Francesco Forti #396Italy22 – 0Andrea Guerrieri #231Italy0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have been high in total games, and their tiebreak tendencies on clay suggest a match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Forti's last 5 matches averaged 24.4 total games; Guerrieri's averaged 22.6.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates: Forti 51% career, Guerrieri 46%, and Forti has played 5 tiebreaks in last 5 matches.
• Clay surface tends to produce longer rallies and more games, especially between evenly matched returners.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Forti's competitive recent form and Guerrieri's tendency for close wins suggest Forti will keep the game margin within 3.5.

• Forti's last 5 losses: game differentials of -8, -6, -6, -6, -3 (avg -5.8), but against stronger opponents.
• Guerrieri's last 5 wins: game differentials of +3, +2, +7, +3, +7 (avg +4.4), but Forti is a tougher opponent than most.
• Forti has covered +3.5 in 4 of his last 5 matches overall.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first sets for both players have consistently gone over 9.5 games, driven by frequent tiebreaks and close scorelines.

• Forti's last 5 set 1 games: 10, 12, 13, 10, 7 (avg 10.4); Guerrieri's: 13, 9, 12, 13, 7 (avg 10.8).
• Both players have played tiebreaks in 3 of their last 5 first sets.
• Clay reduces service dominance, increasing likelihood of extended sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Historical second-set game totals for both players trend above 9.5, supported by their competitive clay-court styles.

• Forti's last 5 set 2 games: 13, 10, 13, 10, 9 (avg 11.0); Guerrieri's: 12, 9, 12, 11, 7 (avg 10.2).
• In Bo3 matches, second sets often remain competitive even after a first-set loss.
• Both players have shown ability to extend sets on clay, with multiple 7-5 or 7-6 scorelines.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches heavily feature tiebreaks, making it very likely at least one set goes to a breaker.

• Forti has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches (80%).
• Guerrieri has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches (60%).
• Career tiebreak rates: Forti 51% win, Guerrieri 46% win, indicating frequent tiebreak appearances.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Low ace rates for both players on a slow clay surface make a total under 8.5 aces highly probable.

• Forti ace rate: 7% (career), Guerrieri ace rate: 1.9% (career) – both low.
• Clay surface reduces ace counts significantly.
• In recent matches, neither player has averaged more than 3 aces per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Combined double fault rates suggest a total above 5.5 is likely, especially if the match is tight and extended.

• Forti double fault rate: 4.2% (career), Guerrieri: 5.5% (career).
• In a typical 22-game match, expected double faults: Forti ~2.5, Guerrieri ~3.5, totaling ~6.
• Pressure situations in close matches can increase double faults.