7-6(3) 3-6 6-2#38Jaqueline Cristian

6-1 6-3#62Peyton Stearns

7-5 6-3#35Liudmila Samsonova

6-4 6-2#85Anastasia Zakharova

6-3 6-1#591Valentina Steiner

6-2 6-3#59Caty McNally

2-6 6-3 7-5#79Tamara Korpatsch

6-2 6-0#247Sara Sorribes Tormo

4-6 6-0 6-4#129Alina Charaeva

6-2 6-2#220Laura Pigossi

6-2 3-6 7-6(5)#99Emiliana Arango

Anna Blinkova

7W 8L

6-0 6-3#42Emma Raducanu

6-2 6-4#76Donna Vekic

6-1 6-3#643Jodie Anna Burrage

6-3 6-1#57Yuliia Starodubtseva

7-5 6-4#123Aliaksandra Sasnovich

7-6(4) 6-4#23Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-1 6-2#118Mayar Sherif

6-3 6-2#47Tereza Valentova

6-3 4-6 6-2#112Yue Yuan

6-4 2-6 6-1#206Celine Naef

7-6(1) 6-1#283Julie Belgraver

6-2 6-2#32Katerina Siniakova

6-2 3-6 7-5#135Elvina Kalieva

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#177Nuria Brancaccio

7-5 6-1#114Dominika Salkova

Daria Kasatkina

Anna Blinkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Daria Kasatkina

Under 9.5

Under 20.5

Under 9.5

Daria Kasatkina 2-0

Daria Kasatkina

Daria Kasatkina -3.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Daria Kasatkina

Anna Blinkova