Maxim Mrva #312Czechia22 – 0Chun Hsin Tseng #245Taiwan0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Tseng's superior clay-court pedigree and more consistent recent form give him a moderate edge over the younger Mrva.

• Tseng has a 14-12 clay record in 2026 vs Mrva's 5-8, showing stronger surface fit.
• Tseng's career clay win% is 155-? (56.9% overall) with extensive Challenger experience; Mrva is 39-? on clay.
• Last 5 matches: Tseng 3-2 with wins over Kuzmanov, Echargui, Martin Tiffon; Mrva 2-3 with losses to Baez, Poljicak.
• Tseng's serve stats: 59.3% first serve, 67.6% win on first, 51.2% on second; Mrva: 55%, 63.9%, 45.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their similar ranking levels point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Mrva's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games; Tseng's averaged 22.6.
• Both players have high deciding-set rates: Mrva 57%, Tseng 54%, indicating close matches.
• In Bo3 clay matches, both tend to play tight sets with multiple breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in tight opening sets, making over 9.5 games a likely outcome.

• Mrva's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 4-6, 6-4, 5-7, 3-6 (avg 10.2 games).
• Tseng's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 6-7, 6-4, 5-7, 2-6 (avg 10.4 games).
• Both have first-set tiebreak rates around 20% in recent matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

The high frequency of deciding sets in both players' recent matches suggests this match is more likely than not to go the distance.

• Mrva has gone to a deciding set in 3 of his last 5 matches; Tseng in 3 of his last 5.
• Mrva's deciding set win rate is 57%, Tseng's is 54%, indicating both are comfortable in three-setters.
• Head-to-head is non-existent, but both have similar competitive profiles.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Tseng's recent trend of starting matches well and his overall edge in clay-court experience suggest he is slightly more likely to take the opener.

• Tseng has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches; Mrva in 2 of his last 5.
• Tseng's first-set win conversion rate is 84% career, same as Mrva's, but Tseng faces lower-ranked opponents more consistently.
• On clay in 2026, Tseng's first-set performance has been strong in wins.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20

The read

The high incidence of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches indicates a strong likelihood of at least one tiebreak in this contest.

• Mrva has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches; Tseng in 3 of his last 5.
• Mrva's career tiebreak win rate is 52%, Tseng's is 48%.
• Both players have high first-set tiebreak frequency in recent matches.